Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, March 25, 2014 at 3:00 PM
I spent some extra time reviewing the boxscores from this past weekend before putting together my notes for handicapping this week’s Sweet 16 games in the NCAA Tournament. I can’t talk specifics of course, because I need to protect my selections for my paying clients. But, I wanted to make sure I was giving students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping information that would apply directly to the games they’ll be analyzing Thursday and Friday…and then obviously through the weekend in the Elite Eight with the teams who survive.
We always start with PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS, plus THE MOTIVATION FACTOR. I’m going to move right on past those. If you haven’t already mastered what’s at stake there, it’s too late for me to help you for this weekend!
Here are the three biggest keys this week in my view:
WHO’S READY FOR THEIR MOMENT?
We’re at a point now where pretenders become deer in the headlights, while champions because the oncoming cars that are about to run them over. There are a handful of teams who looked great last weekend but are about to crash and burn under the high pressure stakes of Sweet 16 basketball. These collapses won’t be anticipated by recent stats, recent power ratings, or even by what those computer gurus are telling you. Those are all BLIND to what’s about to happen because it takes basketball sense to understand the dynamics in play.
Again, I won’t be specific. But, study the experience-level of the remaining teams…their expectations entering the Big Dance…and how much time they spent celebrating last weekend. Just reaching the Sweet 16 represents “climbing a mountain” for some teams. For others, their journey has just begun. Know the difference!
WHO CAN PROTECT THE BALL?!
This was huge last week, and is only going to get bigger because so many of the remaining defenses excel at forcing turnovers. Some do that in the backcourt with presses and traps. Others do that in the paint with tricky zones or defenders who know how to anticipate passing lanes. But, this season in particular, success is going to come down to which offenses can avoid turnovers while executing their offenses. Be sure you study what happened last weekend in this skill set. And, review full season numbers for each team.
Just with these first two…you should be able to anticipate at least 1-2 pointspread blowouts for the Sweet 16 round. A deer in the headlights is going to get ROUTED because they kept turning the ball over in a way that created very easy points for their opponent. And, hint, there just might be an upset brewing because a favorite that’s used to getting those cheap points won’t get getting them against a dog with good guards.
WHO HAS THE DEPTH TO HANDLE QUESTIONABLE OFFICIATING?
I’ve tried not to complain too much about this. But, it’s become a big story in a few games. If you don’t have a solid bench, you’re very much at the mercy of whistle-happy officials who want to get their mugs on television. Go back and study the minute allotments from this past weekend, and the conference tournaments the prior weekend for remaining teams. You need to know who goes only 6-deep, and who goes 8-9 deep. You won’t know who the officials are before tip-off. But, at least you’ll be wary of teams who may not be able to play up to your planned investment level because they lack depth. I want to emphasize that the make-up of THIS YEAR’S tournament teams is particularly relevant for this category…possibly more so than in other recent seasons.
I’ve said enough. I firmly believe as The Dean of Sports Handicappers that this is going to be a fantastic week for serious students of sports betting to attack the markets. Be sure you do the work required to get the job done (as many of you have been doing all season). If you’d like some help finding the very BEST BETS on the board, you can purchase my top plays right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions? Talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155 for answers.
This will be it for this week’s College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping because the information I’ve provided will apply to the Saturday and Sunday games as well. I may come back with a bonus “read and react” report. But, finding time to do that during this busy basketball slate and in the build up to next week’s baseball will likely prove difficult. I will definitely be back early next week to talk about the start of Major League Baseball. Then, I’ll have a late week look at handicapping the Final Four.
Thanks again to all of you who have been reading through the basketball season. I hope you keep reading for baseball and the upcoming NBA playoffs. I haven’t said this in awhile. You really should be printing out every get-together so you can create a virtual textbook you can refer to for years to come. The classic fundamentals of winning will always work!
See you next week.