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Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 11:43 AM


Volume 17, Issue 24 Games of Jan. 29-Feb. 3


SPECIAL SUPER BOWL XLVIII ISSUE

I Am Going For My 2nd Straight 400-Unit Super Bowl Win This Sunday…
300 Units On Winner...50 Units On Total…50-Unit Side/Total Parlay

800-Unit 5-Day Super Bowl Package Marches On!

Broncos Remain 2.5-Point Favorite In Las Vegas
But Heavy Highroller Action Offshore Left Line There -2.0


Favorites Stand 26-19-2 In Super Bowl History,
But Dogs Have Won Last 2 and 4 of Last 6
Straight Up and Stand 5-1 ATS In Those Games

By Kelso Sturgeon

I could write a book about personal Super Bowl experiences, but two stand out in my mind—last year’s historic 400-unit win with the underdog Baltimore Ravens, and attending a party at the Florida home of New York Jets’ owner Sonny Werblin when he bet $25,000 on his team at 8-1 odds to win the Super Bowl—a bold move on an 18-point underdog, but a wager made on quarterback Joe Namath’s promise the Jets would beat the Baltimore Colts, which they did in Super Bowl III.

Honorable mention goes to a 95-year-old friend who did a successful back flip in my den after the love of his life, the old Baltimore Colts, upset the Dallas Cowboys, 16-13, in Super Bowl V.

It also is worth mentioning my real introduction to the amount of money wagered illegally on the game. I was sitting with a group of bookmakers and highrollers at a casino party in Las Vegas getting ready to watch Super Bowl XXIX, a game between the San Francisco 49ers and the San Diego Chargers.

One of the bookmakers at the party kept complaining about how a San Diego win would break him, destroy him, cause him to lose his home, make his wife leave him, his children hate him and on and on and on, a very annoying never-ending blather. Finally a fellow bookmaker tired of the whining and told me he was going to put the man out of his misery.

“How much you got on the game?”, my friend ask the annoying complainer.

“Million and a half.”

“How much you want to get rid of?”

“$600,000”.

“I’ll take it all”.

And that was that. My friend took all $600,000 and in the end won the bet as San Francisco, the biggest Super Bowl favorite in history at -18.5, crushed the Chargers, 49-26.

A $600,000 ticket in order to enjoy the game and I realized just how much money is wagered in the sub-culture.

“If you afraid to lose, don’t take the bet”, my friend said. “Same thing for bettors. . . . .if you can’t deal with losing, don’t bet”. He then noted nothing in this business is guaranteed and, regardless of which side of the counter you’re on, you are always at risk.

And, now it is on to Super Bowl XLVIII which will be played this Sunday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, with kick-off set for 6:30 (EST). The game will be televised FOX.

My Super Bowl Record 23-3 Since 2001

It is always at this time of the year I give credit to the late Hank Stram for my success in winning the Super Bowl. Stram was for years a mentor who was a master analyst of the NFL and the Super Bowl. In the 18 before he passed away, he was right by a 17-1 margin and was gracious and kind enough to share with me his 42-point formula for winning. I have used it ever since, and my record of success certainly speaks for itself.

Using Stram’s Formula (CAPS mine) I have become the most successful professional handicapper of this game ever. Since 2001, I have gone:

  • 11-2 with winning sides.
  • 12-1 with winning totals.

That is an amazing 88% winners in the biggest NFL game of the season.

Last season I was so confident on the success I had had with Stram’s Formula that for the first time ever released the Super Bowl at the 400-unit level, with these winning results:

  • 300 units on the underdog Baltimore Ravens (+5) who beat the San Francisco 49ers, 34-31 straight up.
  • 50 units on “over” 47 and that number ell 65
  • 50 units on a side/total parlay of the Ravens and the “over”

It was my biggest Super Bowl score ever in more than four decades of handicapping the game.

The 400-unit encore is coming Sunday... or whenever the game is played.

My Certified 23-3 Record
AND HERE'S MY RECORD TO PROVE THAT

Year

My Selection

Result

Score

2013

Baltimore +4 over San Francisco

WON!

34-31


Totals Go Over 48

WON!

65 Pts

2012

Giants (+3) over New England

WON!

21-17


Totals Go Under 54

WON!

38 Pts

2011:

Green Bay -2.5 over Pittsburgh

WON!

31-25


Totals Go Under 45

lost

56 Pts

2010:

New Orleans +5 over Indianapolis

WON!

31-17


Totals Go Under 57

WON!

49 Pts

2009:

Arizona +7 over Pittsburgh

WON!

23-27


Totals Go Over 46

WON!

50 Pts.

2008:

NY Giants +12 over New England

WON!

17-14


Totals Go Under 55

WON!

31 Pts.

2007:

Chicago +7 over Indianapolis

lost

17-29


Totals Go Under 47.5

WON!

