Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, June 21, 2013 at 2:00 PM
We’ve reached a point in the Major League Baseball season now where Advanced Sports Bettors should be seeing great Las Vegas bets jumping off the schedule at them. The strengths of all the teams are known. It’s clear who the best pitchers are (the guys you want to invest in). And, it’s very clear that a lot of rotation spots are currently reflecting “desperation” on the part of various teams.
These are the groups of starting pitchers you should be betting against very aggressively:
*BACK-END STARTERS WITH POOR ERA’S
Some teams just don’t have any options, so they keep rolling out bad pitchers to the mound every fifth day. Even though the ERA’s are poor. Even though they’re just not getting people out…the team knows that there aren’t any better options right now from long relief of the minor leagues.
I’ve been extremely surprised this year by how many long time veterans are getting pulled off the scrap heap and given starting spots. Maybe Chien-Ming Wang needed a few years off to remember how to pitch. Maybe Jeremy Bonderman suddenly found himself. The most likely scenario though for veteran mediocrities (and worse) is that they’re going to get hit hard before being asked to leave one more time. That doesn’t mean they’ll lose 100% of the time, or even be ineffective 100% of the time. They will eventually be exposed though…and you’re likely to win a lot more than you lose by fading them.
*MINOR LEAGUE CALL-UPS
Now, there are a few potential phenoms getting called up midseason now because their franchise believe they got enough seasoning in April, May, and most of June. But, MOST minor-league call-ups aren’t ready yet to shine at this level. For every young phenom, there are four or five guys who will get shots and get hit hard. If you do some research, you’ll know who the phenoms are…and you can avoid fading them (the market usually tells you, because the sharps KNOW!). Even if you’re flying blind though, fading minor league call-ups loses more than it wins. Sometimes those phenoms are oversold by teams and their local media.
I expect to be releasing several MAJOR releases in the coming weeks (50-unit, 100-unit, and even 200-unit) where I will be going against the worst pitchers in current rotations. I’ll be looking to exploit these scenarios:
*FADE BAD PITCHERS VS. THE BEST OFFENSES
There are about 8-10 offenses right now in the majors who just crush bad pitching. Oddsmakers can’t make the lines high enough when these matchups occur. Those best offenses will have 4-5 runs in the first few innings and coast to easy wins. Remember that lighting up a bad starting pitcher can often lead to huge victory margins because it’s the worst long relievers who come in to replace him! Consider laying -1.5 runs in these games at lower juice because run-lines aren’t affected by blowouts.
*FADE BAD PITCHERS IN HITTER’S PARKS
You can even go against these guys with mediocre or worse offenses if the game is being played in a hitter’s park. Poor starters allow home runs in the band boxes. They allow big innings with a lot of hits in the parks with the best visibility (particularly in day games). Even the lowly Houston Astros are scoring runs at home against bad pitchers because of the short dimensions.
*FADE BAD PITCHERS ON GETAWAY DAYS
It’s hard enough for a team to play focused on a getaway day. If they have no confidence in their starting pitcher, they often just go in the tank because they know a win is such a longshot. They fall behind early…then the game races to conclusion. A team in a pennant race is a virtual lock against any losing team throwing a desperation starter in a getaway spot.
We’ll talk a lot more about baseball in the coming days since the basketball season ended with the classic finale in Spurs/Heat this past Thursday Night. I’ll also mix in some early-bird football as we gear up for college and pro action. If you’d like some help picking winners in baseball, or you’re interested in seasonal packages in either sport…more information is just a few clicks away right here at this very website.
Back with you again early next week with more coursework. See if YOU can find some big plays on the diamonds this week with the guidelines I’ve outlined for you today. And, remember to print out every edition of my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping so you can create a virtual textbook you can refer to in years to come. If you’re reading this, you have what it takes to become a professional!