Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, November 1, 2013 at 5:00 PM
We’re deep enough into the college and pro football seasons now that there’s plenty of evidence at your disposal regarding the best “bet against” teams. It’s not hard to find them. All you have to do is look through the game logs and statistical breakdowns.
The month of November is going to be chock full of major releases for my football clients because Las Vegas oddsmakers really have no defense against an approach that specializes in “bet against” teams. History has made it very clear that they can’t put the numbers in the right place.
In the colleges…
Teams who should be underdogs of 40 or more will be +27 to +33
Teams who should be underdogs of 31 or more will be +18 to +24
Teams who should be underdogs of 24 or more will be +13 to +17
In the NFL…
Teams who should be situational underdogs of 17 or more will be +11 to +14
Teams who should be situational underdogs of 10-14 will be +7 or +8
Teams who should be situational underdogs of 7-9 will be +4 to +6
Things are tighter in the NFL because there are only 32 teams who are more tightly packed on a Power Ratings scale. That’s why many of my biggest unit-rated releases are in projected college blowouts. That’s where the biggest edges truly lie.
Here’s how you uncover the best “go against” teams:
*Look for defenses who allow at least 30 points on a consistent basis, and 40+ points to opponents who know what they’re doing (in the NFL, make those numbers 24 and 31). Defenses who are already bad DON’T GET BETTER in the final month of a season of a college season or the final two months of a pro season! If anything, get worse because of injury attrition and the loss of THE MOTIVATION FACTOR because they’ve thrown in the towel. Defenses who are already showing up as bad in the numbers are virtual locks to get routed by good offenses that they face. Oddsmakers will be pricing on recent performance, without realizing these bad defenses are about to get worse.
*Look for defenses who allow 300 passing yards on a consistent basis, and at least 350 to opponents with good quarterbacks (in the NFL, make those numbers 240 and 280). Bad pass defenses just lay down and pray for mercy when they face good quarterbacks in the latter stages of a season. The legs aren’t there any more to chase receivers. Big plays are allowed constantly and there’s no resistance in the red zone. Points determine who’s going to cover spreads. Defenses with no pass defense will let opponents run away and hide on the scoreboard. Let all of those easy-to-earn points make you rich!
*Look for offenses with unproductive or turnover prone quarterbacks. Great bets aren’t all about exploiting bad defenses. You also want to bet against teams who can’t score in the first half or in garbage time. Right now there are quarterbacks who are in way over their heads all over the college and pro landscape. It’s not hard to find them in the game logs. Look for offenses who are consistently in the teens or worse in scoring. Look at the giveaway totals to find the most mistake-prone teams. Look for offenses who struggle to reach 300 total yards in the college game, and 275 total yards in the NFL.
If you’ve been doing your homework in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping all season, you already know who the most explosive PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS are in college and pro football. And, that knowledge has been serving you well. From this point forward, monster money-making situations are going to jump off the board at you when those potent offenses are facing the worst defenses. Be sure you know who the worst defenses are. Then, cull that list down further whenever they’re paired with a turnover prone offense that can’t play catch up. Again, oddsmakers simply cannot price these games correctly!
We wrapped up October college football with a 250-unit winner on Notre Dame over Air Force. That was an easy winner…even though Notre Dame isn’t particularly potent on offense this year. The “go against” elements for Air Force were so strong and varied that even a sluggish offense like Notre Dame’s was going to post a big number against them. Now…imagine what’s going to happen the rest of the way when the most potent college offenses are lined up against myriad overmatched, undersized, shorthanded teams who have already thrown in the towel on the season!
Whether you’re a do-it-yourselfer, or a regular Kelso Sturgeon client, you’re positioned to have one of the greatest months of your gambling life as we speak. Please remember that you can purchase my top plays every day right here at this very website with your major credit card. If you prefer doing business with a liver person, ask for one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
Hopefully I’ve inspired you to go out and find the ideal “bet against” teams in both college and pro football. Get to work!