Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 7:00 PM
The first week of college football is in the books. Now it’s time to gear up for the start of the NFL regular season. I’ve put together some tips today that should help you get ready for the new season. I can’t talk specifically about individual teams, because I have to protect my selections for paying clients. Let’s focus on general themes that should guide students of my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping in the right direction.
*REALIZE THERE ARE MANY “GO AGAINST” TEAMS
This year in particular, there are several teams who could end up battling for “worst in the league” honors. I don’t recall ever seeing it quite this bad…and I’m a man who loves loading up big betting units against bad teams. I can assure you I’ll be doing that this weekend and through the first month.
You’ll want to be fading:
*New starting quarterbacks
*Desperation starting quarterbacks
*Veteran quarterbacks who are proven failures
Perhaps a couple of those guys will cover spreads during opening week. But, they’re going to lose a lot more than they’ll win…which puts the percentages in your favor. Oddsmakers tend to stay conservative with early season lines. That means REALLY bad teams aren’t properly priced for about a month. I strongly believe we’re seeing some Week One numbers that will look like a joke in about a month.
The most compelling story about early season pro football action in the 2013 season could well be the sheer volume of bad teams in the NFL. It’s going to loom over the league like a dark cloud. Smart bettors must be ready to take advantage right out of the gate.
*KNOW YOUR PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS
I’m always encouraging this. It’s time to put it to best use. Most key offensive impact players are at full health right now. Offensive coordinators have had plenty of time to prepare for their season openers. You’re unlikely to find good teams who are “flat” for their season openers. Nobody’s in a letdown spot. Nobody’s in a sandwich spot because this is the first piece of bread!
Edges will lead to pointspread BLOWOUTS
Talented teams facing each other will lead to OVERS
Untalented teams facing each other will lead to UNDERS
You have time this week to do a report card at every offensive position. You should know for every game who’s going to win the quarterback battle, the receiving battle, and the running back battle. History has made it very clear that oddsmakers just can’t properly capture the Week One mismatches that are created at those positions.
*BET EARLY IF YOU CAN
This is a week where many of the “public” sides are actually going to be smart plays. You saw that in college football this past weekend. Some high profile favorites were still ridiculously underpriced. If you get a grading on a favorite who’s a likely playoff contender…waiting until game day is probably going to hurt your price. Get in quickly if you get a projected rout. The points won’t matter if you’re right. If you’re a bit unlucky, you might still get a close win or push by betting now rather than Sunday morning. Though, if you get a grading on an underdog…it’s probably okay to wait until Sunday because public betting action will get you an extra point or two.
I had a great opening week in college football. I fully intend to do that in the NFL this week as well…after piling up even more money in the colleges Saturday. You can purchase my top plays right here at the website with your major credit card if you believe you haven’t quite cracked the code as a do-it-yourself handicapper.
I have a late-week get-together scheduled for us in a few days…and we’ll talk some more about pro football betting and handicapping at that time. All that hard work you did this summer should already be paying off. I’m certain it will DEFINITELY pay off in this first full weekend of both college and pro action. The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance in the College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping!