Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, June 25, 2012 at 4:58 PM
Power against weakness, power against weakness, power against weakness-repeat it over and again and physically make it an always-visible billboard in whatever space or area in which you handicap baseball, football or basketball. Power against weakness is the alpha point of analysis.
I have written books, articles and papers about what it takes to win in the world of sports betting and in the process have touched every single required element, and then some. Still, with all the hundreds of factors that determine the outcome of a game, there is nothing stronger or carries more weight than power against weakness.
It rules in football, in basketball and currently in baseball.
As most of you know, I have kicked off the last five college football seasons with a 100-unit game I release as my College Kickoff Game of the Year. I have gone 5-0 straight up and against the spread in these games-and every single one was selected for its power vs. weakness factor. That is a nice score-100% straight up winners and 86.0% covers.
There is a history to all of this and with the college and National Football seasons approaching it's time to offer a refresher course.
As many of you know, at the beginning of the 2008 football season, I began using the most sophisticated handicapping formula in the history of football handicapping. It came after five years of study and the analysis of more than 9,000 college and NFL games, and it isolated the one single universal factor that decided which teams won football games-the power vs. weakness element.
The formula was so strong it made me a little edgy because it said, without reservation, there are games in which one team has a 100% chance to win and somewhere between 75%-80% chance to cover the number. That was strong stuff-so powerful that even my fellow handicappers snickered when I asked for their opinions. Nothing, they said, could be that good.
Were they right, or were they wrong?
I Believed My Study And Came Out Firing
After five years and hundreds of hours of analysis I decided to go full-speed ahead and release only the games that qualified for 50-to-200 unit plays. My first test came first day of the 2008 season when the formula said Florida had a 100% chance to beat Hawaii and a 96% chance to cover the 35 ½.
When it was over, Florida had won 56-10 without taking a deep breath. Far more amazing was the fact during the season the formula predicted 67 games qualified as blowouts. When the dust cleared, those 67 games had gone an astounding 50-14-3 against the spread, hitting 78% winners on the highest level of betting plane. Those who received the 67 games were all members of my Personal Best Club for highrollers and those betting $100-per-unit on each contest closed the season with a profit of $218,475.
When word of that reached the social media it went viral and I was immediately lambasted by thousands of sore losers-most probably destroyed by their own hands-and man did they scream. "Liar", was the nicest thing they said.
Then my clients went to bat and told critics they had been part of the most amazing football season in history-that it happened, so get used to it.
Every single game predicted to be a blowout came from one factor-power against weakness, something that was revealed by the new handicapping formula.
Power vs. weakness has been the foundation of all my sports handicapping since them and it has worked in basketball and has taken its most powerful position in baseball.
Power Vs. Weakness Factor In Baseball
There are examples of power vs. weakness games almost every day in baseball, including at least five of the 13 being played today (Monday). An outstanding example of this is the Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies game. Washington has all the power in this one, with Colorado owning all the weaknesses.
Here is what Washington, the power team, brings to the table against the weak Rockies
- Washington (41-29) is in first place in the National League East while Colorado (27-44) is two games out of last place in the NL West. The Nationals are 21-15 on the road while the Rockies are 15-21 at home.
- Colorado is 5-15 in its last 20 games and has lost six straight at home and has not won there since June 3.
- Stephen Strasburg (9-1, with an ERA of 2.46) starts for Washington and is at the top of his game. He goes for his seventh straight win and in his last six starts he has struck out 54 batters while issuing just 10 walks. He leads the majors with average strikeouts per nine innings (11.8)
- Jeff Francis (0-1, with an ERA of 8.56) makes his third start for Colorado since being signed as a free agent. The Rockies have the worst team ERA in baseball (5.33) and no starter has won a game since June 4.
One could go on forever, but the picture is quite clear. Washington is the power team, Colorado the weak team and for me laying that -172 with the Nationals was quite easy to do.
Just keep in mind every single day there are games that fit this very same profile, some even more lopsided that this one appears. Stick with the power vs. weakness element in baseball and it is a guarantee you will make money.
I'm a man of the people-the son of a Kansas sharecropper-and nothing brings me more joy that picking winners for my clients-something I have done for more than 40 years. Everyone deserves to make money-and that includes you and always at an affordable price.
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