Submitted by Jim Hurley on Sunday, July 8, 2012 at 12:27 PM
Last week at this website you read about the early college football “Regular Season Win Totals” that had been posted at respected sites offshore. Las Vegas waited several days before putting its foot in the water. But, now Cantor Gaming has released its lines that are bettable at sportsbooks in Vegas.
Here are the numbers for the cream of the crop teams this season. Note that Cantor is using a 30-cent line. If either the Over or Under is favored at, say, -140, the underdog option would return +110. If the favorite was -160, the dog choice would bring back +130.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS
Southern Cal 10.5 (Under -135)
Alabama 10.5 (Under -165)
Oregon 10.5 (Under -165)
LSU 10.5 (Under -175)
Florida State 10.5 (Under -210)
Nobody is projected to go 12-0 this year. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. A sportsbook wants to post numbers that generate two-way action. If they were to post an 11 or 11.5, nobody would bet the Over in a 12-game season (remember that conference championship games and bowls don’t count on this proposition, only regularly scheduled regular season games). Southern Cal is the defacto market choice to win the championship this year, with the least vigorish on Under 10.5 wins. Their Pac 12 compatriot Oregon is in the top three. The two SEC teams who played for the title last year are in the top four. Looks like the market is once again expecting those two conferences to determine the BCS champ. The market is extremely skeptical that FSU will get to 11 wins…and it’s unlikely 10-2 is going to play for a title.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Oklahoma 9.5 (Over -190)
Boise State 9.5 (Under -120)
Virginia Tech 9.5 (Under -150)
Oklahoma is a strong favorite to reach at least 10 wins, which puts them into the title mix if they can reach at least 11 and win the Big 12. Even though Boise State and Virginia Tech rank among the best eight win totals at Cantor, they’re still underdogs to reach 10 victories…which makes them longshots to play for a championship.
A slew of teams you’ll be watching on TV all season are sitting at 8.5 projected wins, including several who the market says are pretty good sized favorites to make it to at least nine victories.
Ohio State 8.5 (Over -180)
Arkansas 8.5 (Over -170)
Texas 8.5 (Over -160)
West Virginia 8.5 (Over -160)
Wisconsin 8.5 (Over -160)
Michigan 8.5 (Over -160)
Michigan State 8.5 (Over -140)
Clemson 8.5 (Over -140)
Louisville 8.5 (Over -140)
South Carolina 8.5 (Over -130)
Nebraska 8.5 (Over -125)
TCU 8.5 (Under -145)
BYU 8.5 (Under -145)
Oklahoma State 8.5 (Under -160)
Nevada 8.5 (Under -160)
Notre Dame 8.5 (Under -175)
Note that Boise State at Michigan State and Alabama vs. Michigan highlight the first weekend of college action in about six weeks or so. Fans and Las Vegas wagerers will be treated to some very good games out of the gate. You can tell by those numbers that the regular season races in the Big 10 and Big 12 are going to be extremely intense as many top contenders appear evenly matched. Notre Dame is hoping to do better than 8.5 wins as they move back to relevancy in this sport. The market doesn’t seem to think this is going to be the year.
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Baseball returns Tuesday with the All-Star Game. Link up with your favorite Vegas legend for the Summer Classic. The regular season resumes with a full schedule on Friday. Be sure you remember to check the ads on the home page every day for big play blockbusters. Complete details on each industry legends’ slate are available on the “buy picks” pulldown. Hot handicappers are always waiting to hear from you!