Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, June 9, 2014 at 6:00 PM
I’ve been telling you for years here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping that you have to focus on GAMEBREAKERS and PLAYMAKERS when trying to pick winners. There’s probably no better example of that than what we’re seeing from LeBron James right now in the NBA Playoffs. He’s arguably the single most dominant athlete in any sport in terms of determining who wins and covers the pointspread.
NFL quarterbacks play a huge role, but don’t play defense!
MLB pitchers play a huge role, every fifth day or as ninth inning specialists
NHL goalies can get hot, but they can’t score the game winner
LeBron James can be a force on both sides of the floor…and he’s obviously the most dynamic scoring force of the current era. I’ll save discussions about “best ever” for another time. We’re trying to pick winners RIGHT NOW in the NBA Finals, and that means smart handicappers have to figure out what LeBron can, or CAN’T do from this point forward in the series.
The first two games tell that story very well. If he’s at his best, he can control the flow of the game almost by himself. If he’s physically worn down, he CAN’T do that and his team will lose. It seems very clear right now that Miami is the superior of the two teams when LeBron is at his best, but San Antonio is the superior of the two teams when he isn’t. Picking winners in Games 3-7 (if it goes the distance) will involve determine when he will or won’t be at his best.
And, I very strongly believe that the nature of the game-by-game schedule will provide some hints in that regard:
Game Three: Tuesday, after only one day off with travel
Game Four: Thursday, after only one day off, and third game in five days
Game Five: Sunday, after an important two days off for travel
Game Six: Tuesday, after only one day off for travel, and fifth game in 10 days
Game Seven: Thursday, after only one day off for travel, and sixth game in 12 days
LeBron will be at his most rested Sunday in San Antonio in a fifth game that’s already certain to be played. He will not be as fresh in Games 3-4, and could be truly EXHAUSTED by the time games 6-7 come around. I told you back in my series preview that you’d have to read-and-reach as you handicapped this matchup on the fly. You’re surely getting a sense of that already.
I’m not going to provide any specifics regarding my personal selections here in the coursework. I have to protect that information for my paying customers. But, I can tell you that I will be paying very close attention to this LeBron angle going forward. I’ll also be looking at:
*Natural zig-zag tendencies
*Potential fatigue issues for Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili on the Spurs
*Potential course-changing role players who lift their games
*Strategic adjustments from the head coaches
It’s a lot of fun to try and get into the heads of both Gregg Popovich and Erik Spoelstra. Neither is the type to sit idly by while the series gets away from him. Even if you’re a do-it-yourselfer who’s just getting started in the field of Las Vegas sports betting, you should spend some time trying to anticipate what these mean do the rest of the way. You’ll learn a lot about handicapping just by osmosis.
If you’re trying to make some money in these final games of the NBA season, you can always purchase my BEST BETS right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions can be answered by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office. Call 1-888-777-4155 with queries.
I expect to be back later this week with a baseball article. Though, it’s possible important developments will occur in Tuesday’s Game Three and Thursday’s Game Four that will require additional basketball discussion. I would also like to let you know that I’ll begin some football coursework in the very new future. Summers are ideal for football bettors because there’s a long window for preparation in either college or pro action (or both) that lets you have everything positioned properly for the start of the season in the Fall. If you haven’t already, I strongly encourage you RIGHT NOW to go out and purchase some newsstand preview publications so you can begin some preliminary work. By this weekend you should know every head coaching change!
Thanks again for all of your hard work. The Dean of Sports Handicapping is honored by your consistent and enthusiastic attendance.