Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, October 16, 2013 at 2:00 PM
I mentioned in my video here at this website earlier in the week that I personally place a lot more weight on what I call a “negative bounce” in sports betting than I do a bounce from a positive performance. I wanted to use our coursework here today to expound on my thought process in that regard.
If you’re not familiar with the term, a “bounce” refers to a team in any sport that is likely to reverse an extreme performance from the previous week. If a team plays way below expectations, you’d expect them to bounce back from that and play very well. If a team plays way over its heads, you expect the bounce to bring them back to earth with a thud.
I do believe that both factors are real…and important for serious handicappers to study day-in and day-out in every sport they’re betting. Here’s why I believe asking good teams to bounce back from a bad game is the single most powerful bounce angle:
*I talk often to you about the importance of THE MOTIVATION FACTOR, and this is as close as you’re going to get to PEAK motivation for a team. Good teams are embarrassed after a loss. They want to make up for what happened. And, that doesn’t just mean winning outright. That means winning impressively.
*Good teams typically have good coaches who will not tolerate two bad games in a row. That means a focus on fundamentals and preparation will be intensified after it might have slacked off earlier. MOTIVATION is most often linked to effort. But, it also applies to focus. Good teams play with a purpose and execute very well after a loss. They fix what wasn’t working…AND come in fired up.
*Good teams will typically have an advantage in PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS over their next opponent in sports like college football and college basketball. That’s not true to the same degree at the pro level. But, even there…if you’re talking about “good” teams…then it’s an above-average team that may be facing an average or less opponent. You regulars know that the COMBINATION of GAMEBREAKERS and THE MOTIVATION FACTOR can create huge blowouts on the scoreboard. Oddsmakers just can’t match the likely reality with their number.
Now, let’s turn it around and look at it from the other direction. Why is a “fall back to earth” only mildly as strong?
*You may see a team lose a step or two off a great game. But, that’s not necessarily going to mean PEAK flatness. They don’t lose all interest in playing. They don’t lose the ability to focus and execute. A team bouncing forward off a bad game will take a HUGE leap in factors that matter a lot. A team bouncing off a good game will take baby steps back. That matters a lot when determining what percentage of your bankroll to invest in the factor.
*Good teams STILL have their edge in PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS the week after playing over their heads. Star athletes don’t just disappear unless injuries take them off the field. These teams will still probably play well, just not as well
Let me use report grades to illustrate:
*If a good team just played a D or an F game, they’re likely to bounce back with an A+
*If a good team just played an A+ game, they’ll fall back to a B, maybe a B-minus or a C
You want to bet with both fists when you anticipate that a good team is going to play at an A+ level. There are likely to win a blowout that will fly past the Vegas line. You don’t necessarily want to bet with both fists against a good team that’s going to be at B-minus. They may still make enough plays to barely cover their spread.
My video was emphasizing the bounce factor in college football for this week (and, you can still watch that here at the website). But, the theme itself works year round for all sports. Many of you are printing these out reports each week to create a textbook you can use for years to come. The bounce theory has been around for decades…BECAUSE IT WORKS! It will be around for as long as you’re referring to your College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping textbook. Use it for college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and even Major League Baseball with elite teams. I understand that our international readership continues to grow since the internet is global. This works just as well in the showcase soccer leagues in Europe.
If you’d like some help finding the best plays on the board this weekend and through the rest of October in college football, pro football, and the baseball playoffs, look for game day BEST BETS and seasonal offers right here at the website. All can be purchased with your major credit card. Additional help is available in the Vegas-Sports-masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
Our next discussion will be early next week. Thanks again for all the hard work you’ve been doing. The Dean of Sports Handicapping appreciates your class attendance and effort!