Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 1:00 PM
There’s a school of thought that says the Super Bowl is very hard to predict because “everything is known” about both teams. There are no secrets. It’s easy for oddsmakers to put “the right number” on the game, which takes away any potential betting value.
Well, destroying “schools of thought” is what my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping is all about! The Dean of Sports Handicapping wants to keep you from listening to wives’ tales so you can focus on making smart choices in the single biggest betting event in all of sports.
And, the fact that the Super Bowl IS the single biggest betting event in all of sports provides our first edge.
SUPER BOWL POINTSPREADS CAN BE WARPED BY PUBLIC MONEY
Sportsbooks have to protect themselves from disaster, while trying to position themselves to make a big profit. The fact that so much “dumb money” is hitting the board makes it easier for smart people to make money. Oddsmakers are smart. Winning handicappers are even smarter. Don’t make the mistake of assuming that “a perfect line” is up on the board for Sunday’s showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos. History has made it clear that Super Bowl lines reflect public biases rather than real football.
PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS STILL MATTER
It’s true that everyone knows who the superstars are on each team. Another thing history has shown us is that the ultimate GAMEBREAKERS often aren’t the marquee stars. Each team has two weeks to prepare to stop their opponent’s biggest threats. Smart handicappers will focus on the “secondary” threats that are likely to step up and make a difference.
I’m not going to get too specific here because I don’t want to tip my hand too early. I need to protect my eventual release for paying clients. But, I will tell you this:
*I’m focused on the receiving corps of each team in terms of finding the pointspread difference-maker on offense.
*I’m focused on “defensive PLAYMAKERS” much more intently this year than in the past.
You’ll see countless interviews with quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson. I’m telling you that the decisive player in Sundays’ Super Bowl will either be a guy who catches the ball from them….or a defensive threat who pressures them into mistakes.
MOTIVATION CANCELS OUT, BUT WINNING IS STILL “MENTAL”
You can’t really use THE MOTIVATION FACTOR in a game like the Super Bowl because both teams will be at peak motivation. But, I do believe that there will be a “mental” angle that determines who wins and loses. Again, I have to protect my eventual selection for paying customers. I’ll tell you this much:
*I’ll either be fading Peyton Manning because I don’t trust him to stay mentally tough in the fourth quarter of a truly huge game against a great defense.
*Or, I’ll be fading Russell Wilson because he’s not battle-tested enough to play at a peak level away from home in such a huge game this early in his career.
I do believe you’ll see the mental factor come into play at the quarterback position.
For you do-it-yourselfers, today’s discussion should have outlined some very clear research strategies for you:
*Study the receiving corps
*Study the high impact defensive players on each team
*Evaluate the mental readiness of each quarterback to perform in this high-pressure context
If you’re not confident of making a final determination on your own, you’ll be able to purchase my official Super Bowl slate of selections (side, total, and possibly some propositions) right here at this very website with your major credit card this weekend. Those of you who prefer doing business with a live person can talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters home office at 1-888-777-4155.
Back with you after the Super Bowl to begin a series of articles that will get you focused on college basketball for the run to MARCH MADNESS. February usually flies by. The tournaments will be here before you know it. I know all of you hardworking students will be ready to transition from the NFL to college hoops in very short order. I’m grateful that so many of you have already done so as the playoffs were winding down.
Once again, I want encourage you to spend at least one Super Bowl weekend in your lifetime here in Las Vegas. Last week I talked about the buzz in this city about the big game. It’s gotten even more intense since then. And, by Sunday’s kickoff, I expect this to be the most bet Super Bowl in history. Good luck with your choice. I can already assure you I’m very confident with mine!