Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 1:50 PM
200-Unit College Basketball Game Of Year Wins As Washington (-3.5) Beats Oregon State 87-81 And Another 200-Unit Play Wins Wednesday
By Kelso Sturgeon
It's nice to report I won my 200-unit College Basketball Game of the Year Saturday as Washington (-3.5) knocked off Oregon State, 87-81, and it is nice to report this Wednesday night I am kicking off my special six-day Super Bowl Package with another 200-unit winner. While Washington got off to a slow start and had to come from behind to win, my Wednesday night releases so outclasses its opponent, it should roar from the opening tipoffs.
And we will be on the way to my second straight 400-unit Super Bowl win-300 units on the side, 50 units on the total and 50 units on another side/total parlay at odds of 13-5. The Super Bowl program offers big-game plays every single day through next Monday night when it concludes with a 75-unit 2-team college parlay.
As always the price is right--$150 for more than 1,000 units of winning big-game action over the next six days, plus daily Best Bets Basketball Investment Club plays for two weeks, beginning with the day you sign up.
NFL Big-Wigs In Nervous Over Weather
There is nothing getting more attention than the weather watch going on the National Football League's New York offices-no surprise here. The East Coast has been hard-hit all week by bitter cold, high winds and show and the Super Bowl is just six days away and will be played across the Hudson River in MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ.
So concerned about the weather, NFL officials have announced contingency plans for any weather disaster, including moving the game to Monday or Tuesday, or changing the kickoff time (6:35 EST) on Sunday.
As of this moment, the weather forecast for Sunday is quite iffy, but that can change. There is a 40% chance or ice pellets falling at game time, with that later changing to snow. The temperature is supposed to be in the high 20s, with wind out of the south at 8 miles per hour.
However, if the weather pattern would linger, all bets are off.
While Bookmakers Say It's Business As Usual
There is a universal rule in sports betting that all early bets are off, if the game or event is not played on the day it was scheduled. Bookmakers in Las Vegas and those located offshore waived that rule this week and say all bets are a go, regardless of when the Super Bowl is played.
This move eliminates all the chaos that would have come in the hundreds of thousands of dollars in proposition bets already made in Las Vegas on the game and heaven only knows the number offshore.
On the subject of proposition bets, the sharps and wiseguys have been betting them with both hands this week and in many cases placing limit wagers of $2,000. The action was so heavy at many casinos, the big bettors were permitted to place just two wagers at a time and created a situation in which they would bet and then curl around and go back to the end of the line to await the chance to make two more bets.
While many feel proposition bets are sucker wagers-and in most cases they are-the sharps spend weeks calculating the possibilities and come out firing at the open, because they know they have the edges, which soon disappear as the money comes in.
The edge the sports books have over bettors with the props are right there in black and white. On straight bets, they hold an about 4.0% while with the proposition bets they held up to 35.0%.
For the record, the Super Book at the Las Vegas Hotel again offers the most proposition wagers-300 of them to be exact.
My Super Bowl Record 23-3 Since 2001
It is always at this time of the year I give credit to the late Hank Stram for my success in winning the Super Bowl. Stram was for years a mentor who was a master analyst of the NFL and the Super Bowl. In the 18 before he passed away, he was right by a 17-1 margin and was gracious and kind enough to share with me his 42-point formula for winning. I have used it ever since, and my record of success certainly speaks for itself.
Last season I was so confident on the success I had had with Stram's formula that for the first time every released the Super Bowl at the 400-unit level, with these winning results:
- 300 units on the underdog Baltimore Ravens (+5) who beat the San Francisco 49ers, 34-31 straight up.
- 50 units on "over" 47 and that number ell 65
- 50 units on a side/total parlay of the Ravens and the "over"
It was my biggest Super Bowl score ever in more than four decades of handicapping the game and left me 11-2 in sides and 12-1 in totals since 2001--a win percentage of 85.5 in the biggest football game of them all.
The 400-unit encore is coming Sunday, or whenever the game is played.
This Super Bowl Rides On Two Questions
This year's Super Bowl is a classic matchup between the record breaking offense of the Denver Broncos and the lockdown defense of the Seattle Seahawks which may well be one of the best defenses to compete in this game since the Pittsburgh Steelers' and their famous "Iron Curtain" unit. This leaves handicappers with two obvious questions, neither of which has an easy answer.
1. Can Seattle slow down a Denver offense that, led by record-breaking quarterback Peyton Manning (5,477 yards, 55 touchdown, just 11 interceptions and with a passing efficiency rating of 115.1) averaged an NFL best in total offense (457 yards per game) and scoring (37.1 points per game)?
2. Can Denver and its high-octane record-setting offense get the best of a Seattle Seahawks defense that was ranked #1 in the NFL in yards allowed (273.6 per game), #1 in points allowed (14.4 per game) and #1 against the pass (172 yards per game)?
It is not a stretch when one says this is a classic offense vs. defense game.
The key to winning this game is to figure out which team has an answer to those questions and I do have the answers.
I scouted SEC football for many years and have the eyes of an eagle when it comes to figuring out why teams can do what they do to befuddle their opponents and beat them.
Have you ever wondered how Manning always seems to get at least one receiver wide-open on every down, or why Seattle's defense can close holes as fast as they open?
I know why and how Manning's passing game keeps ripping defenses to shreds.
I know why and how Seattle's lockdown defense never lets an offense get to rolling and in rhythm.
This Super Bowl has all the makings of one of the best in history and I intend to again win it for all of us.