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Submitted by Jim Hurley on Sunday, October 6, 2013 at 8:00 PM

So far in his short NFL career, Geno Smith is 2-0 straight up and ATS at home, including an electric performance vs. the Buffalo Bills that wasn’t fully captured in the 27-20 final score…but is 0-2 straight up on the road with dismal passing performances in New England and Tennessee.

Monday Night, the Jets visit the Atlanta Falcons. That’s both good news and bad news.

*The Good News: the game will be played indoors on a fast track, which gives Smith a chance to show off his arm strength.

*More Good News: Atlanta’s defense has been soft this year.

*The Bad News: Atlanta is fired up in a home game after a home loss, that’s also a must-win situation for a defending #1 seed that’s off to a 1-3 start.

*More Bad News: Geno Smith is short on quality receivers because of injuries!

JIM HURLEY knows up front that this result will be determined by what Smith can do when passing the ball. His SOURCES and SCOUTS have been focused on that issue all weekend long, and will continue to provide updates from Atlanta right up until the time a selection is posted for NETWORK clients. Let’s run the numbers to see why receiver health is so important in this pointspread scenario.

 

Won-Lost Records (opponents so far)

NY Jets: 2-2 (Tampa Bay, at New England, Buffalo, at Tennessee)

Atlanta: 1-3 (at New Orleans, St. Louis, at Miami, New England)

The Jets may have the better record, but they’ve obviously played a much easier schedule. Tampa Bay has been a disaster this year…and Buffalo has been very shaky on the road. Atlanta, on the other hand, has played two potential bye teams already in New Orleans and New England, while also facing a strong Wildcard possibility in Miami. The market knows Atlanta is the better team regardless of what the standings are currently showing.

 

Yards-Per Play to Date

NY Jets: 5.3 on offense, 4.3 on defense

Atlanta: 5.3 on offense, 6.1 on defense

Whoa….THAT’S amazing! The Jets are a full 1.0 better than break-even in ypp differential. Atlanta is actually almost that far BELOW break even. If you adjust for schedules…you still get the Jets as a positive team, and the Falcons as either a negative team or something close to even. Why aren’t the Jets taking the league by storm?

 

Turnover Differential

NY Jets: -10

Atlanta: -1

That’s why! Rookie quarterbacks make a lot of mistakes. That fantastic ypp differential is being trumped by a truly horrible turnover differential. And, THAT brings us back again to the Jets receiving corps. If Geno Smith can find open men downfield, they might actually win this game without needing all of those points. If we just see more interceptions, and fumbles off sacks, then it’s going to get ugly.

 

Market Performance

NY Jets: 3-1 ATS

Atlanta: 1-3 ATS

The Jets have been 75% against the number so far because Smith has been better than expected and because the DEFENSE is once again playing to its past standards of excellence. Atlanta’s been falling back to earth while dealing with the bad luck of drawing a tough early schedule.

 

Current Line: Atlanta by 10, total 44

 

The market is assuming the worst for the Jets offensively based on that high line. You’ve seen what the numbers say. Atlanta by 10 is ONLY justified if the Jets are going to have trouble in the turnover category or are just completely unable to move the ball downfield because of injuries. So, that’s why JIM HURLEY is emphasizing INFORMATION for his official play here. If you know what’s going to happen with the Jets passing attack, the game picks itself!

You can purchase the final word for Monday right here at the website with your credit card all day before kickoff. If you have any questions, talk to the NETWORK representative in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Don’t forget to ask about the rest of the MLB postseason when you call. Great combination packages are available.

Back with you in the NOTEBOOK Tuesday and Wednesday to get caught up in those baseball playoffs. Big game football previews resume Thursday with the NY Giants/Chicago Bears game on the NFL Network

Whether you’re pressing up from a great weekend…or bailing out because your own picks didn’t go so well...Monday is the most important betting night of the week in Las Vegas. Don’t you dare make a move UNTIL YOU HEAR WHAT JIM HURLEY HAS TO SAY!

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