Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, February 25, 2014 at 11:00 AM
The college basketball campaign has flown by so quickly…it may be hard for some of you to believe that the regular season actually ends for some teams THIS weekend! A few of the mid-majors wrap up league action Saturday or Sunday, before beginning their postseason tournaments a few days later. For everyone else, only two weekends remain.
Historically, this time of the year creates many HUGE play possibilities for my personal approach. I wanted to devote today’s discussion in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping to the keys to finding those 150-unit, 200-unit, 250-unit, and possibly even 300-unit opportunities. Here’s what you should be looking for…
THE BOUNCE FACTOR…TIMES TWO!
I’ve talked about “the bounce factor” a lot in this sport over the years. If you’re new to the coursework and the website, “the bounce factor” simply involves the tendency for teams to bounce from one extreme to another in the world of sports. A great effort is followed by a flat spot. A bad effort is followed by a peak performance. Teams, particularly those composed entirely of college kids, find it very difficult to play consistent ball late in the regular season.
*You want to bet against teams who just had a great result in a big game
*You want to bet on quality teams who just played way below par
*You want to LOAD UP if anyone from the second category is facing anyone from the first category!
You can grind out a nice profit very quickly just with those first two categories. You won’t win every single bet…but you’ll win a lot more than you lose. Those true golden games that pop up from time to time from the third category deserve VERY serious attention. This is where you take the rubber bands off your bankroll. This is where you increase your normal betting size from 10-25-50 units up to 150 units or more.
Sure, oddsmakers know about “the bounce factor.” But, it’s not something that they can properly price. When the stars align like this, it can be worth as many as 10-20 points on the scoreboard. Oddsmakers adjust a few points only. If a 10-point favorite wins by 20 or 30 on the scoreboard, it doesn’t matter that the line would have been only -7 without the double bounce. KELSO STURGEON made his name in this industry by winning games in that fashion. You saw it all through football (up to and including my 300-unit Super Bowl victory on false underdog Seattle). You’re very likely to see it again over these next two weeks of college hoops action.
College basketball, as it’s played right now, is a lot like rock-paper-scissors. Certain styles match up very well against other styles. If you can find bounce or double-bounce games where that style alignment is also in your favor…you’ve found a true dream scenario.
Examples to look for
*A fired up team with a great pressing defense facing a flat opponent that handles the ball poorly
*A fired up team with great rebounders facing a flat opponent that’s typically soft on the boards
*A fired up team that loves a fast tempo playing at home against a flat opponent that typically walks the ball up
*A fired up team that attacks the basket with aggression either on the break or out of the halfcourt facing a flat opponent that has poor numbers this year on two-point defense inside the arc
You get THOSE kinds of games in the double bounce, and Vegas oddsmakers have no chance to get anywhere near the final scoreboard margin. The fired up teams with matchup advantages will have the full game spread covered in the first 10 minutes…might have it doubled by halftime…and will coast to an easy cover even if the whole second half is garbage time.
You regular students have watched enough college basketball this year to know the strengths and weaknesses of the major board teams. If you haven’t, study as many stats as you can online to get a proper read. The stats tell an accurate story right now because we’re so deep into the season. I promise you that your hard work will pay off on multiple occasions through the rest of the regular season…and then again in the tournaments when the bounce factor always looms very large (with some double bounce games when good teams barely survive “flat” games before bouncing back strong after their wake-up call).
If you feel like you need some help finding the best options on a daily basis, you can purchase my nightly basketball plays (college and pro) right here at this very website with your major credit card. Those of you who prefer doing business with a live person can talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters home office at 1-888-777-4155.
Back with you soon to talk more about late season basketball handicapping. We’ll be focused exclusively on basketball for the next several weeks. Baseball is still more than a month away. The Dean of Sports Handicapping is very much looking forward to spending another MARCH MADNESS with you on these pages. Let’s go make some money!