Submitted by Jim Hurley on Friday, November 22, 2013 at 7:00 PM
Yesterday we talked about how the Texas A&M Aggies had only played two road games this season. Baylor is another highly ranked team that has been largely untested through the 2013 campaign. They did impress at home against Oklahoma on a recent Thursday Night. But, that was in Waco. What has Baylor done on the road vs. quality opposition this year?
Baylor has only played two true road games…both in the state of Kansas. Taking care of the Jayhawks isn’t difficult at all. At Kansas State?
*Baylor wins by only 10 as a 17-point favorite
*Baylor only wins total yardage by ONE yard
*Baylor allows 327 rushing yards (!!)
That’s not the stuff of greatness considering where Kansas State is this year in the Power Ratings. Hey, it’s a quality win. But, it’s not a “the Bears deserve to be in the BCS discussion” kind of win. Baylor is one of those teams that absolutely obliterates lesser lights because their unrelenting offense runs up the score. Like Oregon does when not playing Stanford. Like the New England Patriots did in recent playoffs until running into top notch defenses. The stuff of illusion!
That brings us to Saturday Night’s make-or-break game on the road at Oklahoma State. This is the defacto Big 12 Championship game most likely, though it’s possible Okie State could beat Baylor before losing at home to disappointing Oklahoma. In terms of conference form, these are clearly the two best teams…therefore it’s the game that’s most likely going to prove whether or not Baylor is as good as its hype.
SUMMARY SINCE SEPTEMBER
Baylor (-29) beat West Virginia 73-42 (winning yardage 864-394)
Baylor (-17) won at Kansas State 35-25 (winning yardage 445-445)
Baylor (-33) beat Iowa State 71-7 (winning yardage 714-174)
Baylor (-35) won at Kansas 59-14 (winning yardage 743-308)
Baylor (-17) beat Oklahoma 41-12 (losing yardage 459-237)
Baylor (-28) beat Texas Tech 63-34 (winning yardage 673-457)
Last week’s game against Texas Tech was played on a neutral field in Arlington. But, indoors on a fast track plays right into Baylor’s hands. Outdoors in chilly weather (forecast for mid 30’s) against a top opponent is going to be something this group of talent has no experience with. Win big here…THEN you’ve got a very good case for knocking on the BCS door to see of Alabama or Florida State will look through the peephole. Lose, and you’re just the latest mirage that knows how to rig the system to create superpower illusions.
Oklahoma State (-13) beat Kansas State 33-29 (losing yardage 330-336)
Oklahoma State (-6) beat TCU 24-10 (losing yardage 415-325)
Oklahoma State (-13) won at Iowa State 58-27 (winning yardage 420-346)
Oklahoma State (-1) won at Texas Tech 52-34 (losing yardage 492-549)
Oklahoma State (-31) beat Kansas 42-6 (winning yardage 359-316)
Oklahoma State (-3) won at Texas 38-13 (losing yardage 380-389)
Can the Cowboys match up with Baylor’s offensive onslaught? That’s far from a sure thing. They did beat a watered down version of Baylor when they slammed Texas Tech 52-34. But, nothing else on the 2013 schedule simulates what Baylor brings to the table. And, those yardage numbers above cast some serious doubt on the OSU’s offensive ability to hang tough. They only broke 400 yards half the time. They couldn’t break 400 yards against Kansas!
If you haven’t been paying attention to the Big 12 this year, Oklahoma State has changed their style. This isn’t Brandon Weeden throwing the ball 65 times a game. OSU only topped 40 pass attempts in 40% of their games. Balance is a very good thing against a team like Baylor because it allows you to move the chains and run clock, while discouraging you from getting into a shootout with them. Kansas State hung tough for three quarters that way. Can Okie State go the distance?
Current Vegas Line: Baylor by 9.5, total of 78
A line like that splits the difference of volatile alternatives. It’s similar to the line we saw in Oregon/Stanford in that regard. If Baylor blows and goes…they’re going to win by double the spread or more. If Oklahoma State can run clock, and get some help from the weather, they’ll be positioned to win the game straight up.
JIM HURLEY knows how much you love betting on the big TV games. Nothing’s more fun than watching yourself win a fortune! But, he also knows not to force plays that aren’t there. To see if Baylor/Oklahoma State made the final cut, purchase the full Saturday package right here at the website with your credit card before the early games kick off. If you have any questions, call us in the office at 1-888-777-4155.Back with you Sunday for the much anticipated Denver/New England game in the NFL that will showcase Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in prime time on NBC. Monday we’ll return with San Francisco/Washington as we transition into Thanksgiving Week.
Tune up for the annual TURKEY SHOOT with a huge weekend of college and pro football action from BIG GAME HUNTER JIM HURLEY!