46 Pts.

2006:

Seattle +4 over Pittsburgh

lost

10-21


Totals Go Under 47

WON!

31 Pts

2005:

Philadelphia +7 over New England

WON!

21-24


Totals Under 47

WON!

45 Pts

2004:

Carolina +7 over New England

WON!

29-32


Totals Over 37

WON!

61 Pts.

2003:

Tampa Bay +3? over Oakland

WON!

48-21


Totals Over 44

WON!

69 Pts.

2002:

New England +14 over St. Louis

WON!

20-17


Totals Under 53

WON!

37 Pts.

2001:

Baltimore -3 over New York Giants

WON!

34-7


Totals Over 33

WON!

41 Pts.

200-Unit College Basketball Play Wednesday Kicks Off 1,000-Unit, 6-Day Super Bowl

Wednesday night I am kicking off my special six-day Super Bowl Package with another 200-unit college basketball winner. This 200-unit play follows my first 200-unit winner of the season—Washington (-3.5) with its 87-81 win over Oregon State. While Washington got off to a slow start and had to come from behind to win, my Wednesday night release so outclasses its opponent, it should roar from the opening tipoffs.

And we will be on the way to my second straight 400-unit Super Bowl win on Sunday with the following plays:

  • 300 units on the side.
  • 50 units on the total.
  • 50 units on side/total parlay at odds of 13-5

The Super Bowl program offers big-game plays in college and NBA basketball every single day through next Monday night when it concludes with a 75-unit 2-team college parlay.

As always the price is right--$150 for six days of more than 1,000 units of winning big-game action, plus daily Best Bets Basketball Investment Club plays for two weeks beginning with the day you sign up.

Sign Up Now, Start Winning Tonight!

The Complete 5-Day Package

Thurs. Jan. 30
100-Unit College Upset Game of The Year

Won last year with Illinois-Chicago (+1.5) Wisc-Green Bay 60-57
Won in 2012 with Louisville (+3) over Syracuse 51-52

Fri. Jan 31
100-Unit NBA Game Of The Year

Won last year with Celtics (-8.5) over Magic 97-84
Won in 2012 with Lakers (-12.5) over Bobcats 106-73

Sat. Feb. 1
200-Unit College Basketball Blowout Of The Year - 4-0-1 All Time

Feb 2, 2013: New Mexico (-13) Nevada Push 200 Units 75-62
Feb 4, 2012: California (-18.5) Arizona State WON 200 Units 68-47
Feb 12, 2011: Nebraska (-4.5) Oklahoma State WON 200 Units 65-54
Feb 17, 2010: West Virginia (-7.5) Providence WON 200 Units 86-74
Jan 24, 2009: Wyoming (-7.5) Colorado State WON 200 Units 83-74

Finally, On Sun. Feb. 2
400 Unit Wager On Super Bowl Winner

300 Units On Side
50 Units Wager On Total
50 Unit Side/Total Parlay Getting Odds Of 13-5
Plus 5 Proposition Bets (3-2 Last Year)

Plus 50-Unit Basketball Play Of Day To Kick Off Super Bowl Sunday
Mon. Feb. 3
The Bonus Closer-75 Unit Big Monday TV Parlay to Close Out
25 units on Xavier-Villanova & 25 units on Notre Dame-Syracuse
25 unit parlay of winners - Both games on national TV!

Amex or Discover for your BASKETBALL BEST BETS for you the day you sign



Handicapping Super Bowl XLVIII

Seattle Seahawks (15-3) vs. Denver Broncos (15-3)
Played At MetLife Stadium In East Rutherford, New Jersey

Current Odds
Denver is -2.5 In Las Vegas Sports Books... Denver is -2.0 In Many Offshore Sports Books
The Total Is A Solid 47 Almost Everywhere
On The Money Line
Denver is -130…Seattle is +110
Line History
Seattle Opened As The Favorite At Prices Ranging From -1 to -2.5... The Total Opened At 47.5

Weather Appears To Be A Non-Issue

The weather for Sunday has been front and center all week but it now appears the game will go as scheduled and not have to be changed to an alternate date or to a different starting time. The East Coast has been hard-hit all week by bitter cold, high winds and NFL officials are concerned enough they announced contingency plans, including moving the game to Monday or Tuesday, or changing the kickoff time should that become necessary.

As of this moment, the weather forecast for Sunday is quite iffy, but not disastrous. There is a 40% chance of ice pellets falling at game time, with that later changing to snow, with accumulation set at an inch. The temperature is supposed to be in the high 20s, with wind out of the south at 8 miles per hour.

These are hardly idea conditions but are “mild” enough for the game to be played on schedule.

This Super Bowl Rides On Two Questions

This year’s Super Bowl is a classic matchup between the record breaking offense of the Denver Broncos and the lockdown defense of the Seattle Seahawks which may well be one of the best defenses to compete in this game since the Pittsburgh Steelers’ and their famous “Iron Curtain” unit. This leaves handicappers with two obvious questions, neither of which has an easy answer.

