Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, January 21, 2014 at 1:41 PM
Money Speaks Quickly As Denver Opens As Underdog
And Is Now 2.5-Point Super Bowl Favorite
Sharps And Wiseguys Down At Denver +2.5
While Today’s Broncos’ Bettors will Have To Lay -2.5
I Won My 1st Ever 400-Unit Super Bowl Play
Last Year And Intend To Do The Same In Two Weeks
There Are But Two Universal Rules Of College
Basketball Handicapping—And They Can Bite You
By Kelso Sturgeon
As seasoned veterans of the world of sports betting say, “money talks and B.S. walks”, and they could even add it speaks loudly and swiftly. That was never more apparent than when betting lines opened for the February 2 Super Bowl. Three seconds after the final tick of the clock fell on Seattle’s 23-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers the Seahawks were posted as 1.5 to 2.5-point favorites and less than 20 seconds later Denver was –1.
At a few Las Vegas betting shops the game opened as a pick’em and the books from all the Station Casinos stood alone as they opened Denver -3.
The sharps and the wiseguys poured it in on Denver plus the points and by Sunday night the Broncos were out to -2 and in most Las Vegas sports books out to -2.5 Monday morning. Offshore the dominate number was Denver -2. The total on the game was a solid 47.5.
Here one can see the value of doing one’s homework in advance, decide where one is going and then take a stand in just seconds after the number is posted. This means the sharps and wiseguys are now down with Denver at +2.5 while the rest of the world and the legions who like the Broncos can get in at -2.5.
They are not known as sharps and wiseguys for nothing.
Whatever their reasons for finding value in the Broncos plus the points, one must respect that.
The game will be played Sunday, February 2, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, (home of the New York Giants and Jets), and is a classic matchup between a tremendous offensive team, Denver, and a tremendous defensive team, Seattle.
Denver led the NFL in offense, averaging 454.9 yards and 36.4 points per game, while Seattle had the too-rated defense, giving up an average of just 282.5 yards and 14.6 points per game.
My Super Bowl Play Will Again Be At 400 Units
Last season I released my first-ever 400-unit Super Bowl play and am going to do the same thing this time around.
It was 300 units on the underdog Baltimore Ravens (+4.5) over the San Francisco 49ers and the Ravens won straight up, 34-31.
It was 50 units on the total, taking “under” 48 points, with the winner coming in at 68 points.
It was a 50-unit side/total parlay at odds of 13-5 and that too came in to put the icing on the cake for one of the biggest Super Bowl weekends ever.
When the Broncos and Seahawks meet, the bets will all be the same—300 units on the side, 50 units on the total and 50-units on the parlay.
Being Bitten By One Universal Rule
As I have noted many times this basketball season, betting lines are tighter than a dead heat, a reality driven home day-after-day night-after-night by all the games that go into the final minute of play with the pointspread outcome still undecided.
This situation requires in-depth handicapping of every day’s schedule, especially in the colleges, and even the best of handicapping can go astray and produce an unexpected loser. As one who some 40 years ago got his start in this business making college betting lines for bookmakers in New York City and northern New Jersey I came to realize that there are very real hazards on both sides of the counter.
In the end, I concluded there are but two rules of sports betting:
1. You can do everything right and still be wrong.
2. There is an exception to every rule.
Rule #1 was in play last night with my 15-unit play on once-beaten Villanova (-6.5) over Creighton.
In this game Creighton jumped out to a 24-5 lead in the first five minutes of play, was up 42-27 at the half and never looked back. Few teams in the country have been as hot as were the Bluejays last night. They hit 57% of their field goal attempts (33-of-58) but more importantly 60% of their 3-pointers (21-0f-35). It would take a miracle to the 100th power to overcome shooting like that.
I know I did everything right in handicapping this game, but I still lost. It is just a reality of the game. On some nights, things happen that cannot be overcome.
Tuesday Night’s Betting Menu
All Games Available On This Website
And At 1-888-777-4155
The Tuesday night college basketball schedule is another one loaded with opportunities to win a bet and I am releasing two teams in the 15 games (10 of which are on national TV) to my Best Bets Basketball Investment Club clients. First there will be a 15-unit play on a talented underdog that is set to play its best game and then a 10-unit play on a modest favorite my figures say will win in blowout fashion. Win both games for just $15, charged to your major credit card.
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There are just some college basketball teams that, for whatever reason, never seem to get any respect from those making betting lines and thus offer us occasional chances to make a big score and tonight we have one of those teams in action. This team is dramatically better than its opponent, is being offered to the public with the softest betting line I have seen in the past week and should score a giant win in this one. Get all the cash with this 50-unit play PLUS A BONUS 25-UNIT NBA PLAY, for just $35, charged to your major credit card.