Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, October 16, 2013 at 2:58 PM
NFL, College Bettors Need To Pay Attention This Week To Injuries To Dozens Of Skill Players That Will Decide Outcome Of Games
By Kelso Sturgeon
One of the greatest fears I have as a handicapper is that my mind will grow so numb from studying all the details and numbers required to properly analyze games that I will miss the one single thing that will produce a winner on which to bet or a loser to bet against.
This fear is the one reason I begin handicapping the following week's games when the betting lines are posted mid-day every Sunday afternoon. I want to gather all the information I can on every single college and NFL game and have the time to think about it every day leading up to a game - and I do think about it and study every day.
When the numbers first go up on the board, I pick the 10-15 teams in the colleges and five or six in the NFL that I believe might be potential winners and then I look for reasons to not bet on them. An average of 50% of the originally group fall by the way-side, eliminated because the in-depth handicapping process showed they actually were not promising as presented. That includes both favorites and underdogs.
In the end, I am left with an average of six to seven college and an average of five NFL teams that still appear to have winning potential. That means I have eliminated from play about 90% of the games scheduled during any football week.
I am writing this explanation to answer an e-mail I received about when I begin each week's handicapping and why. Maybe it will help you a bit too in a world where nothing comes easy and handicapping takes time, and lots of it.
Is It Really In The Numbers?
Much of the handicapping process has to do with the numbers, but it is not always the numbers that tell the real story. For instance, the Boston Red Sox are up 2-1 in their best-of-seven American League pennant series to determine who gets to the World Series are hitting but .133 in the first three games. That is a record low for the first three games of all Championship Series ever.
Detroit won the first game 1-0.
Boston won the second game 6-5.
Boston won the third game 1-0.
It is nothing short of amazing a team hitting .133 is favored to get to the World Series.
Thursday Night's Football Betting Menu
50-Unit ACC Game Of Week Wins Thursday Night
Miami at North Carolina
Nationally-ranked Miami (5-0) faces its first major road test of the season when it meets North Carolina (1-4) in my 50-unit ACC Game of the Week - a game the betting line makes a dead-even affair. North Carolina has won four of the last six meetings between these teams and will get its starting quarterback, Bryn Renner, back for this one after he sat out last week's 27-17 loss at Virginia Tech with a foot injury. With all this said, there is hidden in the fine print three edges that are going to put one of these teams in the winner's circle and I invite you to win this one with me for just $50, or FREE when you sign up for my Locktoberfest Package that runs through Monday, Nov. 11th..
25 Unit NFL Play Gets The Cash Thursday Night
Seahawks at Cardinals
There is no doubt in my mind that (1) Seattle (5-1) should be about a touchdown favorite in this one, (2) that it is the best team and (3) that it should win, but as good as the Seahawks are they have not played as well on the road as they have at home this season and that definitely puts the pointspread into play in this one. Arizona (3-3) is going through a major transition under 1st-year coach Bruce Arians but, for certain, the Cardinals come to play and, like Seattle, are 4-2 ATS. The winner of this one is hidden in the details and I am confident I will again get the cash. Win this one for just $25.
Best Bets Club Goes For 3rd Straight Winning Total Thursday Night
My Best Bets Football Investment Club went 3-0 with over/under plays last week and is going for its 4th straight winning totals play tonight on the NFL game that finds the Seattle Seahawks (5-1) at the Arizona Cardinals. The numbers tell me where this one is going and I intend to cash another 15-unit over/under ticket on this one. Win with me again tonight for just $15, A Best Bets Club Play.
Last Week's 3-0 Totals
10/14...15 Units...Under 51 in Colts-Chargers (28 Points Scored) Win
10/13...5 Units...Under 41 in Raiders-Chiefs (33 Points Scored) Win
10/12...10 Units...Over 63.5 in Oregon St.-Wash. St. (76 Points Scored) Win
Friday, Oct. 18
Louisville Hosts UCF In 100-Unit AAC Conference Game Of Year On ESPN
This American Athletic Conference battle between Louisville (6-0) and Central Florida (4-1) brings together two of the best college football teams in the country (Louisville is ranked #1 in my Top 25 and Central Florida in the #22 spot) and I am so confident of the win I am releasing this as my 100-unit AAC Game of the Year. In many respects the entire season hangs in the balance in this true showdown battle, with the winner almost assured of winning the conference championship and getting the automatic BCS bowl bid that goes with it. Please join me to cash the big ticket on this one for just $50..
Kelso's College Football Top 25
Rankings, Records, Opponent This Week
1. Louisville (6-0) - Hosts #24 Central Florida (4-1) Friday
2.LSU (6-1) - At Ole Miss (3-3)
3. Oregon (6-0) - Hosts Washington State (4-3)
4.Florida State (5-0)--At #5 Clemson (6-0)
5. Clemson (6-0) - Hosts #4 Florida State (5-0)
6. Alabama (6-0) - Hosts Arkansas (3-4)
7.Georgia (4-2) - At Vanderbilt (3-3)
8.Missouri (6-0) - Hosts #13 Florida (4-2)
9.South Carolina (5-1) - At Tennessee (3-3)
10. Ohio State (6-0) - Hosts Iowa (4-2)
11. Miami (5-0) - At North Carolina (1-4)
12. Stanford (5-1) - Hosts #18 UCLA (5-0)
13. Florida (4-2) - At #8 Missouri
14. Wisconsin (4-2) - At Illinois (3-2)
15. Washington (4-2) - At Arizona State (4-2)
16. Michigan State (5-1) - Hosts Purdue (1-5)
17. Texas A&M (5-1) - At Auburn (5-1)
18. UCLA (5-0) - At #12 Stanford (5-1)
19. Virginia Tech (6-1) - Bye Week
20. Baylor (5-0) - Hosts Iowa State (1-4)
21. Nebraska (5-1) - Bye Week
22. Oregon State (5-1) - At California (1-5)
23. Notre Dame (4-2) - Hosts Southern California (4-2)
24. Central Florida (4-1) - At #1 Louisville (6-0)
25. Texas (4-2) - Bye Week