  1. Can Seattle slow down a Denver offense that, led by record-breaking quarterback Peyton Manning (5,477 yards, 55 touchdown, just 11 interceptions and with a passing efficiency rating of 115.1) averaged an NFL best in total offense (457 yards per game) and scoring (37.1 points per game)?

  2. Can Denver and its high-octane record-setting offense get the best of a Seattle Seahawks defense that was ranked #1 in the NFL in yards allowed (273.6 per game), #1 in points allowed (14.4 per game) and #1 against the pass (172 yards per game)?

It is not a stretch when one says this is a classic offense vs. defense game.

The key to winning this game is to figure out which team has an answer to those questions and I do have the answers.

All Early Bets Are “Action”

When discussion of the possibility terrible weather might impact Sunday’s Super Bowl in a major way and force it to be played on either Monday or Tuesday, bookmakers of the world declared regardless of when the game was played, all future bets were still in play.

This is a change from the universal standard rule that says if a game is played on any day other than its original scheduled date, all bets are off.

So, if you got down early, you’re on.

Super Bowl Facts And Figures

  • Betting favorites stand 26-19-2 (72%) in the first 47 Super Bowls.
  • Betting underdogs have won four of the last six Super Bowls and stand 5-1 ATS in those six games.
  • There have been six previous Super Bowls where #1-ranked offensive teams have met #1-ranked defensive teams and the defensive team is 4-1 SU in the last five games, standing 3-0 ATS as the favorite and 1-1 as the underdog.
  • While not applicable in the Denver-Seattle matchup it is of interest the last two times there were double-digit favorites in the Super Bowl, the underdogs won SU both times—six years ago when the New York Giants (+12) knocked off New England, 17-14, and in XXXVI when the Patriots (+14) beat the St. Louis Rams, 20-17.
  • Totals are evenly matched, with the over prevailing by a 24-22 margin. There was no official totaled posted on the first Super Bowl.
  • Denver is 11-6-1 ATS this season and has seen its games go “over” by a 11-7-0 margin
  • Seattle is 12-6-0 ATS this season and has seen its games go “under” by a 12-6-0 margin.
  • Las Vegas books are offering more than 300 proposition plays on this year’s game.
  • The betting lines on the 47 previous Super Bowls have averaged 7.5 points, while in that same time frame the numbers on regular season contests averaged 5.5 points.

Denver’s Complete Record

Date

Week

vs

Score

1/19/14

Conf. Title Game

New England

W 26-16

1/12/14

Div. Playoffs

San Diego

W 24-17

12/29/13

Week 17

@ Oakland

W 34-14

12/22/13

Week 16

@ Houston

W 37-13

12/12/13

Week 15

San Diego

L 20-27

12/8/13

Week 14

Tennessee

W 51-28

12/1/13

Week 13

@ Kansas City

W 35-28

11/24/13

Week 12

@ New England

L 31-34

11/17/13

Week 11

Kansas City

W 27-17

11/10/13

Week 10

@ San Diego

W 28-20

BYE

10/27/13

Week 8

Washington

W 45-21

10/20/13

Week 7

@ Indianapolis

L 33-39

10/13/13

Week 6

Jacksonville

W 35-19

10/6/13

Week 5

@ Dallas

W 51-48

9/29/13

Week 4

Philadelphia

W 52-20

9/23/13

Week 3

Oakland

W 37-21

9/15/13

Week 2

@ N.Y. Giants

W 41-23

9/5/13

Week 1

Baltimore

W 49-27

Seattle Seahawks Complete Record

Date

Week

vs

Score

1/19/14

Conf. Title Game

San Fran.

W 23-17

1/11/14

Div. Playoffs

New Orleans

W 23-15

12/29/13

Week 17

St. Louis

W 27-9

12/22/13

Week 16

Arizona

L 10-17

12/15/13

Week 15

@ N.Y. Giants

W 23-0

12/8/13

Week 14

@ San Fran.

L 17-19

12/2/13

Week 13

New Orleans

W 34-7

BYE

11/17/13

Week 11

Minnesota

W 41-20

11/10/13

Week 10

@ Atlanta

W 33-10

11/3/13

Week 9

Tampa Bay

W 27-24

10/28/13

Week 8

@ St. Louis

W 14-9

10/17/13

Week 7

@ Arizona

W 34-22

10/13/13

Week 6

Tennessee

W 20-13

10/6/13

Week 5

@ Indianapolis

L 28-34

9/29/13

Week 4

@ Houston

W 23-20

9/22/13

Week 3

Jacksonville

W 45-17

9/15/13

Week 2

San Fran.

W 29-3

9/8/13

Week 1

@ Carolina

W 12-7


ALL PICKS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT www.KelsoSportsHandicapping.com
Or at 1-800-755-2255

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