Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, June 28, 2013 at 2:00 PM
Las Vegas is starting to discuss the popular wagering proposition of regular season wins for college football teams. Numbers are going up offshore…which means that they’ll be widely available here in Vegas very soon. That makes this weekend the perfect time to outline some Advanced Handicapping concepts for those of you thinking about betting Overs and Unders on team victories.
First, if you’re new to these propositions, you need to remember that they involve regular season games only. Potential bowl games aren’t counted, nor are conference championship games. So, if you see something like Oregon 11.5…that means an Over bet would have to go 12-0 in the regular season to win. You can’t think to yourself “hey, it will be easy to get past 11.5 wins if Oregon wins the Pac 12 Championship game and their bowl.” I know many of you are aware of this already. But, my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping attracts new novices every day…and I want to make that clear to our newcomers.
*Remember that your money will be tied up for months with this kind of bet. If you put $100 on the Over for your favorite team…that’s $100 you can’t use in the opening week…or when conference play begins…or during the rivalry games near the end of the season. One of the keys to Advanced Handicapping profit comes from the ability to pyramid winnings through the season. Betting this proposition freezes your amount in a way that it can only double if you’re right. If you’re on a tight budget as a newcomer, you may prefer to hold off on these until a future season.
*The public tends to bet Overs, so oddsmakers tend to inflate the lines in that direction. Historically, the best value on these has been to bet Unders. You’re typically getting the best of it by looking for bad things to happen rather than good. It will usually take everything going right for a team to cash its Over ticket…where any sequence of bad luck in close games or injuries will take them out of the running.
*Reality is most volatile when there’s been a coaching change. Some mediocre teams will suddenly get very good. Some previously good teams will fall back if their coach left for greener pastures (either the NFL or a bigger conference). Focus on those areas to attack. Vegas oddsmakers are best when there are a lot of known quantities…worst when there are question marks all over the place.
*Depth of personnel is a nice hidden indicator for this prop. Hopefully you’ve already been studying the upcoming season (the Preseason annuals have been on newsstands for a few weeks). You should have a sense now of depth at the skill positions (PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS), as well as overall team experience. Teams who lack depth will typically wear down in the final month, making it tougher to reach their market price. Teams with a lot of depth offer more insurance.
*Generally speaking, bettors are too confident in the summer about their college football projections. They’ll be right about a few things…but several surprises are in store for those who overrate their own expertise. Unless you’re a true longtime sharp, ONLY bet your strongest opinions. The vigorish is high on these…which means it’s dumb to bet leans. Heck, the fact that your money is tied up for so many months is already a strike against investing in your leans. Don’t let your enthusiasm for football (and arrogance about your own abilities) lead to a bad betting strategy.
To sum up:
*Conservatively bet Unders for teams with coaching changes or who lack depth
*Only bet Overs if you’re extremely confident things are going to fall into place for a team that has a lot of team depth, multiple playmakers, and perhaps an enthusiastic new coach who represents an improvement over his predecessor.
I’ll be talking about both football and baseball through the summer here in our coursework. Don’t forget that you can purchase daily baseball opinions or a full season football package right here at the website with your major credit card. The Dean of Sports Handicapping is always ready to assist do-it-yourselfers with additional guidance.
See you again next week. Thanks again for all of your hard work here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping.