Submitted by Jim Hurley on Thursday, January 16, 2014 at 6:09 PM
THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PREVIEW
PATRIOTS-BRONCOS IS MORE THAN JUST THE BRADY VS. MANNING MATCHUP AS WE SPELL OUT THE KEYS TO GETTING TO SUPER BOWL XLVIII
No matter how you slice it, it’s still hard to believe that Peyton Manning has won only one AFC Championship Game since the 2007 season (see 2009) and that Tom Brady’s not won a single Super Bowl since the 2004 campaign -- but that’s the facts as we head into Sunday’s epic AFC Championship Game between the visiting New England Patriots at the 5 ½-point favorite Denver Broncos.
What … think we’re all-of-a-sudden labeling these two guys “losers”? No way!
Still, when you dig a bit deeper into recent National Football League post-season history you’ll see that since 2005 the likes of Pittsburgh Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger has appeared in (and won) three different AFC Championship Games while Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been a part of three AFC title tilts since 2008 while winning his lone AFC Championship Game a year ago.
Okay, so Brady and Manning deserve their respective places on the Mount Rushmore of NFL quarterbacks – for sure – but just to get the wacky media folks/NFL fans to put things in perspective here, the fact is between this dynamic duo of signal-callers they own just one Super Bowl win in all the past eight years (see Manning’s crown with Indianapolis in 2006) and so heaven knows both Brady and Manning would like to change all that, right?
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME – NEW ENGLAND (13-4) at DENVER (14-3) – 3 p.m. ET, CBS
Have you had a little chicken soup, Mr. Brady? The Patriots’ three-time Super Bowl-winning star has been bogged down this week with some health issues – all we hear is that there was a whole lot of hand washing and sanitizer spritzers in/around the New England facilities this week – but Brady should be 100 percent good-to-go here even though he comes off one of his strangest-ever post-season games where he didn’t throw a single touchdown (or a single interception, for that matter) in last Saturday night’s 43-22 win/cover against 7-point underdog Indianapolis.
Brady’s “game-manager” bit came about because bruising RB LeGarrette Blount (166 yards rushing and 4 TDs including a game-sealing 73-yard romp) took the proverbial bull by the horns and pushed the Pats past the frisky Colts with a ground game that gobbled up 234 yards while averaging a slick 5.1 yards a pop.
Will Blount be so effective here against a Denver defense that sports more size along the defensive front? Good question.
Odds are New England head coach Bill Belichick will give his blessing to a balanced attack – last week the Patriots rushed the ball on 63 percent of their offensive plays and we fully expect that to change to closer to 50/50 here – and no doubt while NE hopes to see Blount and fellow RBs Stevan Ridley (two short TD runs last week against Indy) and Shane Vereen chew up yards and clock here while attempting to keep Mr. Manning on the sidelines, the gut feeling here is Brady (weather permitting, of course) will test that battered Broncos’ secondary that struggled so much in the final frame of last Sunday’s 24-17 hang-on-for-dear-life non-cover win over the 9-point underdog San Diego Chargers.
The key question here is who will be Brady’s top red-zone target without the presence of TE Rob Gronkowski – might Vereen coming out of the backfield be the key player-to-watch here?
If Pats’ offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels dares to be different, he’ll have Brady zing a few deep balls early on with the hopes that isolating the likes of Denver CB Quentin Jammer on one of New England’s speedier receivers can yield some “chunk plays” – something we didn’t see much of in last week’s AFC Divisional Playoff win by the Patriots.
Still, while New England’s “change of personality” to a more ground-oriented bunch lately has been getting plenty of ink the fact of the matter is the single-biggest issue here is how do the Patriots handle the Manning-led passing attack?
If you happened to notice, Manning was not sacked at all in last week’s win against the Bolts – he finished a modest 25-of-36 for 230 yards passing with two TDs and one INT (that should have been caught by WR Eric Decker in the end zone right before halftime) – and the stats-meisters out there in NFL-land say Manning was “under duress” on only 2-of-36 drop-backs and no question the Patriots will have to do better than that here – in fact, if Manning’s uniform “stays clean” here than Denver likely wins by a twin-figure margin as it’s done in seven of the team’s nine home games this year but if Belichick and DC Matt Patricia can dial up some well-timed blitzes here and make Manning chuck-and-duck, than New England could well get back to its sixth Super Bowl since 2001.
