Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, August 9, 2013 at 9:00 AM
It’s become very clear to me through my NFL Preseason research that Advanced Sports Bettors and Handicappers must be prepared to anticipate the nuances of two important evolutionary themes that are happening right before our very eyes in pro football.
*PACE, PACE, PACE!
If I’ve heard the word once, I’ve heard it a thousand times so far from head coaches across the league. Every coach wants his offense to player faster. They want to get to the line quickly to limit defensive substitutions and rest breaks. They want to throw quick hitters across the middle so that everyone can get lined back up quickly. Keep the defense on its heels! Every coach talks about it.
This has vital importance in the Preseason because a faster pace is going to influence both team sides and totals. If BOTH teams in a game are trying to increase their pace this year…then that game is likely to fly Over its Vegas total. If one team is working on pace, while the other is saving that for the regular season because their veterans have already mastered it under fire…then the first team could be a great bet at a cheap price. You always want a team that’s trying to make something happen NOW in August over an opponent that’s not going to go at peak intensity until September.
I want to emphasize this again. Coaches aren’t emphasizing balance. Coaches aren’t emphasizing mixing up their play calling. Coaches aren’t emphasizing finding deep threats who can get behind a secondary. Coaches are emphasizing PACE! And, some teams are also emphasizing my next point.
*QUARTERBACKS WHO CAN RUN
First, rookie Robert Griffin III had a fantastic rookie season even though he was kept under wraps in a relatively conservative offense. (I can assure you this surprised MANY sharp bettors out here in Las Vegas who were certain RGIII was going to be a colossal flop). Then, Colin Kaerpenick took over the San Francisco 49ers offense midway through the season and led it all the way to the Super Bowl. (Sharps were less surprised about this, as they invested heavily in Kaepernick and Russell Wilson of Seattle down the stretch).
Now you have the Buffalo Bills talking about turning over their offense to rookie E. J. Manuel from Florida State. The New York Jets may do the same thing with Geno Smith of West Virginia. Philadelphia is hoping Michael Vick still has the legs to do what Oregon quarterbacks did under Chip Kelly at the college level.
While it’s true that RGIII and Kaepernick were dramatic success stories last year, and that Vick was a phenom once up on a time, I’m skeptical that there are a lot of young men who can make that style of offense work in the NFL for an extended period. Anyone remember Kordell Stewart? Defenses will adjust. And, the one thing that’s certain for running quarterbacks is that they will eventually run into a serious injury. That happened to Vick. It happened to Donovan McNabb. RGIII couldn’t make it healthy though one season even though he was kept on a tight leash.
Advanced Sports Bettors and Handicappers must keep a sharp eye out for where this is likely to work, and where it’s NOT likely to work. Will faster paces lead to sharper performances, or more mistakes when offenses can’t handle what their own coaching is asking of them? Will the newest generation of running quarterbacks match Kaepernick and RGIII, or struggle badly because only a handful of true superstars can even try to make something like that work? You will win…and win BIG if you can answer those questions before oddsmakers figure out what’s going on.
I wanted to mention this early in the process…because I’ve been so overwhelmed by these themes in my own Preseason preparation. The NFL is always changing. Coaches are making it very clear during training camp discussions with the media explaining how the league is most likely to change this season.
I’m so excited that football is back on the Las Vegas betting schedule. I’m sure you are too. If you’d like some help finding game day winners, you can purchase my top plays right here at this very website with your major credit card. I also have great rates for the full college and pro seasons.
Best of luck to you this weekend. Even if you’re not placing Las Vegas bets yet, you should be watching as many games as possible on live TV or on tape delay on the NFL Network. Many of the teams I mentioned today play Friday Night. The Bills experiment with E.J. Manuel begins Sunday in Indianapolis. As you’ve learned over the years here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping, the more work you do…the more money you make!
The Dean of Sports Handicapping will see you again early next week for our next class. I’ve evolved as a handicapper the way the NFL continues to evolve. YOU must be prepared to do so as well!