Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, June 27, 2014 at 4:00 PM
I haven’t had a chance yet this baseball season to talk about betting volume. I think most of you who are regular students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping are already disciplined enough to monitor your bankrolls intelligently. Just be reading the coursework you’ve proven that you prefer a “thinking man’s” approach to sports betting rather than that of a square.
But, there’s still some fine-tuning that can be done to help you find the sweet spot for total action. You don’t want to bet too many games, wandering into territory where you don’t really have an edge. You don’t want to bet too few games when you clearly do have an edge. How do you find where the porridge is just right?
Here are some tips:
*Be more aggressive against opening lines than you are once the market has settled…particularly if history has shown that you’re in synch with the sharps. Oddsmakers make more mistakes than sharps do…so you want to bet those mistakes right when they go up on the board. Betting a line AFTER the sharps have hit it often takes away all of you value.
Quick example: let’s say that oddsmakers put up a favorite at -140, and you think the line should be -170. Obviously betting right away is the thing to do. If you don’t get to the window until after sharps have bet the game up to -160, then most of your value is gone. And, if your own methodology is off by a little bit (meaning your grading of -170 is a big high in reality, and the “right” line is only -160), then all of the value is actually gone.
Very few mistakes sit on the board all day long. Sharps take them away. Don’t bet a lot of plays against a settled board. Action-minded players should get in early against an unsettled board.
*Only be aggressive in the last 30 minutes before closing if you’re convinced that the public has driven the line too far in the wrong direction. This is much more common in football (particularly the NFL), where square money influences the numbers. In baseball, this is more common for national TV games involving big city teams.
Many sharps will “buy back” some of their initial investments to maximize their value or to create shots at free money (laying -130 early, but then buying back on the dog at +140 after a big line move means you’re risking nothing to win “10 free cents” if the underdog wins…multiplied by all of your actual dollars of course!).
*Try to focus on your very best plays until you’re completely comfortable with life as a gambler. Honestly, many of you will never find that comfort zone completely because you’re treating this as a profitable hobby rather than a lifestyle. The Dean of Sports Handicapping understands that. Most law school students don’t argue in front of the Supreme Court. Most handicapping students don’t become full-fledged big money sharps even if they do become profitable bettors.
My best advice is to isolate your biggest gradings, then keep a separate list of your “leans.” If the leans are winning…then it’s okay to start including them…maybe going from 1-3 strong bets per day to 4-5. Most of you will find that your leans are break-even at best, or losing at worst. And, you’ll be glad you culled them out of the mix.
In the big picture, different approaches call for different volume. Those of you who can bet openers should be more aggressive-minded knowing you can buy back later if needed. Those of you who can’t bet openers should respect the market and be conservative with your baseball action.
For anyone who needs help finding the best betting options on the board every night, my daily BEST BETS are available for purchase right here at this very website with your major credit card. Baseball profits can magnify very quickly because you can win money seven days a week. If you have any questions about my longer term programs, please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
Expect a mix of baseball analysis and football preparation work through the summer here in the coursework. I greatly appreciate all the hard work you put into your handicapping…and your continued attendance for my sports betting and handicapping tutorials. See you again early next week!