Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 5:00 PM
College football is finally here, as the season officially gets under way Thursday Night with eight games on the regular board and nine additional games involving board teams who are playing smaller programs. Most everyone you’re listening to and reading this week is talking about the main board and the games you’ll be watching on TV. The Dean of Sports Handicapping is here to tell you that it’s very important to closely monitor what happens in those ugly games that everyone else is ignoring.
I know you could care less about South Alabama/Southern Utah or Tulane/Jackson State on Thursday Night; Army/Morgan State on Friday Night; or Eastern Michigan/Howard on Saturday. I’m not asking you to care about them. I’m asking you to monitor the flow of those games and read the boxscores afterward. Based on what’s happened the past several seasons, I can assure you with complete confidence that I will have 100-star and 200-star selections FADING some of those ugly board teams in the coming weeks.
What I learn when a bad board team STRUGGLES WITH or LOSES TO a non-entity will provide important information about how they will get crushed by any bullying favorites they run into during September or once conference play begins. You regulars know that I’ve had a fantastic run of monster blowouts on my major releases since you’ve been visiting this website. Knowing PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS along with THE MOTIVATION FACTOR is part of the equation. But, knowing which bad teams are going to get FLATTENED by motivated, talented teams by bigger scores than oddsmakers anticipate is also a vital part of the formula.
Here’s what I want students of my Advanced College of Sports Betting and Handicapping to be looking at this weekend:
*What happened in the first half of the “added” ugly games when it was “starter vs. starter?” Which lesser known teams were basically no better than a small college football team in the first 30 minutes?
*Did the defense struggle against the run? Typically, my blowout selections down the road will come against bad teams that have specific defensive weaknesses that will be exploited by PLAYMAKERS. You need to find out which defenses will get bullied by big offensive lines and great running backs.
*Did the defense struggle against the pass? Same deal here. If a team has a soft pass defense in Week One against a nobody…what’s going to happen when they face a real team with a star quarterback and multiple receiving threats? They’re going to lose 62-10 against a spread of 35 points.
*Did the quarterback have poor passing stats? Any quarterback who can’t move the ball and put points on the board against a small college cupcake is going to be in big trouble when he steps up in class. Look at the number of incomplete passes, and the number of interceptions. One of your main focuses this weekend should be evaluating the starting quarterbacks for every single board team, no matter who their opponent is.
I want to emphasize a point here. We’re looking for NEGATIVES that we’re going to be exploiting in the future. Be sure you don’t get hung up on any positives! When scoreboard watching and studying boxscores, you will see some ugly teams who put up impressive numbers. Ignore them. Doesn’t mean anything. BAD stats and performances in games like this are red flags are how truly horrible things are going to get later in the season. Good numbers may be a tease that can cost you money later. I don’t care if Western Something played well against Nobody State. They were supposed to! If Western Something struggled with Nobody State, then we’ve found a relatively hidden edge that we can take advantage of.
*Oddsmakers don’t pay enough attention to these games
*The public pays NO attention to these games
*Sharp handicappers DO pay attention…and the goal of my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping is to turn you into a sharp bettor
I appreciate all the homework you’ve been doing through the summer. Bring that work ethic to the regular season, and your won-lost record will skyrocket compared to past seasons.
If you’d like some help finding the best college plays on the board this weekend, daily selections and seasonal packages can be purchased here at this very website with your major credit card. That’s always a backup plan for you if you decide that winning on your own is too difficult a task at the moment.
I’ll be back early next week as we go full steam ahead into the regular seasons of the NFL and college football. I’ll read and react to developing stories on the fly if I believe they’ll help your handicapping process. You can count on important tips and strategies on these pages through the college bowls and NFL playoffs (with some baseball mixed in come playoff time). Thanks again for your continued attendance and devotion to the coursework!