Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Saturday, September 28, 2013 at 4:00 PM
I’ve been struck by how quickly the Tampa Bay Bucs are imploding this season in the NFL. There’s a lot of blame to go around. And, it’s at least possible that switching to Mike Glennon at quarterback will get things moving in the right direction because Josh Freeman was a “poison” who caused the whole offense to underachieve.
On the other hand:
*Glennon is a rookie who was extremely mistake-prone at the college level whenever he played good defenses. He looks like an NFL quarterback…and he must play great in practice based on what his coaches have always said about him through his career. But, when under a pass rush, he’s the kind of player who’s currently more likely to hurt you than to help you.
*Head coach Greg Schiano has a track record of mediocrity wherever he’s been. He talked the talk at Rutgers, but was consistently outclassed in big TV games whenever ESPN tried to hype the program as “the Michigan of New Jersey.” I’ve already talked about how it was far from certain that the very successful Chip Kelly was going to make his college approach from Oregon work at the pro level. Schiano didn’t even have an approach. He just impressed the right owner in an interview to become a surprise hire.
*Schiano is far from a “player’s coach.” In fact, reports suggest he’s the opposite. Players hate playing for him! He’s consistently negative, not a good tactician, and somebody who players are likely to quit on when the going gets tough. Some believe that this is what happened with Josh Freeman. Time will tell on that account, depending on what Freeman does if he gets a chance with another team.
Generally speaking, I want you to focus on PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS when handicapping the NFL, as well as THE MOTIVATION FACTOR. Most of the time, winners and losers will be determined by those elements. In the case of Tampa Bay, we may soon be dealing with an extreme case of “the lack of motivation” factor!
If Glennon struggles (or self-destructs), the players could throw in the towel on the rest of 2013. This just isn’t a love-fest at the moment based on what I’ve been hearing. Handicappers and sports bettors must be very open to the possibility that Tampa Bay is about to fall off the map in the Power Ratings…sinking down to Oakland/Jacksonville type levels.
On the other hand, there is still talent here. We’re talking about a team that should have won their season opener against the Jets…and could easily have won their home opener against New Orleans. Were Schiano to be fired and replaced by a coordinator the players like…we suddenly have a darkhorse that could get some things done moving forward. Tampa Bay has a bye next week, after hosting Arizona this week. The right changes at the right time could turn the Bucs into a value side after their bye.
I’ll be watching that Arizona/Tampa Bay game very closely this weekend. I may or may not have an official selection there. You’ll have to sign up for service to find out! But I believe what happens with the franchise over the next few weeks will shape the remaining months of the season…and I believe that oddsmakers are going to have a very difficult time properly pricing whatever happens. Oddsmakers are struggling to get veteran teams and veteran coaches priced properly right now! Tampa Bay is going to give them headaches.
The lesson, in my view, for those of you studying in my College of Advanced Handicapping and Sports Betting is that you have to keep your eyes open for implosion situations in all sports. You can make a lot of money by repeatedly fading bad teams who aren’t motivated to try their hardest. We just saw that for several weeks with a few Major League Baseball teams. There are 4-5 nominees for a similar story in the NFL…and possibly 15-20 amongst the dregs of college football. The preseason NBA coverage is all about how many teams might tank the coming campaign for a shot at #1 in the draft lottery.
I can assure you that The Dean of Sports Handicapping is always trying his hardest to find winners for his clients! You can purchase my top releases right here at this very website with your major credit card. If you have any questions, please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
See you again next week for more coursework and discussion. I greatly appreciate that so many of you are working so hard to improve your personal handicapping and sports betting performances. Let’s go make some money this weekend!