Submitted by Jim Hurley on Saturday, November 16, 2013 at 4:00 PM
In an earlier-week edition of Jim Sez we brought you in-depth previews/forecasts of a pair of NFL Week 11 games including Baltimore at Chicago and San Francisco at New Orleans, so let’s keep the pro gridiron beat rollin’ on here with more action as we check out four games on Sunday’s card including the one everyone’s talkin’ about in prime time:
In NFL Week 11 play on Sunday Night, it’s …
KANSAS CITY (9-0) at DENVER (8-1) – 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Here’s the three words that have been getting the most press in/around the NFL this week …
Peyton Manning’s ankles.
No doubt Manning’s sore right ankle was re-aggravated in last Sunday’s 28-20 win at San Diego, but both ankles are bothering Manning, who sat out a Wednesday practice and has been on the gimpy side the past couple of days.
The hard-charging KC Chiefs – who come off their bye week after blitzing Buffalo 23-13 with two defensive touchdowns back in Week 9 play – sport an NFL-best 36 sacks this year, and they’ve been devising ways to get to Manning here, and one strategy could be blitzing defensive backs who will make Manning shift/move quickly in the pocket and that will be a challenge with the bum pegs.
Two main game plan strategies for the KayCee offense that will allow WR Dwayne Bowe (arrested last weekend for speeding and possession of marijuana) to play here:
Get the ball in the hands of RB Jamaal Charles, who has 575 total yards in his last five games against the Broncos – KC should get it to ‘em 25-to-30 times in all – and make sure QB Alex Smith is allowed to take some downfield chucks against a somewhat suspect deep secondary.
Smith may be operating the league’s 27th-ranked passing attack, but you might see some mile high bombs, and note the Las Vegas oddmakers have this totals price hovering right around 50 points … they don’t think Denver’s gonna score all the points, right?
P.S., Kansas City head coach Andy Reid registered a 13-1 SU (straight-up) mark in his post-bye games in Philadelphia. Hmmm.
Spread Notes – Kansas City is 6-3 against the odds this 2013 campaign, and take note that underdog sides are a collective 13-7 versus the vig when these AFC West teams battle it out. Denver is just 5-4 spreadwise this season and the Broncos are a composite 15-7 ATS (against the spread) as betting favorites since the start of last year.
In Sunday afternoon action in NFL Week 11 play, it’s …
NEW YORK JETS (5-4) at BUFFALO (3-7) – 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Give an NFL team something to complain about … and they will!
This week the talk’s been about how the Buffalo Bills are not happy with the fact that both meetings with the rival NY Jets come after gang green had “extra time” to prepare for ‘em.
Back in Week 3 the J-E-T-S were coming off a Thursday Night game in Foxboro – a 13-10 loss-but-cover to the New England Patriots – when they had 10 days to prep for the Bills and the Jets won that penalty-marred game 27-20.
Now, the Jets come off their bye week and get Buffalo, and so management folks with the upstate New York team are moaning and groaning … shut up already!
The Jets’ win-one, lose-one trend gets tested here – they’re “due” to lose – with born-again RB Chris Ivory looking to follow up his season-high 139-yard rushing performance in that 26-20 win against New Orleans back in Week 9 and he’ll get plenty of carries against the NFL’s 22nd-ranked rush defense.
Key to the Bills getting a win here while trying to stop a three-game losing skid:
Get the ball in the hands of C.J. Spiller 30+ times – keep in mind there are WR injury woes with the Bills as Stevie Johnson (groin) and rookie Robert Woods (sprained left ankle) are iffy.
Spread Notes – The New York Jets have covered six of their first nine games this year and note Rex Ryan’s crew is a perfect 3-0 ATS in divisional play. On the flip side, Buffalo’s a dead-even but vig-losing 5-5 spreadwise so far in Year One of the Doug Marrone Era, and the Bills have gone 4-1 ATS in their own back yard.
WASHINGTON (3-6) at PHILADELPHIA (5-5) – 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Key clash in the jumbled NFC East where it’s beginning to look more and more as if a .500 team is gonna win the division … but the $64,000 question here is when will the Eagles win a home game?
The Birdies have dropped their last 10 consecutive home games and that includes divisional tilts already this year against Dallas and the New York Giants – so will Chip Kelly’s club be able to overcome this bugaboo and keep Washington QB Robert Griffin III under wraps – RG3 has eight TDs and three INTs in his three career games against Philly.
Spread Notes – Philadelphia’s split its first 10 pointspread verdicts this year but note the Eagles are just 3-7 spreadwise in their last 10 home games against Washington. The ‘Skins enter this divisional clash at 3-6 vig-wise overall this year including an 0-2 ATS mark against NFC East teams after going 14-4 ATS inside the division from 2010-12.
GREEN BAY (5-4) at NEW YORK GIANTS (3-6) – 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Let’s see …
The Giants have won three in a row heading in here, and now Tom Coughlin’s club is facing off with a third-string quarterback in former Wisconsin whiz Scott Tolzien
Advantage Giants, right?
Well consider that Tolzien completed 24-of-39 passes as an emergency replacement for the injured Seneca Wallace (who was starting last week for the injured Aaron Rodgers) in that 27-13 loss to Philadelphia last Sunday, and reports are he’s looked smooth/sharp in practice this week.
Hey, he might be better than Giants slinger Eli Manning, who has just 11 TDs and 16 INTs – the fact is this is Eli’s worst year since his rookie season in 2004!
Spread Notes – Green Bay is 4-4-1 odds-wise overall this year but did you know the Packers are 19-9 ATS as point-grabbers since the start of the 2007 season? Meanwhile, the New York Giants are 3-6 versus the vig this year (that’s after an 0-5 ATS start) and the G-men are 9-6-1 ATS against fellow NFC competition since early in the 2012 season.
Take note …
NOTE: Lots more in the next edition of Jim Sez including a Monday Night Football Preview/Forecast – that’s the New England Patriots at the Carolina Panthers.