Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, July 20, 2012 at 1:13 PM
You’ve probably heard by now that I won by fifth straight major release Thursday with the Tampa Bay Rays beating the Cleveland Indians 6-0. Reviewing the selections during this string will help you see some of the baseball fundamentals of Advanced Handicapping at work.
Here’s a brief listing of this monster stretch…
Sunday: CWS (-165) beat Kansas City 2-1
Monday: Detroit (-120) beat the LA Angels 8-6
Tuesday: Philadelphia (-160) beat the LA Dodgers 3-2
Wednesday: Pittsburgh (-120) beat Colorado 9-6
Thursday: Tampa Bay (-190) beat Tampa Bay 6-0
Of course, knowing just the teams isn’t enough for you to understand what I was doing. Let’s run a list of the starting pitchers I invested in:
Sale and McDonald are both young stars who are having fantastic seasons this year. They’ve been extremely underpriced this year for a variety of reasons:
*Neither is an established veteran with an All-Star reputation
*Neither plays for a team that was expected to contend for championships this year
*Neither plays for a team that’s on ESPN or the MLB Network a lot
Man, good pitchers in Central Divisions can be STEALS for weeks because they just don’t get any media coverage! Sale and McDonald have both been good to me often this season.
Halladay is obviously a stud pitcher. I was hoping he’d be fresh and sharp after a long rest break. The fact that he was facing an off-rotation fill-in for the Dodgers made my edge so big that it didn’t matter that Halladay could only go five innings. The Phils still won the game.
You know Price of Tampa Bay is very hard to hit at home. I believed the incentive factor was very strong there for the Rays as well….as they were coming off a home loss while Cleveland was in a get-away game. The Indians had already earned at least a road split in this four-game series. Tampa Bay had a big pitching edge over Jiminez AND a big motivational advantage as well.
The fifth and final pitcher I backed was Porcello of Detroit. Honestly, that was more of a vote AGAINST Santana of the LA Angels. And, I also liked having Detroit at home facing the jet-lagged Angels in a letdown spot after a road win against the Yankees.
PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS (pitching edges)
THE MOTIVATION FACTOR
Those are the hallmarks of Advanced Handicapping in the sport of baseball. I never laid -200 or more, and was below -170 in four of the five games. I had a pitching advantage in ALL FIVE matchups, with what could be called significant pitching advantages in four of them. I was backing playoff contenders who needed to win in four of the five games (and a guy who’s annually a Cy Young candidate in the other).
No handicapping methodology wins 100% of the time. And, I’m not going to suggest to you that a 5-0 string means I’m on the way to 10-0, 15-0, or 20-0. But, I’m extremely confident that you’ll come out way ahead over the long haul by applying the fundamentals of Advanced Handicapping to your personal approach. Sometimes I’ll talk in generalities. Today let you see some specific real world examples of what I emphasize.
No, I’m not referencing every little thing that went into the plays. Each of these blockbuster selections had even more going for it that what I’ve discussed. Those were the keys to pushing games from 25-Unit or 50-Unit status up to 100-Unit status. I’ll talk about those in general in future reports, but I don’t want to let oddsmakers know specifics NOW, this close to the conclusion of those games.
For now…be aware that value advantages are available on a daily basis. Be aware that oddsmakers will consistently underrate certain pitchers. And, be aware that focusing your studies on the most high impact players will help you see mismatches where the Vegas line has no chance to be correct.
And, be aware that Kelso Sturgeon will continue to unleash big play bombshells on the market on a near-daily basis for the foreseeable future!
You can purchase those daily right here at the website with your credit card. Or, sign up for the rest of the season and pay a ridiculously low rate. Don’t forget to check on early-bird rates for 2012 football as well.
My next lecture in my College of Advanced Handicapping will be Tuesday. That will probably be a football report as we devote some of our summer to baseball, and some to preparing for the coming college and pro campaigns on the gridiron. But, the “read and react” approach we’ve been using since these lessons started several months ago provide great flexibility. If something important happens in baseball the next few days, we’ll adjust on the fly as needed.
Don’t forget to print out every report from this twice-a-week feature so you can create a virtual textbook that can be referred to time and time again in the coming seasons. I wouldn’t be the Dean of the College of Advanced Handicapping if not for great students like YOU!