Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, October 22, 2013 at 7:00 PM
If you’ve been watching the national news the past couple of days, you know that much of the country is seeing a big drop in temperatures and an increase in wind. It’s going to be COLD in Boston for Games One and Two of the World Series. And, temperatures and game conditions this weekend will at least be cooler than players are used to this season across much of the college and pro football landscape.
That makes this the perfect time for my College of Advanced Sport Betting and Handicapping to review how to handicap weather dynamics. And…because the current forecasts are suggesting that WIND rather than precipitation will be a bigger story this weekend…I’m going to focus on what to do when forecasts are showing sustained winds of at least 10 mph at a college or pro football game.
FOCUS ON THE RUNNING GAME
It’s very tough for quarterbacks to throw accurately in stiff breezes or swirling winds. It’s less of a factor for very experienced strong-armed quarterbacks. How many of those are left? Teams who can run the ball with authority are in great shape in windy conditions because they’re barely affected at all…just as their opponents are struggling with conditions.
Run-based teams will still score their normal allotment of points. And, they’ll be able to take advantage of opponent’s turnovers that will invariably come. In the fourth quarter, they’ll be able to eat clock and sit on their leads. Be sure you spend some time over the next few days reviewing the rush offense and rush defense stats for all college and pro teams who will be playing outdoors in the Midwest or Northeast. If you’re pressed for time, at least determine who the worst rush defenses are! They’re going to be in trouble.
FADE THE PASS-HEAVY TEAMS
Here’s something you can do very quickly online. Go to any major statistical site, and compute the percentage of plays that each offense throws the ball. The teams on the high end of the spectrum are going to be in big trouble in any game conditions that inhibit their strength.
I’ve seen this happen countless times over the years. You may recall last season that Geno Smith of West Virginia was completely helpless trying to throw downfield in a windy game in Lubbock, Texas against Texas Tech. You know he has a strong arm. He couldn’t figure out how to harness that strength because he was so inexperienced in those kinds of conditions.
Plus, college football teams have fallen too much in love with up-tempo pass heavy offenses. Fade those who don’t have balance when they play in the wind.
INVEST IN THE BEST COACHES, FADE THE WORST COACHES
This is a hidden factor that Las Vegas oddsmakers always miss out on. Smart coaches know how to make the most of their advantages when the wind is at their backs…and how to minimize the damage when they have to play into the wind. Bad coaches barely adjust for the wind, and consistently pay the price.
This happens every year in sportsbooks. You’ll see bettors SCREAMING at their head coaches because of poor decisions in a wind-game. Don’t be somebody who screams at the TV. Be somebody who laughs at the TV because your guy is earning you 10-14 extra points while the opposing coach is costing his team at least a touchdown. I’m always reminding you to pay attention to coaching strengths and weaknesses. I can assure you that they will come into play in at least FIVE games this weekend. I’m already very confident I know which five those will be too.
If you’d like some help finding the right plays on the baseball and football boards during this very exciting and challenging sports weekend, you can purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your major credit card. My College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping is designed to help do-it-yourselfers pick more winners. If you’re not ready to go it alone, help is always just a few clicks away.
There’s also a number you can call if you prefer talking to a live person. Please ask for one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Remember to check on combination packages that feature the World Series and remaining football.
Best of luck to you this weekend. Back again early next week to get you ready for the start of the NBA season. Did you realize that the new campaign tips off Tuesday Night October 29?! Derrick Rose is back on the floor for Chicago. Dwight Howard is now playing in Houston. And, Kobe Bryant is still on the shelf as he tries to recover from a serious Achilles injury. There are always new opportunities to make money if you’re a hard worker who will keep his nose to the grindstone. I know you regulars have been doing just that since this web series started. Keep up the good work!