Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, May 12, 2014 at 2:00 PM
We haven’t had a chance to talk about baseball for awhile on these pages. Let’s take care of that today with a look at how a particularly strength or weakness for a team can show up in both team side and Over/Under results. It’s very important that those of you who are serious students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping remember to take advantage of ALL the opportunities available to you.
For example…if you recognize that a team has excellent pitching…you don’t just want to back that team…but you want to look at UNDERS as well. In fact, you may earn a bigger profit from the totals than the team sides given the nature of the modern market. It’s very hard for a team to be up or down 10 units of profit as we approach the first 25% mark of the new season. It’s much more common for teams to be showing 10 units of differential on their totals results. So, if you recognize quality pitching that isn’t being noticed by oddsmakers…you really MUST look at totals!
To help illustrate this point for you, I’ve grabbed the most telling tandem combinations through the games of this past Sunday (May 12). Let’s go combination by combination, starting with a team that’s been getting much better pitching than expected after getting hit with highly publicized injuries.
GOOD PITCHING=PROFITABLE TEAM AND UNDERS
Atlanta +4.5 units and 12-22-2 to the Under
The Atlanta Braves are leading the NL East, and have earned a nice 4.5 units for their backers. But, Unders are actually TEN games better than the.500 mark, which is still about EIGHT games better after you account for the 10% vigorish on lost Las Vegas bets. Handicappers recognizing that Atlanta’s pitchers were going to be better than expected really should have been adding Unders into their mix.
GOOD HITTING=PROFITABLE TEAM AND OVERS
Colorado +6 units and 24-13-3 to the Over
Minnesota +4 units and 22-13-1 to the Over
Chicago Whites Sox +3 units and 22-16-1 to the Over
Miami +2 units and 22-13-3 to the Over
That’s four teams that would have shown double digits in profit with “combination platters” including both sides and totals. Miami’s been a pleasant surprise…but the profits for betting on their improved offense were even more pleasant if you were including Overs. Colorado and Minnesota have been absolute home runs this year for backers who study offense (though Minnesota cooled off some last week). Colorado’s been one of the biggest stories this year in the markets. You wouldn’t know it though since they’re not based in Boston, New York, or Los Angeles.
BAD PITCHING=MONEY LOSING TEAM AND OVERS
Tampa Bay minus 12 units and 22-14-2 to the Over
Arizona minus 10 units and 23-14-3 to the Over
Toronto minus 3 units and 23-14-1 to the Over
Washington minus 2 units and 20-14-3 to the Over
Now we can turn it around and look at teams you should be fading. Arizona’s starting pitching was a disaster out of the gate. Fading them made investors big money…but including Overs against that horrible rotation would have almost doubled the profit. The disappointing start for Toronto’s pitching really only paid off for bettors who were betting Overs in their games
BAD HITTING=MONEY LOSING TEAM AND UNDERS
Boston -3.5 units and 13-22-2 to the Under
Cincinnati -3.5 units and 15-19-2 to the Under
San Diego -3 units and 12-24-3 to the Under
You may have watched Cincinnati play Boston last week in some TV games. Both of those offenses have been disappointing. Boston’s slow start with the bats was best exploited with Unders rather than fades (though you made a few units fading them too). I feel sorry for fans who have to attend San Diego Padres games in person. So little happens!
The points made today regarding Over/Unders can be applied to all sports. This is very important in the NFL…when there are only 16 regular season games to profit from your knowledge…and even more so in the colleges where there are only 12 regular season games. The longer meandering schedule of the NBA allows you to really run up the profits over time if you can find edges to exploit. Were you aware that the horrible defense of the Detroit Pistons had them going 35-46-1 against the spread, but 56-26 to the Over!! That’s 102-61-1 as a ceiling for handicappers who recognized that this version of the Pistons didn’t bother with guarding people.
We’ll probably go back to basketball on my report that goes up later this week. You can always purchase my BEST BETS in both baseball AND basketball right here at this very website with your major credit card. If you have any questions about packages that take you through the rest of the NBA Playoffs or to baseball’s All-Star Break, talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about baseball and Triple Crown racing when you call. The PREAKNESS goes this Saturday.
See you again before the weekend. Keep up the hard work. The DEAN OF SPORTS HANDICAPPING greatly appreciates your attention, discipline, and passion for beating the books in Las Vegas.