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Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, September 24, 2013 at 1:00 PM

Kelso’s Advanced Sports Betting: Major Changes in the NFL

In the video that I posted Monday at this website, I talked about many of the major changes going on right now in the NFL. Let’s talk some more about that in today’s article. It is truly a time of turmoil in professional football with several teams who were supposed to be pretty good (or very good) stumbling out of the gate, while a handful of teams who started the season off the radar find themselves in first place in their divisions.


Because our coursework here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping is about giving YOU the tools to solve mysteries as they present themselves, I wanted to talk today about the key factors you should be studying as you try to pin down what’s real and what’s an illusion in the NFL this season. I’d prefer not to talk specifically about which teams are truly “legit” at the moment, because that might telegraph this weekend’s NFL selections. It’s not fair to my paying clients to do something like that. But, I can point to some categories that will help you make important discoveries for yourself.


OFFENSIVE LINE PLAY

I talked about this some in my video, specifically about the horrible job being done this year by the NY Giants at the point of attack. Handicappers who devote a few hours TODAY to analyzing offensive line play through three games of NFL action will be very well-positioned in my view to pick winners this weekend and beyond. Look at these specific elements on a team-by-team basis:

  • Sacks Allowed

  • Rushing Yards-per-Carry

  • Rushing Touchdowns

  • Incomplete Passes Thrown

  • Offensive Penalties (the bulk of which are committed by linemen)

From this point forward, if you bet good money on a team that can’t protect its quarterback, you deserve the losses that are coming to you! Be smart and bet against the teams who are struggling on the line.

 

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TEAM DEFENSE

The mainstream media tends to focus too much on quarterbacks. That’s who fans pay the most attention to. This obsession (partially fueled by fans who spend too much time worrying about Fantasy Football), leads to a big blind spot when it comes to DEFENSE. You just can’t bet on teams with soft defenses. You’re not getting value no matter how many points you imagine your team is going to score. Spend some time today with these stat categories:

  • Yards-Allowed-Per-Play

  • Yards-Allowed-Per-Pass Attempt

  • Third Down Conversions Allowed

  • Sacks

  • Takeaways

You will quickly gain a sense of defensive profiles for each team. Focus your betting strategies on taking the top defenses, and fading the worst defenses.


NEW COACHES VS. STALE COACHES

One thing that struck me as I was thinking about the disappointments this year is how many struggling teams are being led by “stale” coaches. I’ve talked about the New York Giants already, so I can include them here. Tom Coughlin got a lot accomplished with this franchise. The players don’t seem to be responding with any sense of urgency right now though. I talked about Houston in that video. The Texans are 0-3 ATS even with a 2-1 record. They’re lucky not to be 0-3 straight up given the flatness of their efforts.


Refresh your memories about which teams have first-year or second-year head coaches, then note how many of those teams are playing with enthusiasm right now. Look at all the straight up and pointspread disappointments, and marvel at how many have coaches who have been there a long time.


I’ve been handicapping all the major betting sports for longer than many of you have been alive. In ALL SPORTS, seeing major changes is often just a matter of “fresh” catching “stale” flat-footed. I think that’s an important part of this surprising September story.


Those THREE KEYS…offensive line play…team defense…and coaching freshness are at the heart, in my personal opinioni, of the major changes we’re seeing right now in the NFL. Get up to speed with those, and you’ll be well-positioned to make good money going forward.


I’ll be back with you later this week with another class meeting here in our College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping. If you’d like some help picking winners, you can purchase my game day best bets here at this very website with your major credit card. We build our bankrolls with baseball midweek, then attack the board hard when football resumes on Thursday. Questions can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the office at 1-800-755-2255.

The Dean of Sports Handicapping has seen it all! I’ll do my best to teach you what I know on these pages throughout the year. I hope you’ve been printing out every article so you can build a virtual textbook you can refer to for years to come. Thanks again for your hard work. I’m looking forward to our next get-together.

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