Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 7:00 PM
As was the case a year ago when these two teams met, the final scoreboard margins can be far away from Las Vegas spreads because of the explosive scoring potential from both the San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat. San Antonio has won straight up by 15 and 19 points in their victories, representing pointspread covers of 10 and 23 points. Miami’s win was as a road underdog, in a 6-point cover that would have been nine if not for a Spurs’ trey at the buzzer.
If you can get in synch with the teams, you don’t have to worry about the pointspread!
The most simple approach to that would be the zig-zag. Clearly these teams are alternating big games. And, you have probably heard that the recent edition of the Miami Heat is one of THE BEST BOUNCE-BACK TEAMS in sports history! They’re great off a loss. They’re great when they’re back are pushed up hardest against the wall. Thursday Night’s Game Four would seem to present the ultimate “bet Miami BIG” green flag.
The problems with that line of thinking are:
*Miami is resting way too much of its offensive burden on LeBron James right now. Others aren’t getting the job done (particularly Mario Chalmers). If you’re betting on Miami, LeBron HAS to have another huge game. There’s no margin for error.
*Miami (and LeBron) are playing their third game in five days, in what’s been a very high intensity series even if two of the final scores were blowouts. LeBron played very tired in the fourth quarter Tuesday. Now he’s coming back after just one day off in a spot where he has to show up in his Superman cape and keep it on until the post-game press conference.
*Miami’s perimeter defense has struggled to prevent open looks. San Antonio is a stunning 35 of 72 on treys, still a shade below 50%. If the defensive legs haven’t been able to hold up when guarding the perimeter during less demanding schedule stretches, what’s going to happen team-wide to Miami in its third game in five nights?
*San Antonio has a variety of weapons, as they flaunted in their Game Three blowout. Suddenly Boris Diaw is scary! Kawhi Leonard has arrived. And, the old guys are still lethal when they’re on the floor even if they’re playing a few minutes less per game than they had in the past. If Tim Duncan has a bad game, others can pick up the slack. If LeBron James has a bad game, Miami loses by double digits.
The market has a lot of respect for Miami’s bounce-back capabilities, and has lifted the Game Four line from where it was in Game Three.
Las Vegas Line: Miami by 5, total of 197.5
We’ve seen as high as Miami by 5.5. By the time you read this, it wouldn’t surprise us if the number has moved a half-a-point in either direction. Those respecting Miami are happy at -5. Those who use a more fundamental X’s and O’s approach can easily find reasons to take San Antonio. This could be a very heavily bet game given the confidence levels that bettors on either side of the equation will have on their assessments.
JIM HURLEY always has an extremely high confidence level because he’s been picking winners for his HIGH ROLLER clients for more than 25 years! He can’t win ‘em all (but he has so far in this series!). He's certain he’s going to GET YOU THE MONEY over the long haul. And, he’s head-over-heels about his pick in Thursday Night’s game based on information coming in from his sources in South Florida.
You can purchase the final word for Thursday right here at the website with your credit card. If you want to build your bankroll with some day baseball, take care of business EARLY before the afternoon action starts. If you have any questions about combination packages for the summer or early-bird football, call us in the office at 1-888-777-4155.
It’s back to baseball Friday and Saturday here in the NOTEBOOK. Basketball resumes Sunday with Game Five in San Antonio. Here’s our updated schedule for the next several days:
Friday: MLB Series Preview: Washington at St. Louis
Saturday: TV Preview: LA Angels at Atlanta on FOX
Sunday: NBA Finals Game 5
Monday: MLB Series Preview: Kansas City at Detroit
Tuesday: NBA Finals Game 6 (if necessary)
Will we be back to square one in the NBA Finals after Thursday Night, with the Spurs and Heat set for a best two-of-three to determine the winner? Or, will San Antonio’s depth and dangerous long range shooting virtually seal the deal with another road victory? When championships are on the line, YOU NEED WORLD CHAMPION HANDICAPPER JIM HURLEY!