Submitted by Jim Hurley on Thursday, June 20, 2013 at 7:00 AM
Though it seemed both the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat left everything on the floor Tuesday Night in a dramatic Game Six that will go down in history as one of the greatest NBA games ever, both teams must come back just two nights later to determine the 2013 league champion.
Left everything on the floor? How about a shoe (Mike Miller) and a headband (LeBron James)!
It truly was a game for the ages, with legacy issues very much in play for future Hall-of-Famers on both teams. Who will be able to come back strongest on short rest? Answer that question, and you’ve probably picked the straight up and pointspread winner.
*Each team’s stars played a lot of minutes Tuesday…AND Sunday just two days earlier. This is the third game in five days. Will there be any gas left in either tank (and, if there isn’t, does that mean the Under is a great bet?).
*Each team has shown a tendency to play nervous when in position to win. San Antonio blew TWO late leads. Miami had seemingly regained control late in the fourth quarter only to give it away until a fortunate last second rally bailed them out. Veterans shouldn’t panic. Yet…we have Manu Ginobili on one side running around frantically, while either LeBron James or Dwyane Wade sometimes settle for a fall-away jumper at the wrong time on the other. If the bodies are up the challenge, are the brains? Coming back the strongest means MENTAL strength too.
Let’s get to the numbers…
SAN ANTONIO at MIAMI
Vegas Line: Miami by 6, total of 189
Series Tied 3-3
The market is still giving Miami credit for being the better team, though you’d be hardpressed to make that case in this series. It’s been very even overall, and was certainly very even Tuesday through the fourth quarter and overtime. On the one hand…Miami may not be any better than San Antonio…and their home court advantage may not be worth more than 1-2 points (this series is 1-1-1 on this floor in regulation). But, on the other, NBA Playoff history tends to favor the host in a seventh game. It’s VERY difficult for a road team to get the job done in the modern era. The market price seems to be a compromise between the realities of this series, and the recent history of past game sevens.
The total is down a bit from the last game (which closed at 191.5), but may drop more by the time you read this…or by tipoff. Sharps generally bet Unders in Game Sevens…and are generally rewarded!
Average Result: San Antonio by 2.5 in regulation
Average Total: 194.5 in regulation
Those are “neutralized” numbers once again because we’ve played three games at each site. The Spurs have gotten slightly the better of it. But, that’s because they won a blowout by 36 points while Miami’s best blowout was only 19 points. Spurs fans will point out that San Antonio has a 3-2-1 advantage at the end of regulation, having only lost twice in 48 minutes through the first six games.
The average combined scoring total has been 194.5 in regulation…but we haven’t actually had a game that landed within a bucket of that. From low to high, the scoreboard totals after 48 minutes have been 180, 187, 190, 190, 202, and 218. The market is very near the midpoints of that number line for Game Seven. If you believe that Game Sevens slow down and have fewer free throws, you might consider the Under. Then, again, if you think everyone’s too tired to play defense, who knows?!
JIM HURLEY makes it his job to know what’s going to happen in every major sporting event. And, you don’t get much more major than a championship game for all the marbles. You can purchase the final word throughout the day Thursday right here at the website with your credit card. If you’d like to talk to a representative about adding Game Seven to any longer term baseball or early-bird football package, call us in the office at 1-800-323-4453.
Back with you Friday to preview the Texas Rangers/St. Louis Cardinals Interleague series in Major League Baseball. That seems fitting…as there are fans of both the Spurs and the Rangers who know what its’ like to believe a championship’s been won only to watch it turn to dust…with that Rangers heartbreak coming against the Cardinals.
For now…the main focus is on a game that people will be talking about for decades. Game Seven of San Antonio/Miami. When championships are on the line, YOU NEED WORLD CHAMPION HANDICAPPER JIM HURLEY!