Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Thursday, July 25, 2013 at 4:00 PM
Generally speaking, I’m not an avid proponent of what’s called “streak” handicapping out here in Las Vegas. Hey…if a team is being good to you, and you want to keep riding them…there’s nothing wrong with that. But, I've seen far too many people here in the gambling capital of the world try to use that approach as a shortcut.
My College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping promotes:
*Find advantages in the areas of PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS
*Find advantages in THE MOTIVATION FACTOR
*Attack lines that can’t properly adjust for the true size of those edges
The Streak Theory promotes:
*Ride teams on a winning streak until they lose
*Fade teams on a losing streak until they win
*Never learning anything about how games are really won or lost!
To me, focusing on streaks is the opposite of handicapping. There’s no thought involved. You’re just hoping that a few very long streaks make up for all the streaks that end as soon as you jump on the bandwagon. It’s not “advanced” handicapping by any means.
If you’re focused on the right things…you’ll be getting your money in with an advantage even if the team isn’t on a streak! You don’t only want to be betting on the best PAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS when they happen to be on a winning streak. Heck, the fact that they lost the prior day might make them play better!
I bring this up now because the media has been talking a lot about the recent win streak for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Tampa Bay lost a game in Boston…but they’ve had a few good win streaks within their recent surge. Those two teams are really on a tear right now…which is going to get too many “lazy” bettors thinking about the streak theory again.
The Dodgers and Ray’s aren’t winning because there’s some sort of “magic” to playing “hot” baseball. They got some important GAMEBREAKERS healthy at just the right time. As many Major League teams are starting to go through the motions because they’re out of the pennant race, the Dodgers and Rays are making sure they will be in a pennant race by bringing peak MOTIVATION with a ton of talent to the field every day.
You may have noticed that other top teams are getting results since the All-Star Break, while a few also-rans are continuing to fall in the wrong direction. THIS is going to be the story of the coming weeks. It happens every year. Good teams playing games that MATTER are going to get results against mediocre teams just going through the motions. You shouldn’t be worrying about whether a “streak” is on the line or not. You should be trying to find these blowout situations so you can exploit them.
*Don’t be afraid of favorite prices if the market is still posting too low of a price.
*Don’t be afraid to lay -1.5 runs at lower juice if this is truly a blowout situation.
*Remember to look for non-contenders who are still giving an effort…these teams can be STEALS!
*Remember to factor totals into the mix if your big edge involves an explosive offense (think OVER) or a dominating pitcher (think UNDER).
Regarding the option of laying -1.5 runs. After the Toronto series, the Los Angeles Dodgers were 23-5 their last 28 games. If you had laid -1.5 runs at lower juice, you still would have gone 18-10. Tampa Bay is 22-5 its last 27 games. They’d still be 16-11 after laying -1.5 runs. Now, I would never suggesting laying -1.5 runs as a blanket strategy. You ONLY want to do that in BLOWOUT scenarios. But, the Dodgers and Rays are playing so well lately that they’ve gone 34-21 laying -1.5 runs even though they weren’t often in blowout scenarios.
Squares in Las Vegas hoping the streak theory works are praying that a lazy shortcut can make them a winner. Students of my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping have already seen how well hard work pays off…and they’re positioned to cash in even more in the final months of the 2013 baseball season regardless of whether or not long streaks happen. Aren’t YOU glad you’re a student!
As always, if you need additional assistance finding the best plays on the board, you can sign up for my personal service here at this website. Make a few clicks and have your major credit card handy. Be sure to check on early-bird football rates!
We’ll probably be talking football the next time we’re together early next week. The NFL Preseason starts a week from Sunday, which means it’s time to really get focused on pro football coursework. Thanks again for your loyal attendance. The Dean of Sports Handicapping is continually gratified by your overwhelming response to this web feature.