Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, February 20, 2014 at 2:00 PM
You’re already starting to see it across the college basketball landscape. And, you’re going to see a lot more of it during this relative “dead zone” from now and the beginning of conference tournaments. BAD college basketball teams get REALLY bad late in a losing season. You want to see out these towel tossers and bet against them as often as possible.
Why does this happen?
*There’s literally NOTHING to play for until a shot at a miracle in a tournament
*Bad teams often run into superior opponents who DO have something to play for
*Players on bad teams get SICK of EACH OTHER!
*Players on bad teams get SICK of THEIR COACH! (And vice versa)
*Bad teams get no respect from officials, which costs them at the free throw line
*Bad teams de-generate into selfish offensive basketball that kills scoring
*Bad teams stop playing help defense, which allows opponents to score more easily
It’s a harmonic convergence of our regular keys here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping. Bad teams usually don’t have PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS to begin with. Now, they also lack THE MOTIVATION FACTOR because the season is already a lost cause until the conference tournament gives them a chance to get hot and dream of being Cinderella.
Now, I have to admit that some of these teams are already so bad that you won’t get much line value fading them. You’d better be sure the favorite is going to blow and go for a full 40 minutes before you lay -16 or -20 in a conference game! But, the list of towel tossers will really start to grow with each passing day. And historically, that’s started to become a very big deal on this particular weekend of the calendar.
I’m always giving you new homework to do here in the coursework. This is your assignment for tonight and this weekend:
*Scour recent scoresheets to look for teams who have already thrown in the towel
*Focus very intently on this week’s results to find new towel tossers
*Pay particular attention to teams who miss their weekend Vegas spread by at least 8 points
*Read the boxscores, focusing on poor shooting percentages and soft defense/rebounding
*Try to do this for ALL conferences because every league has at least one
Towel tossers are rarely subtle about it. The evidence is everywhere. But, oddsmakers are slow to adjust their Power Ratings properly to account for the new lower level of play. And, the new reliance from sportsbooks on analytics and algorithms actually helps gamblers out here. The databases are so heavily influenced by prior action that the new lower level of team performance won’t influence the “season-to-date” data. What YOU see WITH YOUR OWN EYES won’t register with computers for awhile!
As you’ve seen from KELSO STURGEON in the past in college sports, some of my biggest late season releases involve absolute blowout scenarios when a well-oiled machine that needs a big result is facing a losing team that’s given up hope. When this combination of factors lines up, oddsmakers cannot make a line high enough. For me and my clients, that will create 50-unit, 100-unit, and maybe even 200-unit releases over the next several days. For do-it-yourselfers, your “percentage of bankroll” approach should be isolating some very large betting opportunities.
Now that you’re committed to riding the rapids through March Madness, it’s very important that you get in synch with the reality of the sport. If you feel a bit intimidated, additional help is always just a few clicks away. You can purchase my top plays every day at this very website with your major credit card. Information about seasonal packages is available in the Vegas-Sports-Masters home office at 1-888-777-4155. Please ask for one of my personal representatives.
Back with you early next week to talk more basketball. The tournaments will be here before you know it. Time truly FLIES by at this stage of the sports calendar. Be confident that all the coursework you’re doing will be worth it in the long run. KELSO STURGEON is living proof that hard work always pays off!