Submitted by Jim Hurley on Friday, August 23, 2013 at 7:00 AM
The Green Bay Packers represent what “had” been working best in the NFL in recent seasons. Let your superstar quarterback abuse opposing defenses with his arm. Dare your opponents to keep up! Green Bay made it to the Super Bowl that way. New Orleans won a Super Bowl that way. Much of the New England Patriots dynasty is based on that principal (though the BEST years of the Pats also featured a good defense and some running options).
The Seattle Seahawks represent what is NOW working best in the NFL. Seattle and San Francisco kind of took over the NFC late last season with a combination of great defense and safe, productive offenses that moved the ball without turning it over because running quarterbacks threw fewer interceptions. Seattle had the best final month of anyone in football, but had to try and win on the road in the postseason as a Wildcard. (SF did win on the road in Atlanta before falling in the Super Bowl).
Friday Night, the Seahawks and Packers square off in an NFL dress rehearsal game that could ultimately be a playoff preview…and could be our first national TV look in 2013 at how these two diverse styles may be passing in the night.
Be sure you watch!
Let’s run this big game through our key indicator numbers…
Seattle: 11-5, +13 turnovers, #5 ranked schedule
Green Bay: 11-5, +7 turnovers, #9 ranked schedule
Both teams had the same record, though Seattle played a slightly tougher schedule. Each had to open on the road in the playoffs. Seattle won at Washington before losing in Atlanta. Green Bay lost at San Francisco. You can see that, at least last year, Seattle’s offensive style and intense defense created a superior turnover differential. Normally you’d expect a rookie quarterback to have more trouble in the risk/reward area than a veteran.
Seattle: 5.8 on offense, 5.1 on defense
Green Bay: 5.5 on offense, 5.2 on defense
How about that! Seattle was better on both sides of the ball on a per-play basis. And, they made more yards offensively per play even with a rookie quarterback while facing a tougher schedule. This is why sharps in Las Vegas showed such respect for this team late last season (and so far in the Preseason!). We don’t mean to suggest Aaron Rodgers is chopped liver! But…the public tends to overbet on big name quarterbacks who put up great stats. Sharps tend to bet aggressively on balanced teams that play great defense. Keep that in mind as you start the new season.
Third Down Conversions
Seattle: 40% on offense, 38% on defense
Green Bay: 42% on offense, 38% on defense
Here’s where some of the veteran moxie of Rodgers shows up. He was slightly better at moving the chains. We should probably mention that Green Bay grades out better than its reputation in our key numbers today. In both yards-per-play and third downs…they were virtually identical to the Seahawks. That’s a great compliment based on how well Seattle defended last year.
What a game!
JIM HURLEY is looking over this one closely to find the best option, as well as Friday’s other game matching the Chicago Bears and Oakland Raiders. Obviously the starters won’t be playing the whole way in either matchup….so having great INFORMATION about the backups and coaching priorities will also come into play.
You can always purchase game day BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call us in the office during normal business hours at 1-800-323-4453. Act quickly, so you can get big releases on the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday cards. You can pay for a seasonal package with this weekend’s winnings!
Back with you tomorrow to run our indicator stats in the St. Louis/Denver game that will also be nationally televised by CBS. On Sunday, we’ll look at the prime time game involving playoff teams Minnesota and San Francisco that will be nationally televised by NBC. Don’t forget that college football starts THURSDAY (less than a week away!). We’ll have big game previews next week in North Carolina/South Carolina on Thursday, Texas Tech/SMU on Friday, and Georgia/Clemson Saturday.
Stick with us in the NOTEBOOK every day so you know what’s really going on in the world of sports. And, hook up with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK for BIG, JUICY WINNERS!