Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, February 3, 2014 at 2:00 PM
We’ve reached the point in the college basketball season where many games on the nightly card are going to be “revenge” games that are rematches from earlier in the season. Many Las Vegas bettors make the mistake of either putting too much value on revenge, or too little, depending on the situation. The Dean of Sports Handicapping is here today to tell you the RIGHT way to bet revenge in college hoops.
ONLY BET ON TEAMS CAPABLE OF EXTRACTING REVENGE
There are a lot of bad teams in college basketball who spend most of the second half of the season in “revenge” spots because they lose all the time. Revenge is meaningless for bad teams because they’re not capable of doing anything about it…and there’s no emotional boost because they’re perpetually in that state anyway. Don’t waste time trying to take flyers on big ugly underdogs because revenge might come into play. Sure, these teams will cover spread here and there. But, you can’t count on them to deliver for you on command. The first thing you need to know about revenge in college basketball is that the angle should usually be ignored!
REVENGE IS STRONGEST WHEN THE SUPERIOR TEAM HAS REVENGE
This is where you need to pay attention. When the superior team was upset in the first meeting, they’ll be chomping at the bit to make up for that embarrassment. Oddsmakers may adjust 1-2 points for revenge (though, they often don’t adjust at all from their normal Power Ratings) when this factor can worth 7-10 points in this kind of situation. Now, I’m not saying that this approach works 100% of the time. This is college basketball. Sometimes the shots don’t fall…sometimes the refs are smiling on the other team. But, you’ll win a lot more than you lose over time by looking at “superior” revenge teams. And, you’ll often find some fantastic Las Vegas bets that are worth 100 units or more.
REVENGE CAN BE HUGE WITH AN EDGE IN PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS
And, those 100 unit or bigger bets typically come when the superior team has a dramatic edge in PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS. This is always a point of emphasis in my handicapping as you know. It really comes into play in very dramatic fashion when coupled with THE MOTIVATION FACTOR. Revenge is a great motivation factor! Teams with great point guards and multiple scoring threats will run up the score in revenge situations. If they were supposed to win by 5-8 points, they’ll more than double the spread. If they’re supposed to win by double digits, they will often have the full game spread covered by halftime on the way to a slaughter. Knowing who has revenge becomes a huge money-maker when you can add that into a set of circumstances where there was already an inherent advantage.
BET ON REVENGE IN CLASSIC OR NEW RIVALRIES
I’ve often told you to pay attention to revenge in rivalry games. That’s true from year-to-year in college football. It’s certain true from month to month in the baskets as well. The point I want to make right now is that the new college basketball landscape is creating new rivalries right before our eyes. Teams that didn’t play each other in the past are now conference foes. This is going to create INSTANT RIVALRIES within the new alignments. You need to recognize which matchups are falling into this category in the ACC, the Big East, the American Athletic Conference, and so on. Look for spirited efforts in rematches amongst the new rivalries.
If you’re a regular student here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping, then you’re already used to doing hard work. I strongly advise you to channel those efforts into these nightly handicapping steps:
*Know who has revenge in EVERY board game
*Isolate which revenge-minded teams are superior in Power Ratings or computer ratings
*Isolate which revenge-minded teams have clear and dramatic PLAYMAKER advantages
*Isolate rivalry revenge whenever it shows up
Winners will literally jump off the page if you make this effort. Yes, the vast majority of games will register as passes. But, the money you make from the isolated blockbusters will more than pay you for your time and trouble. You’ll be ignoring revenge when it doesn’t really matter, and cashing in big when it does.
If you’d like some assistance finding the best games on the basketball board every night (revenge or otherwise), my game day selections can be purchased here at this very website with your major credit card. If you’d like information about signing up for the rest of basketball through March Madness or the NBA Playoffs, talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters home office at 1-888-777-4155.
I’ll be back with you again next week to talk more baskets. Thanks again for all the hard work and passion you bring to the coursework!