Submitted by Jim Hurley on Saturday, October 19, 2013 at 1:00 PM
MORE NFL WEEK 7 PREVIEWS AND THIS TRIO OF GAMES HAS A DISTINCT AFC FLAVOR TO ‘EM …
PLUS OUR MID-SEASON LOOK AT THE NFL POINTSPREAD STANDINGS
By Jim Hurley
Let’s just say that more than a few folks out there in NFL-land would have gone broke if they forecast the likes of Atlanta, Washington, Minnesota and the New York Giants would have combined for only three total SU (straight-up) wins while heading in this next-to-last weekend in October.
As one member of the 0-and-6 Giants told a media lad the other day, “We didn’t think we would be making our off-season plans in October”.
In other words, it sure looks like a play-out-the-season bit for the G-men, and you might well say the same for the aforementioned Falcons, Redskins and Vikings should any/all of ‘em not win their NFL Week 7 games.
In this weekend edition of Jim Sez, we’ll steer clear of these NFC ragamuffins and concentrate solely on three different AFC games … so here goes:
NEW ENGLAND (5-1) at NEW YORK JETS (3-3) – 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Heck, we must’ve read a thousand times this week how things could have been so different in the AFC East standings heading in here had the NY Jets beaten Pittsburgh last Sunday and New England not pulled out that late-game thriller against New Orleans, but here’s the Pats with a two-game divisional lead and already having won Round I against the Jets this year with a 13-10 triumph in a Thursday Night Week 2 bash.
No doubt that Patriots QB Tom Brady – who engineered that brilliant two-minute drive to beat the Saints 30-27 last week and who’s thrown a modest 8 TDs with 4 INTs this season with his new/patchwork receiving corps – will test a Jets secondary that allowed a 55-yard scoring strike by Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger last week (we’re talking to you, CB Antonio Cromartie!), and so let’s see what heat NYJ rookie DL Sheldon Richardson and mates can get on “The Golden Boy” here.
If Brady’s sacked less than a handful of times, the Pats win this one by more than a TD … you’ll see.
Spread Note – The NE Patriots have covered 14 of their last 22 head-to-head matchups (and four of the last five) against the J-E-T-S the past 10 years and note that includes a playoff split in 2006 and 2010.
HOUSTON (2-4) at KANSAS CITY (6-0) – 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
It is downright amazing that the defense and special teams of the KC Chiefs have accounted for nearly half the team’s 152 points (okay, it’s actually 46.1 percent of the team’s total points but who’s counting?), but what likely will determine whether or not Andy Reid’s club exits this Week 7 game without a SU loss is what Kansas City’s offense does with the turnovers created by its “D” here.
Keep in mind the visiting Houston Texans are a -12 in the all-important turnover differential category this season, and now here comes the Lone Star State team playing a rookie quarterback in former University of Houston stud Case Keenum … but can he really be any worse than either Matt Schaub or T.J. Yates here?
The Chiefs would like to take the wraps off QB Alex Smith a bit more after he completed just 14 passes a week ago in that 24-7 win/cover against Oakland – how about a few downfield shots to WRs Dwayne Bowe just to set the mood at Arrowhead?
Spread Notes – Kansas City’s covered its last four games in a row, and the Chiefs are tied with Dallas for the NFL’s best spread side so far this season (see Jim Sez chart below).
AFC SHOWDOWN SUNDAY! WIN EARLY - THEN WIN LATE
BALTIMORE (3-3) at PITTSBURGH (1-4) – 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Folks, you have to go all the way back to the 1999 season to find the last time that neither the Baltimore Ravens nor the Pittsburgh Steelers qualified for a post-season game, but right now you’d have to give it 50-50 (or better) odds that neither AFC North gang will get there come January.
The Ravens can’t get their ground game on-track these days as RB Ray Rice is averaging a career-low 2.8 yards a carry, while the Steelers have mucho problems (once again) along their offensive line, and note the aforementioned Roethlisberger already has been sacked 18 times (the Steelers’ defense, on the other hand, has registered just 7 sacks).
From a pure history viewpoint, note that 10 of the last 12 matchups between these teams have been decided by a touchdown or less, and that includes seven games decided by exactly 3 points.
Spread Note – The Steelers are 14-23-1 ATS overall since that last Super Bowl appearance at the end of the 2010 season, and that includes this year’s wobbly 1-4 spread start.
Your attention please …
My handicappers and bloggers have everything all scoped out and you can get all the NCAA Football and NFL Week 7 Winners when you check with us here at Jim Hurley’s Network at the toll-free # of 1-800-323-4453 or right here online at www.jimhurley.com.
Check with us on game days and remember we have MLB Post-Season winners too with action this weekend and remember the World Series begins this Wednesday night!
NFL POINTSPREAD STANDINGS –
(thru the games of Oct. 17)
NOTE: Lots more in the next edition of Jim Sez including a Monday Night Football Preview/Forecast – that’s the Minnesota Vikings at the New York Giants.