Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, March 20, 2014 at 10:10 AM
500-Unit 4-Day NCAA Tournament Run Begins Thursday With 100-Unit Blowout
By Kelso Sturgeon
The NCAA Tournament selection committee has a complicated and thankless job to seed the 68 teams that will compete in the Big Dance and then put together the four regional tournaments that will eventually produce college basketball’s national champion. All reports to the contrary, they do it reasonably well.
Complain all you want and tell the world just how badly your favorite team got screwed but the reality for bettors is that we must play the hand we were dealt.
The committee did some outrageous things, as they always do, and there was no bigger mistake than making defending champion Louisville (29-5) a #4 seed when they should have been a #1 and there is no doubt these gentleman gave undefeated Wichita State (34-0), a Final Four team last year, the business.
Louisville was American Athletic Conference co-champion with Cincinnati (both finished 15-3 in AAC play), went 16-2 in its last 18 games, with those two losses coming at Memphis, 72-66, and at home against Cincinnati, 69-66, literally blew out 10 of the last 12 teams it played and was playing during that time frame at a level higher than any team in the country.
The 4th seed was an insult by any measurement.
The committee begrudgingly gave the Shockers a #1 seed and then placed them in a bracket in which they will probably have to beat any combination of Kentucky (24-10), Louisville, Duke (26-8) and Michigan (25-8) to get back to the Final Four which will be played at the Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX, beginning April 5.
The prejudice against “mid-majors” lives on.
From the bettors’ point of view one can expect Wichita State and Louisville to come to play. Unfortunately for both, they could meet in the third game of the Midwest Regional.
As noted, that’s the head we have been dealt and that is the hand we will play.
My March Madness Package Has Been A Gold Mine
There is no question betting lines were challenging to the extreme when the college conference tournaments began and then overnight became marshmallow soft as bookmakers failed to factor into their numbers the hidden dynamics that produce big game winners.
I immediately read the situation and, as was written in my last newsletter it was a new game and the edges had shifted overnight to our side of the counter and I closed out on a 6-game winning run with one 200-unit play, two 100-unit releases and three 50-unit releases all on the same day.
6-0 Last 6 Big-Game Plays
3/16…100 Units…Michigan (-3) 69, Michigan 55 (Win)
3/15…200 Units…Louisville (-7) 71, Connecticut 61 (Win)
3/14…50 Units…Wisconsin (-4.5) 83, Minnesota 57 (Win)
3/14…50 Units…Providence (-2.5) 80, Seton Hall 74 (Win)
3/14…50 Units…Georgia (-1) 75, Mississippi 73 (Win)
3/13…100 Units…New Mexico 93, Fresno State 77 (Win)
Bookmakers in Las Vegas sense they missed the boat during the college conference tournaments and have by the limits most have put on NCAA games quietly indicate they are very nervous that bettors still have the edges to win in the world of points and half points.
For instance, I ventured into the Green Valley Ranch sports book this morning and saw the low limits that signal the apprehension of those making betting lines. For instance Green Valley Ranch in The Las Vegas suburb of Henderson, and all the other shops controlled by Station Casinos, had set these limits:
Sides…Limit of $3,000 per game.
Totals…Limit of $500 per game.
1st and 2nd half limits: $1,000 on side, $500 on total.
Key Game Plays (Selected by bookmaker) $6,000 on game, $1,000 on total.
Circle Game: $500.
Added or extra game: $500.
Parlay Limits: 2-4 teams, $3,000.
Parlay With Any Total & Money Line: $500.
The sharps are out—those in Las Vegas and hundreds from around the country—and no one is going to give them an opportunity to make a single major score. There will be exceptions with some sports books letting bettors go for broke, but they will be few and far between in Nevada but more liberal in the off-shore community, where 90% of the world’s best bookmakers conduct business.
100-Unit Blowout Launches NCAA Tourney Thursday
I kicked off the NCAA Tournament round of 64 last season with a winning 50-unit play on Syracuse (-13) with its 47-point, 81-34, win over Montana and am upping the ante today as the Big Dance officially gets underway. Today it’s my 100-unit NCAA Tournament Round Of 64 Blowout and the team I am releasing should dominate from start to finish and absolute crush the number. You can win this 100-unit play, plus 2-3 additional unit rated games, for just $50, charged to your major credit card. Available on this website and toll free at 1-800-755-2255.
200-Unit NCAA Game Of Year Wins Saturday
I have been absolutely destroying the bookmakers of the world with my big-game plays (6-0 the past six days and the winning continues Saturday with my 200-unit NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. The team I am releasing has a 90% chance to win and should absolutely crush the number in this one. Get all the money with this 200-unit play for just $50, charged to your major credit card. Available on the Internet and toll free at 1-800-755-2255.
Perfect 2-0 In March Madness 200-Unit Plays
3/15…200 Units…Louisville (-7) 71, Connecticut 61
3/8…Nevada (-1.5) 76, UNLV 72
Better yet, get on board for my complete March Madness Package for just $175 - The March Madness Package Includes
- NBA Basketball Right ThroughThe Rest of the Regular Season
- Complete Coverage Of The NCAA Tournament
- Complete Coverage Of The NIT, CTI and CBI Tournaments
- At Least One More 200-Unit College Game
- At Least 7 More 100-Unit Games
Things Handicappers Need To Understand
Here are a few conclusions drawn over four decades of handicapping college basketball, first as a line-maker and then as a handicapper. Hopefully they will help you through the handicapping process in all the post-season tournaments.
- Teams that are going to win and advance in the NCAA must have four things working for them—(1) talent that has proven it can win, especially on the road, (2) experience playing in the pressure-packed games where if you lose you’re out, (3) a deep bench to cope with the exhaustion of playing a game every 48 hours, or less, and (4) a coach that has proven he can win big games.
- When an underdog pulls off a major upset in the tournament it is a strong candidate to lose its next game.
- The harder a team has to play to win, stay alive and advance, the more vulnerable it is to lose or fail to cover in its next game. That team’s tank will be low on energy after a tough win and has no time to rest enough to be 100% in its next out.
- When you find a game your figures say is a dead-even affair, bet on the team that has a winning road and neutral floor record.
- We know teams finds themselves in a game in which they are candidates to bounce up or down—up off a terrible performance and down off a great performance—but we sometimes ignore the fact players are also part of the bounce game. A player who averages 20 points a game and scores but 6 is a candidate to score 30 in his next game