Two quickie memos for the Broncos’ offense: You better hang onto the ball this week after a series of critical drops a week ago as not only Decker botched that one red-zone throw but TE Julius Thomas dropped a pass and ditto for slot WR Wes Welker who cost Manning a touchdown on one play where all Welker had to do was secure the ball and land back-first in the end zone – if drops becomes an issue here and if Denver RBs Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball (a combined 134 rushing yards last week on 33 carries) can’t always move the chains against a Patriots’ defense that has held eight foes (including the last three in a row) to 22 points or less, than we could be heading towards just the third AFC Championship Game upset in the past 10 years.
The other memo we wish to address the Denver offense? You need a few more stretch-the-field plays – note last week neither of the Broncos’ leading pass-catchers (that’s TE Thomas and WR Demaryius Thomas) had receptions longer than 21 yards while the likes of Decker and Welker didn’t have plays longer than 19 yards.
Manning may love the hunt-and-peck ways to at times chew up an opposing defense but do you really think that New England’s stop unit will surrender a handful-or-so 75-plus yard scoring drives here?
Hey, don’t forget the wind could – again – be a major factor here at Sports Authority Field – no doubt CBS game analyst Phil Simms was a bit slow on the draw last week when it concerned the swirling/twisting winds.
And so New England PK Steven Gostkowski and Denver PK Matt Prater could be forced to try a game-winning/tying boot into an unforgiving head wind … you have been warned!
Spread Notes – Denver is 10-7 ATS (against the spread) overall this season and that includes a modest 5-4 ATS home log. The Broncos are a stirring 20-9 spreadwise as betting favorites since the start of last year/the Manning Era. Meanwhile, New England enters this title tilt at 9-8 ATS overall this season and that includes two-of-three spread setbacks when placed in the underdog role. Since 2003, however, the Patriots are a dazzling 20-10-1 ATS as point-grabbers.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Here’s a game-by-game look at this year’s New England Patriots and note all home teams are in CAPS below:
|1||New England||- 10||BUFFALO||23-21|
|2||NEW ENGLAND||- 11||Ny Jets||13-10|
|3||NEW ENGLAND||- 7||Tampa Bay||23-3|
|4||New England||+ 3||ATLANTA||30-23|
|5||CINCINNATI||+ 2||New England||13-6|
|6||NEW ENGLAND||- 2||New Orleans||30-27|
|7||NY JETS||+ 3.5||New England||30-27 (ot)|
|8||NEW ENGLAND||- 6.5||Miami||27-17|
|9||NEW ENGLAND||- 6||Pittsburgh||55-31|
|11||CAROLINA||- 3||New England||24-20|
|12||NEW ENGLAND||PK||Denver||34-31 (ot)|
|13||New England||- 7||HOUSTON||34-31|
|14||NEW ENGLAND||- 10||Cleveland||27-26|
|15||MIAMI||- 2.5||New England||24-20|
|16||New England||- 1.5||BALTIMORE||41-7|
|17||NEW ENGLAND||- 7||Buffalo||34-20|
|Div||NEW ENGLAND||- 7||Indianapolis||43-22|
Div = Divisional Playoff Game
Here’s a game-by-game look at this year’s Denver Broncos and note all home teams are in CAPS below:
|2||Denver||- 3.5||NY GIANTS||41-23|
|10||Denver||- 7||SAN DIEGO||28-20|
|11||DENVER||- 7.5||Kansas City||27-17|
|13||Denver||- 5.5||KANSAS CITY||35-28|
|15||San Diego||+ 10||DENVER||27-20|
|Div||DENVER||- 9||San Diego||24-17|
Div = Divisional Playoff Game
A key reminder, folks … Get Sunday’s NFL Championship Game Sides & Totals Winners when you check with us after 9:30 a.m. ET game-day morning plus pile up the profits all this week/weekend long with NBA and NCAA Basketball winners right here online or at our toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453 – go ahead and pound the books today!
Finally, your AFC Championship Game note...Only three of the last 10 AFC Championship Games have been one-score games including that monumental 2006 game when Manning’s Indianapolis Colts raced from way back to beat Brady’s Patriots 38-34 as 3-point home favorites.
THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PREVIEW
IT’S 49ERS-SEAHAWKS IN AN OLD-FASHIONED GRUDGE MATCH OUT WEST BUT WILL TITLE GAME EXPERIENCE TRUMP ALL ELSE HERE?
It could well be that the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks – combatants in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game and fierce rivals for the past few years – learned the lessons taught to ‘em years ago by their moms/dads/guardians …
If you don’t have something nice to say about someone, than say nothing at all!
So that explains why there’s been plenty of deafening silence ‘round these teams the past few days as they get ready to square off at CenturyLink Field in Seattle come 6:30 p.m. Eastern time Sunday.
No need for a refresher course here: Everyone knows that the last two trips into the Emerald City weren’t very nice experiences for the SF 49ers who lost 42-13 last year in the next-to-last regular-season game and then there was that Week 2 tilt this year when the Seahawks – a 3-point favorite – slammed San Fran 29-3.
For you pointspread aficionados, the Seahawks actually have covered the last five consecutive showdowns against the 49ers as you have to go back to head coach Jim Harbaugh’s debut with the Niners in the season opener in 2011 to find the last time San Francisco “got the cash” in one of these games as the 49ers bagged a 33-17 home win as 6-point betting favorites back then … but that’s truly ancient history stuff now, right?
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME --SAN FRANCISCO (14-4) at SEATTLE (14-3) – 6:30 p.m. ET, Fox
So, just how much does title game experience or big-game experience mean here? Note this is San Francisco’s seventh post-season game in less than three full seasons for the aforementioned Harbaugh who becomes the first-ever NFL head coach to deliver his team to the conference championship game in each of his first three years on the job – while the flip side says this is Seattle’s sixth playoff appearance in less than four full years under boss-man Pete Carroll but the Seahawks have not appeared in an NFC Championship Game since 2005 and so you do have to wonder what SF’s three title tilts and one Super Bowl appearance mean in comparison with Seattle’s less-heralded recent playoff past.
The Niners – no doubt – also hope that this road warrior business continues here after winning back-to-back playoff games in Green Bay (NFC Wild Card Round) and in Carolina (in last week’s NFC Divisional Playoff action) and please don’t forget that the 49ers actually played (and won) their final regular-season game on the road this season with that down-to-the-wire 23-20 triumph in Arizona.
Okay, so maybe that’s the other side of the proverbial coin here and that’s the Niners won’t have “their legs” after playing three consecutive road games the past three weeks and maybe this is where not having the playoff bye week comes back to haunt Harbaugh’s crew – it all makes for a juicy showdown in the great northwest where the Seahawks need the following to happen if they’re gonna survive and advance to Super Bowl XLVIII at MetLife Stadium in two-plus weeks from now:
Seattle not only needs “Beast” RB Marshawn Lynch (28 carries for 140 yards and two TDs in last week’s 23-15 non-cover win against New Orleans in NFC Divisional Playoff round action) to bust out yet another 130-plus yard ground game – he’s already had three of them in his post-season career – but the ‘Hawks must get some semblance of a passing game here one week after QB Russell Wilson threw for a career-low 103 yards passing. True, Wilson didn’t have to chuck it a lot after the Seahawks charged out to a 13-0 lead against the Saints just a minute into the second quarter of play but something tells us the former N.C. State/Wisconsin star has to stretch the field a bit in order for Lynch to be effective in the ground game.
And that means both WR Golden Tate (just one reception worth 13 yards last week and seemingly a bit intimidated by the New Orleans secondary) and TE Zach Miller (one catch for 11 yards against N’Orleans) must come alive here and get Wilson’s medium-range aerial attention.
One final thing the Seahawks need on their “to do list” here:
Seattle must make the proper adjustments according to the weather – last week Saints’ slinger Drew Brees took forever before he found a rhythm and wet/windy conditions really hamstrung the New Orleans offense while the Seahawks welcomed the messy conditions and PK Steven Hauschka even thrived in it with field goals of 38, 49 and 26 yards. If Hauschka handles what could be similar weather conditions here better than San Fran veteran PK Phil Dawson, than that alone could be the difference between winning and losing this NFC Championship Game.
Okay, so it’s no mystery that San Francisco has been super hard-pressed to score against this rough-and-tumble Seattle defense but are the Niners gonna “re-invent” themselves at this late stage of the season?
