Submitted by Jim Hurley on Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 7:00 PM
Last season, the Washington Redskins won the NFC East. Their opponent Sunday Night on NBC…the Dallas Cowboys, weren’t eliminated from playoff contention until their final game of the season (at the hands of these very Redskins!). One month into the 2013 season, neither team has a winning record…and they’re only playoff contenders because they’re playing in a horrible division!
Sunday Night’s winner will be back at the .500 mark, well positioned to make a run for the postseason amidst a cluster that includes inconsistent Philadelphia and the NY Giants debacle. The loser will virtually be out of the Wildcard race already…and will need to hope that a record as bad as 8-8 ultimately wins the division.
Let’s run some numbers for this classic rivalry game that all of you will be watching on TV…
Won-Lost Records (opponents so far)
Washington: 1-3 (Philadelphia, Detroit, at Green Bay, at Oakland)
Dallas: 2-3 (NYG, at KC, St. Louis, at SD, Denver)
Washington’s only win came against a Raiders team that had to use their backup quarterback. And, the Raiders cut that backup quarterback soon after! The teams has been awful this year because the defense can’t stop good teams and RGIII is still hobbled from last year’s knee injury. He proclaimed himself at 100% when he was maybe 40% at best. His movement has been improving. Maybe the bye week helped him recover a bit more.
Dallas was extremely impressive last week against Denver in a game they could very easily have won. The week before, they lost to a San Diego team that subsequently lost to Oakland. When Tony Romo is on, this team really can play with anybody. That generally happens once or twice a month at most, which is why the team has struggled to reach the postseason in recent years.
Washington: 5.9 on offense, 6.3 on defense
Dallas: 6.2 on offense, 6.1 on defense
Both defenses have been easy to move the ball against. That suggests a possible shootout if RGIII is close to getting his legs back. If he’s not…then it suggests a potential Dallas runaway. You saw last week what this unit can do against a soft defense! It’s a good sign for Dallas fans that they have a positive differential in this stat against the current schedule. It hasn’t been a creampuff slate by any means. Washington’s main problem is that they’re allowing big yardage when the game is on the line…but not gaining their own yardage until extended garbage time when opponents relax. They’ve really been worse than -0.4 would suggest.
An angel loses its wings whenever Tony Romo throws an interception. You can hear the groans from Cowboys fans echoing through the hills. But, they’re actually +3 in turnover differential this season…which is a good sign going forward. The offense has largely managed to control risk to this point. Washington is just kind of there…which is actually a positive in the big picture because so many other categories for them are negative.
Washington: 1-3 ATS
Dallas: 4-1 ATS
Wait a second…you’ve been able to make money betting ON “America’s Team?!” The market has generally underestimated Dallas…particularly in their blowout of St. Louis and last week’s near-upset of Denver. Washington has been a money-burner, and has yet to cover against a first-team quarterback.
Current Line: Dallas by 5.5, total 53.5
An opener of -3 shows you that oddsmakers still hadn’t noticed how badly they had been analyzing these teams. They saw the Redskins and Cowboys as even on a neutral field! Sharps hit Dallas hard at the lower numbers…even though the Pokes might potentially be low on fuel after last week’s Denver shootout…and even though Washington had a bye last week.
What should you bet at the game day line given all the factors that are in play? Does the Over deserve your attention because of those poor defensive numbers? JIM HURLEY knows how important the Sunday Night game is to your bankroll. He’ll have the best option for you as part of his Sunday slate. You can purchase that right here at the website with your credit card. Or, you can call the office before the early games kick off at 1-888-777-4155.
We’ll see you tomorrow in the NOTEBOOK to run these same category numbers for Indianapolis at San Diego on Monday Night Football. Then it’s back to the baseball playoffs Tuesday and Wednesday. BIG MONTH…BIG GAMES…BIG MONEY from JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!