Submitted by Jim Hurley on Friday, November 1, 2013 at 7:00 PM
Instead of the game itself being the big story of the week in college football…#7 Miami visiting #3 Florida State in a game with BCS implications…the fact that Florida State was laying three touchdowns in Las Vegas has become the lead paragraph across the nation (even here!).
For one thing…that tells you how little good there is to say about Miami. The Hurricanes were lucky to beat Wake Forest last week in a look-ahead spot…and didn’t impress the prior Thursday at North Carolina. Frankly, there’s no way in the world Miami is the seventh best team in the country! The media doesn’t want to attack their own bad rating system…so they distract with a Vegas theme instead.
Also worth noting…Florida State was just hyped up in a shootout game against Clemson a few weeks ago. The media emphasis was on Clemson’s strong home field in that situation. ABC went so far as to show Clemson’s players taking a 30-second bus ride around the stadium for a dramatic entrance. Some drama. Florida State obliterated a Clemson team that many in the media had picked to score an upset.
So…yes…it seems weird that a #3 team would be laying 21 or 22 points against a #7 team. That’s because it’s not really happening. Miami is only a #7 team in lala-fantasy-land where coaches and sportswriters rank won-lost records instead of actual team quality.
Though to be fair…Vegas oddsmakers themselves have been slow to recognize the greatness of this FSU team. They finally learned a lesson at Clemson…where a team they had made a 3-point favorite won by 37. A lot of misreads going around this year!
Let’s review what each team has accomplished so far…
Miami (-33) beat Florida Atlantic 34-6 (winning yardage 504-249)
Miami (+3) beat Florida 21-16 (losing yardage 413-212)
Miami (-60) beat Savannah State 77-7 (winning yardage 637-183)
Miami (-17) won at South Florida 49-21 (winning yardage 540-288)
Miami (-5) beat Georgia Tech 45-30 (winning yardage 555-401)
Miami (-8) won at North Carolina 27-23 (winning yardage 556-500)
Miami (-24) beat Wake Forest 24-21 (winning yardage 391-361)
Be sure you read that properly, Miami LOST yardage in the Florida game 413-212. The Hurricanes needed a huge turnover advantage to steal that one at home. And, it’s not like Florida is a real power this year. The blowout win over Georgia Tech truly was impressive. But, we’re still looking at a team that’s more like the equivalent of seventh best in the SEC rather than seventh best in the nation.
Florida State (-11) won at Pittsburgh 41-13 (winning yardage 533-297)
Florida State (-33) beat Nevada 62-7 (winning yardage 617-214)
Florida State (-40) Bethune Cookman 54-6 (winning yardage 492-242)
Florida State (-23) won at Boston College 48-34 (winning yardage 489-398)
Florida State (-16) beat Maryland 63-0 (winning yardage 614-334)
Florida State (-3) won at Clemson 51-14 (winning yardage 566-326)
Florida State (-35) beat NC State 49-17 (winning yardage 566-316)
Saturday’s high pointspread doesn’t seem so high when you realize that FSU’s victory margins vs. ACC opponents have been 28, 14, 63, 37, and 32. That’s an average of 34.8 points per game in league action. If you win by 37 at Clemson…and Miami probably isn’t as good as Clemson…what’s all the fuss about a three-TD pointspread?
Current Vegas Line: Florida State by 21.5, total of 62.5
Handicapping this game is either:
*Florida State obliterates its next victim
*Florida State comes in overconfident and has a replay of their less-than-stellar win at BC
JIM HURLEY has been working with his sources, scouts, statheads, and computer programmers to get the right read on the biggest TV game of the day. The final decision will either be a stand-alone major release or a key leg in a TV Triple Crown Parlay. You can purchase the full Saturday ticket right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call the office Saturday morning before kickoff at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about early season basketball when you call.
Back with you Sunday and Monday in the NOTEBOOK to run our key numbers in the prime time NFL games…Indianapolis at Houston on NBC and Chicago at Green Bay on ESPN.
Now…buckle up for another huge Saturday of college football action from JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK…where BCS stands for BIG CASH SUPERPLAYS!