Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 7:00 AM
If you’ve been watching college basketball in recent days, you’ve basically seen a parade of pretenders being exposed. This may be the most wide-open I’ve seen the national championship picture in recent seasons. It seems like everyone has at least one exploitable weakness. Many teams are way overrated by the media polls and the computer ratings in my view.
Why is this happening?
*The new enforcement of defensive rules has been a bit of an equalizer. Teams who used to mug opponents on defense to forge great records have taken a few steps backward this year because they can’t do that any more. Many mid-level teams with offensive talent have taken a step forward because it’s easier to score.
*Many of the Preseason “superstars” have turned out to be mortal. This has led to some teams being overrated, while the star players on other teams were personally offended about the freshman hype that they came out and had great seasons. You regulars here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping know that I emphasize PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS in my handicapping. There are truly a lot of those this season.
*I’ve also noticed this season that “team basketball” is trumping “hero ball” all over the landscape. The media tends to focus on hero ball, while missing out on offenses that work for a good shot from a variety of weapons. As a result, many “media” teams have been overrated, while many “smart” teams have been underrated.
*And, I’ve been startled how often my personal Power Ratings have differed from what you see in the prominent computers. I don’t think the computers have ever been this bad! A few conferences have been greatly overrated by the computers…which means that the top one or two teams in those leagues are nowhere near as good as they’ve been grading out in analytics. My decades of experience in this field has really paid off this season because I see what the computers are missing.
I hope you’re watching a lot of games on TV. If so, you’ve been seeing a lot of pretenders being exposed. I’m not going to make an itemized list because I want to protect my list of go-against teams moving forward. We’ll be cleaning up against many of these pretenders in conference tournaments and the Big Dance. I will tell you hard-working students to focus on these factors when you watch games this week.
*Teams who force shots in traffic rather than passing to the open man are likely to be PRETENDERS
*Teams who allow a lot of opponent offensive rebounds are likely to be PRETENDERS
*Teams who don’t rotate quickly on defense are likely to be PRETENDERS
*Teams who play two games in a row without much emotion are likely to be PRETENDERS
*Teams who are tuning out their head coach during timeouts are likely to be PRETENDERS
*Teams who are failing to cover multiple recent games vs. non-Dance teams are likely to be PRETENDERS
Again, these pretenders are literally all over the card, and all over the TV dial. Many of them are going to be favorites in their own tournaments and in early round Dance action when they shouldn’t be. You needed to be making your go-against lists NOW so you can attack the opening lines once the tournament numbers go up.
If you’d like some help finding the best games on the board every night, you can always purchase my top releases right here at this very website with your major credit card. Additional assistance is available in the home office of Vegas-Sports-Masters. You can call and talk to one of my representatives at 1-888-777-4155.
For the rest of you…all the hard work you’ve been performing the past few months is really going to pay off in the tournaments. I’m extremely confident of that based on the reports I’ve already been hearing about recent success. The great thing about the month of March is that smart bettors have great options EVERY DAY for weeks at a time! We’re also about to see more dumb public money hit the board. That will make daily lines even softer. Informed bettors like YOU are about to make a killing.
Our next class get together will be later this week. I look forward to seeing you then.