Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, October 3, 2013 at 3:00 PM
Now that October has arrived, it’s important to review the specific keys that come into play when handicapping conference action in college football. The bulk of matchups you study this weekend, and for the rest of the regular season will involve conference foes going head to head.
It goes without saying in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping that we focus on PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS in each matchup, as well as THE MOTIVATION FACTOR. You regulars already know all about those. If you’re new to reading this feature, please be sure you take time to isolate the true PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS on each team while also trying to determine who’s most motivated to win any particularly matchup. Then, add in these keys…
COACHING HISTORIES IN CONFERENCE ACTION
There are coaches every year who create illusions in non-conference action before being exposed in league play. The market makes the same mistakes every year because bettors are so focused on what just happened recently rather than what’s happened over the years. YOU need to know what’s happened over the years. Review straight up and ATS performances in conference action ONLY for all the major board coaches. This won’t take you as long as you think because there are so many new head coaches all over the landscape.
KEEP REVENGE IN PROPER CONTEXT
It’s very easy to overrate revenge in college football. I’ve been on record for a very long time (and I mean, VERY long!) that you should only bet on teams who are capable of extracting revenge. Bad teams with revenge are still bad teams, and don’t deserve any investments from you. Be on the lookout for any superior team that has revenge from last season, particularly if was an embarrassing loss that the players want to atone for. I’m confident in saying that revenge won’t actually be much of a factor in 90% of the conference games where it technically applies. Finding the right 10% can make you a lot of money.
ANTICIPATE EBB AND FLOW
College athletes are incapable of playing at the exact same level week after week during conference play. This is why there are so many upsets. A top contender will have a flat week just as an also-ran gets fired up…and you see a shocker that rattles the rankings. I’m continually amazed by how many “stathead” types never realize this and just keep assuming everyone will play their “average” game week after week. That’s not how football works. Be wary of, or bet against teams who played all-out conference wars the prior week. Look to make your biggest bets on quality teams who are coming off a flat performance. If you haven’t already done so, go through each team’s remaining schedule right now and isolate the most obvious candidates for peak intensity and flat spots. Conference performance in college football is not a straight line. It’s a yo-yo.
DON’T OVERLOOK THE MID-MAJORS
We’re at a point now where college football lines will be fairly solid in games involving the teams who are on TV all the time. You can still win some of those…but you’re getting less line value. Because oddsmakers and the public are so focused on the SEC, the Pac 12, and the Big 10, YOU need to make sure you’re devoting a lot of energy to the Mountain West, Conference USA, the MAC, and the Sun Belt. My longterm customers can vouch for this…many of my BLOCKBUSTER WINNERS every year come in the mid majors when:
*I have a huge advantage in PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS
*My team is positioned for a peak effort (possibly because of revenge)
*The opponent is positioned for a flat effort
*I have a coach who loves to run up the score
You find combinations like that in the mid majors, and there’s literally nothing oddsmakers can do to keep you from cashing your ticket.
Please keep those issues in mind as you handicap this weekend’s card and the rest of the season. If you’d like assistance in college football games set for Thursday Night, Friday Night, and all day Saturday, you can purchase my BEST BETS right here at this very website with your major credit card. Don’t forget to check out daily baseball playoff action and the NFL too. Questions? They can be answered by one of my representatives at the Vegas-Sports-masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
Our next gathering in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping will be early next week. I like to read and react to major developments as they happen. So, the topic at that time could be college football, pro football, or an update to the baseball playoff report that ran a few days ago. Be sure you’re printing all of the coursework out each week so you can create a virtual textbook that can be used for years to come. It’s a great time of year to be a Las Vegas sports bettor because the daily schedules are loaded with profitable options. Go find the winners!