The answer is a resounding “no” but consider this: San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick – who has thrown four picks in his two career starts in Seattle – might want OC Greg Roman to “mix it up” here with more first-down passes and some draws/traps out of the shotgun that might get hard-charging RB Frank Gore (84 yards rushing last week) out in space.
No doubt the return of WR Michael Crabtree (8 catches for 125 yards in the playoff win at Lambeau Field two weeks ago) has helped immensely and there’s always super-clutch WR Anquan Boldin (8 catches for 136 yards in the 23-10 win at Carolina last Sunday) to bolster the cause but it’s all about balance here for the Niners – a near 50-50 run/pass split would be terrific and must include at least a handful of positive rushing plays by Kaepernick himself.
The defenses are ready to rock and roll: One week after the Niners’ stop unit didn’t surrender a single touchdown to Carolina on the Panthers’ 10 plays from scrimmage inside the SF 10-yard line, there’s reason to believe that LBs Ahmad Brooks, NoVarro Bowman and Patrick Willis are capable of shutting anyone down cold but the flip side says Seattle’s defense – starring CB Richard Sherman (8 INTs this year) -- has held nine foes to 15 points or less this year and note the Niners have averaged just 13.4 ppg in the last five showdowns between these now-hated rivals.
And you don’t really believe 13 points will be enough for San Fran to win this one, do you? The grudge match is on … only the strongest will survive (and advance). Buckle up those chinstraps, fellas!
Spread Notes – San Francisco is 11-5-2 ATS (against the spread) overall this season and that now makes the 49ers a collective 33-18-4 ATS in the three-year Harbaugh Era (a .647 winning rate). Note that the Niners are 1-1-1 spreadwise as underdogs this year and 7-4-2 ATS as pups since the start of the 2011 season. On the flip side, Seattle is 11-6 versus the vig overall this season including a 4-2 spread mark when facing fellow NFC West foes. Did you know the Seahawks are 24-10 ATS overall at home in the Carroll Era that began back in 2010 (that’s a sizzling .706 winning percentage)?
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Here’s a game-by-game look at this year’s San Francisco 49ers and note all home teams are in CAPS below:
|1||SAN FRANCISCO||- 5||Green Bay||34-28|
|2||SEATTLE||- 3||San Francisco||29-3|
|3||Indianapolis||+ 10.5||SAN FRANCISCO||27-7|
|4||San Francisco||- 3.5||ST. LOUIS||35-11|
|5||SAN FRANCISCO||- 4.5||Houston||34-3|
|6||SAN FRANCISCO||- 10||Arizona||32-20|
|7||San Francisco||- 3.5||TENNESSEE||31-17|
|8||# San Francisco||- 16||Jacksonville||42-10|
|10||Carolina||+ 6||SAN FRANCISCO||10-9|
|11||NEW ORLEANS||- 3||San Francisco||23-20|
|12||San Francisco||- 5||WASHINGTON||27-6|
|13||SAN FRANCISCO||- 7.5||St. Louis||23-13|
|14||SAN FRANCISCO||- 2.5||Seattle||19-17|
|15||San Francisco||- 5.5||TAMPA BAY||33-14|
|16||SAN FRANCISCO||- 14.5||Atlanta||34-24|
|17||San Francisco||+ 3||ARIZONA||23-20|
|WC||San Francisco||- 3||GREEN BAY||23-20|
|Div||San Francisco||- 1.5||CAROLINA||23-10|
# = in London (a Jacksonville
WC = Wild Card Game
Div = Divisional Playoff Game
Here’s a game-by-game look at this year’s Seattle Seahawks and note all home teams are in CAPS below:
|2||SEATTLE||- 3||San Francisco||29-3|
|4||Seattle||- 1||HOUSTON (ot)||23-20|
|9||SEATTLE||- 16.5||Tampa Bay||27-24 (ot)|
|13||SEATTLE||- 6.5||New Orleans||34-7|
|14||SAN FRANCISCO||- 2.5||Seattle||19-17|
|15||Seattle||- 9||NY GIANTS||23-0|
|17||SEATTLE||- 11.5||St. Louis||27-9|
|Div||SEATTLE||- 9||New Orleans||23-15|
Div = Divisional Playoff Game
NOTE: There’s more NFL Championship Game News & Notes plus College Hoops too in the next edition of Jim Sez.