Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, January 2, 2014 at 4:00 PM
I can’t tell you how excited I am about the start of the NFL Playoffs this Saturday and Sunday. It’s the first big weekend of a new year…which means it’s CRUCIAL to get things going on the right note. You want to set the tone for a winning 2014 right out of the gate!
Here are what I believe will be the most important keys to picking winners in this weekend’s four games. I’m not going to talk specifically about my selections. That information is for paying clients. But, I want to share my general thought process with all students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping.
PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS
It always starts here for the Dean of Sports Handicappers. And, it’s arguably MORE important in playoff games than at any other time because everybody focuses so intently on getting the ball in the hands of the most important players.
*Star quarterbacks have a big edge over game managers
*Star running backs can carry a team to victory on their shoulders
*Deep receiving corps can prove to be unstoppable against all but the best defenses
*Defensive stars can also turn a game around with a sack or a forced turnover
There are only eight teams playing this weekend. Sit down right now and make a note of all the true PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS on the field for each team. You’ll be surprised how quickly this clarifies your thinking about each matchup. And, at how it really isolates very strong bets that you can really load up on. I don’t want to give too much away. But, we’re dealing with mostly short lines this weekend. I can assure you I’ve found at least one mismatch in this category that’s going to look like a gift by the third quarter.
THE COACHING FACTOR
Smart coaching always has an edge over dumb coaching. But, that edge is really magnified in a playoff game. This is why the Hall of Fame is so focused on playoff success when determining which coaches get in. You have to win when it matters! Some coaches aren’t capable of doing that!
*Bet on proven track records, bet against a history of big game failure
*Bet on intelligently aggressive, bet against overly conservative
*Bet on clock management expertise, bet against “panic” prone coaches
Sometimes a coaching advantage leads to a blowout. What’s more likely in playoff games (particularly later in the brackets) is that intelligence is the difference that determines who covers a tight line. Maybe the PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS cancel out. Maybe the weather is an equalizer. Nothing can turn dumb into smart! As I write this, three games have spreads of -2.5. I’m convinced a coaching difference will determine the cover in at least one of them.
We have a unique situation this weekend where we’re likely to have cold weather in three of the four games. It’s not unique that it’s cold in January. But, it’s unique that we don’t have a dome or Southern team hosting more than one Wildcard game. I’m going to tread very lightly here because I don’t want to tip my hand to oddsmakers. Let me say it this way. Smart handicappers need to think VERY carefully about how this weekend’s weather conditions will influence the preferred style of teams playing outdoors. And, they also need to think about the past experience of key players in those conditions.
I really love how this weekend is shaping up. If you’re having trouble seeing what I’m seeing, you can purchase my daily BEST BETS right here at this very website with your major credit card. The best value is to sign up for the rest of football, which takes you through the BCS Championship in the colleges and the Super Bowl in the pros.
If you’d like more details about available packages (including basketball), talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters home office at 1-888-777-4155. I know many of you stay away from basketball until January. It’s now January! You should be winning seven days a week by adding basketball to your arsenal.
Best of luck to you in the remaining bowls and the NFL Wildcard games. We’ll start transitioning to more basketball coursework after college football has ended. Look for at least one NFL report per week through the playoffs…and basketball coverage leading up to and including MARCH MADNESS.
Winning is a year-round prospect with KELSO STURGEON. I’m confident it will be that way for you too as you continue your efforts to become an Advanced Sports Bettor and Handicapper!