Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, November 22, 2013 at 4:00 PM
I think one of the biggest problem the market has had this year in both college and pro football is figuring out who’s “for real” amongst surprise teams climbing up the ladder. We have several examples in both sports. And, the jury is still out on more than a few of these teams.
Here’s a quick example from both sports:
*Baylor has been fantastic this season on the scoreboard. But, they haven’t played anybody! Their first true test of the season comes Saturday Night at Oklahoma State. There’s no track record we can look at to determine how the Bears will perform in that matchup. And, if they win and go on to represent the Big 12 in the Fiesta Bowl…the victory over Oklahoma State will be a sample size of ONE for determining what will happen against a big time opponent.
*The Carolina Panthers in the NFL have been on a tear of lately. They certainly seem legit coming off wins over San Francisco and New England. Yet, they barely won both of those games, while catching some officiating help. Is Carolina ready to take out New Orleans twice in December, or thrive in the NFC playoff brackets come January? It’s still a bit too early to say.
Again…I could come up with SEVERAL examples in both sports. You can almost pick one team from all the college football conferences (some have a few). Almost all NFL contenders outside of Denver and Seattle have some question marks. Can you trust Philadelphia yet? Or Kansas City? What do you do with a team like Indianapolis who has scored marquee scalps but then lost to teams like San Diego and St. Louis?
It’s very important that handicappers get the proper read on as many of these question mark teams as possible. You won’t nail them all because the evidence just doesn’t exist to do so. But, if you nail a lot more than half of them…you’ll have a profitable win percentage in all the big college rivalry games, college bowl games, NFL stretch run showcases, and the NFL playoffs.
Some quick tips:
*Make sure you’re up to the moment in your recognition of PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS. Injuries have wreaked havoc in this area so far through 2013. Many important players were lost to injury. But, some are starting to come back! This is step one toward picking winners in every game. Know which team has the advantage in players that have the biggest impact in determining who wins and covers. Invest in HEALTHY teams!
*Study recent defensive form to see which teams may be wearing down from fatigue or attrition. This is more important in the college game…where young athletes often lose their legs in the final weeks in a way that leads to shootouts. You want to invest in teams who are still getting stops defensively. You’re not going to win with a favorite in one of those “whoever has the ball last will win” kind of games. Study the scoreboard and the boxscores to see who’s still thriving on defense as we approach Thanksgiving Week. It’s a lot easier to look like a contender for 10 games than it is for 12 or 16 games. Disappearing defenses will expose some pretenders.
*Pay most attention to results in “challenge” games. Far too many teams have benefitted from soft schedules this season. That’s getting some media run in the colleges. But, many of the top NFL teams also have played easy schedules (both Denver and Seattle as a matter of fact). Greatness isn’t accomplished by bullying bad teams (though great profits can be achieved by betting on bullies!). If you want to know who’s “for real” entering the big games coming up, study very closely what’s happened in recent challenge games.
Among the challenge games I’ll be studying this week in the colleges to get ready for the bowls: Michigan State/Northwestern, Wisconsin/Minnesota, Michigan/Iowa, Arizona State/UCLA, Texas A&M/LSU, Oregon/Arizona, BYU/Notre Dame, Baylor/Oklahoma State, Oklahoma/Kansas State, and Missouri/Ole Miss.
Over in the NFL: San Diego/Kansas City, Carolina/Miami, Indianapolis/Arizona, Dallas/NY Giants, and of course Denver/New England.
I will have a few big plays in those games listed…and other spots on the card that will feature some of my biggest releases so far this season. You can always purchase my BEST BETS here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions can be answered by my representative in the home office at 1-888-777-4155.
The purpose of my College of Sports Betting and Handicapping is to teach YOU how to pick winners on your own. Additional help is always just a few clicks away. And, signing up right before Thanksgiving Week for the rest of the season lets you enjoy the most exciting months of college and pro football at a very affordable price.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping will see you again soon!