Submitted by Jim Hurley on Sunday, October 27, 2013 at 7:00 PM
After watching backup caliber Mike Glennon flounder for Tampa Bay last Thursday…after watching utterly ill-prepared Josh Freeman struggle for Minnesota a week ago, NFL TV audiences will now be treated to Kellen Clemens of the St. Louis Rams trying to drive the field and score points against the great defense of the Seattle Seahawks.
What did we do to deserve this?!
Sam Bradford was lost for the season to a knee injury last week. Clemens is the only current option to try to keep the Rams on the fringes of the playoff picture. The franchise has been pursuing other options behind the scenes. But, when Tim Tebow…and then Brett Favre are the names being thrown around in the media…you know the outlook is pretty bleak!
Of course, Las Vegas pointspreads are supposed to be the equalizer. Even if St. Louis doesn’t have a realistic chance any more to be a team that matters in 2013…they’re still a team that could cover pointspreads for you if oddsmakers and the public overreact to the gloom and doom forecasts. Let’s crunch some numbers and see who the value team is most likely to be Monday Night on ESPN.
Won-Lost Records (opponents so far)
Seattle: 6-1 (at Carolina, SF, Jax, at Houston, at Indy, Tennessee at Arizona)
St. Louis: 3-4 (Arizona, at Atlanta, at Dallas, SF, Jax, at Houston, at Carolina)
The Rams were within arm’s reach of the .500 mark under Bradford. Though, the wins were over Arizona, Jacksonville, and a Houston team in meltdown mode. This was a team that needed to improve to truly be .500 caliber. Seattle started the season as a favorite to win the NFC. Nothing’s changed in that regard…though the team did disappoint on the road at Houston and Indianapolis. They needed a miracle to beat the Texans, and were beaten clean by the surprising Colts.
Yards-Per Play to Date
Seattle: 5.7 on offense, 4.5 on defense
St. Louis: 4.8 on offense, 5.9 on defense
Wow…a hidden DISASTER for the Rams who were a stunning -1.1 in differential in this stat. That’s horrible…and very clear evidence that they were more like a 5-11 or 4-12 type team even with Bradford. His injury hurts the offense and doesn’t help the defense…which means we’re looking at maybe 4.5 or worse offensively and a defense that could lose their will to compete very quickly. Seattle has Super Bowl caliber numbers to this point in this key indicator stat.
St. Louis: +3
Both teams are on the right side of zero in the risk/reward category. Seattle’s defense is aggressive about trying to force miscues…while Russell Wilson’s tendency to run out of trouble instead of throwing up desperation passes helps their percentages on offense. It’s reasonably safe to assume that the Rams will gradually fall back into the negatives with Clemens.
Seattle: 5-2 ATS
St. Louis: 2-5 ATS
Pretty amazing…even though the whole world new Seattle was going to be great…they’re still 5-2 against the spread! This is actually fairly common in Las Vegas. Oddsmakers and sharps often get to cute trying to fade great teams. The Rams have been a market disappointment, needless to say.
Current Line: Seattle by 12, total 42.5
Wow…HUGE number for a road favorite. That number means Seattle would be -15 on the road (similar to SF/Jacksonville Sunday in London), and -18 at home. Is that a fair assessment? We suggest you look through the performances this year of double digit underdogs before making a final decision in this game.
JIM HURLEY made his final decision late last week! He has a strong play in this one…which you can purchase right here at the website with your credit card. Be sure to also check out Game Five of the World Series with the Red Sox and Cards on St. Louis If you have any questions, talk to the NETWORK representative in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
Over the next few days here in the NOTEBOOK, we’ll get caught up in the World Series…get you ready for the new NBA season...preview Bengals/Dolphins in this week’s Thursday Nighter…and start the countdown for Florida State/Miami in the biggest college football game of the weekend.
Monday Night’s winner will help you finish off last week with a bang…while getting the new week started off in profitable fashion. DON’T MAKE A MOVE UNTIL YOU HEAR WHAT JIM HURLEY HAS TO SAY!