Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, April 4, 2014 at 2:00 PM
It’s been a long profitable college basketball season. Now we come to the grand finale weekend…with the Final Four matchups Saturday in Arlington (Florida vs. Connecticut, and Wisconsin vs. Kentucky), followed by the championship game Monday Night featuring those two winners.
I can’t go into specifics about what my side or total selections might be. Historically, I’ve had some VERY big releases through Final Four weekend. You can safely assume that’s going to happen again. And, I can’t take the risk of poisoning the pointspreads for all of my paying customers.
But, the Dean of Sports Handicapping will be happy to talk about some general principals you should be applying this weekend. This is my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping. I know you expect at least a small lecture of tips and strategies right before the big games!
The first thing to remember is that the environment of the Final Four is unlike anything many of these kids have experienced before. Even if they’ve played prior games in domes…or won important battles in their league tournaments and previously in this Dance, having A FULL WEEK to get ready for what is basically the Super Bowl of college basketball in terms of media hype is a very unique challenge. Experienced coaches can only do so much to get their kids ready.
Generally, you should favor:
*Experience over inexperience
*Inside play over outside play
*Aggressive defenses over passive defenses
*Past experience in domes over no experience in domes
Again, you’ll have to connect the dots to this weekend’s teams because I’m not going to spell it out for you in a way that could tip too much to the oddsmakers. KELSO STURGEON has been picking NCAA Tournament winners since before Bill Walton and Lew Alcindor (later Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) were winning championships for UCLA. Heck, I’m the UCLA of basketball handicappers in terms of historic success! I’ll tell you what you need to look for. You’ll have to make your own shots.
Typically, my first point of emphasis is always on PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS. This element is still important…because secondary to the issues I outlined above because all four surviving teams have established that they know how to win big games. It’s almost as if PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS will cancel out because of the talent levels. You need to go beyond that this weekend.
And, THE MOTIVATION FACTOR? In the Final Four, everyone’s at peak motivation. Nobody’s going to play flat or disinterested this weekend. There are some other factors to consider though:
*The FATIGUE FACTOR: look at the minutes-played data from previous games to determine which teams are most and least likely to fade in the final five minutes of a war…or in the final 10 minutes next Monday when hyperactive kids are playing their second peak-intensity game in three nights.
*The COACHING FACTOR: review the straight up and ATS records of the remaining head coaches to see who’s more likely to make good or bad decisions that will determine who wins and covers. When any mistake can be critical, you don’t want to invest money in mistake-prone head coaches.
*The POISE FACTOR: It’s not as simple as taking seniors over freshman. Sometimes seniors who aren’t used to this size of a spotlight get complacent at the worst possible time. Sometimes future NBA stars who are only currently freshman and sophomores have a sense for the big stage because they’ve been stars their whole lives. Review close games played over the past couple of months for all four remaining teams to make an evaluation for who’s likely to be most poised when games are won or lost Saturday and Monday.
I sincerely wish all of you the best of luck picking games this weekend. If you’d like to know who I’m releasing, you can purchase my BEST BETS right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions can be answered by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
We’ll be transitioning to a schedule heavy in the NBA and Major League baseball beginning next week. The NBA playoffs are just around the corner. And, April baseball is always popular because fans have been pining for the return of that sport all winter long. For those of you who are only college basketball fans, this will be my last write-up on the sport until next season. Thanks for your hard work and attendance the past few months here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping. I’m sure you’ll be back for football and then college hoops down the road. For everyone else, see you early next week!