Submitted by Jim Hurley on Saturday, June 15, 2013 at 7:00 PM
The 2013 NBA Finals has been a series of extremes, with fantastic performances from both teams mixed in with absolute duds. San Antonio may never play better than they did in Game Three when a 16 of 32 barrage from three-point land led them to a 36-point win. But, we may never see better from the “big three” of the Miami Heat than what LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh did on BOTH sides of the floor in Game Four.
Two great teams bringing out the best in each other.
Though…the highs and lows of those bests have been so dramatic that we’ve only had one close game! That was way back in the opener when a fresh and rested San Antonio side won the last few minutes against tired Miami to eke out a four-point win. Since then, the victory margins have been 19, 36, and 16 points, with neither team able to win two games in a row.
Miami hopes they can end that particular trend tonight. They will HAVE to win two games in a row at some point if they want to win the title because it was San Antonio that enjoyed the see-saw ride first. If these two teams keep alternating wins…then the Spurs win 4-3 with a Game Seven victory in South Beach. Miami must either win Sunday’s Game Five on the heels of their Game Four win…or then Games Six and Seven consecutively at home if they fall behind 3-2 in Texas.
Let’s get caught up with the numbers…
MIAMI at SAN ANTONIO
Vegas Line: Miami by 1, total of 188
Series Tied 2-2
Miami was bet to a favorite back on Thursday because the whole world wanted to bet the zig-zag, and because there was a chance Tony Parker wouldn’t be at 100%. He was fairly close to full health based on the way he played…but he was shut down by double teams in the second half and ultimately sat out much of the fourth quarter. It’s possibly telling that the market HASN’T been betting the bounce-back so far in this one. There seems to be an assumption that Miami now realizes the level is has to reach if they want to win this series...and they’re going to reach it.
Average Result: San Antonio by 1.3
Average Total: 189.8
Those numbers are “neutralized” through four games, with two games at each site. If you believe San Antonio should get something for home court…then you’d get a projection higher than Spurs by 1.3. Of course, it took a zillion three-pointers in a blowout win to push that average to San Antonio’s side of the ledger. If you’re picking the Spurs, you’d better be rooting for more treys!
Referees started calling some fouls in Game Four, which yielded the first total over 200 in an individual game so far.
Game One: 180 points with 35 free throw attempts
Game Two: 187 points with 28 free throw attempts
Game Three: 190 points with 29 free throw attempts
Game Four: 202 points with 48 free throw attempts
Playoff totals are often at the mercy of how officials call games. That sets up potential extremes for Game Five. No whistles with intense defense could skew the number down into the 170’s (or even lower), while whistles plus good shooting could fly into the 210’s or higher.
JIM HURLEY has made sure to cover all the possible angles for this critical fifth game. He knows everyone watching on TV wants to win their Las Vegas bets! He’s talked to his scouts, his sources, his statheads, his computer programmers, and his Wise Guy connections to make sure all the ducks are in a row. You can purchase the final word during the day Sunday here at the website. Be sure to check out a busy day of baseball too. The day-night schedule allows you to build bankroll in afternoon baseball that you can re-invest in night time baskets.
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Back with you Monday to preview a showcase series in Major League Baseball. There are actually THREE important matchups that begin Monday Night: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, Baltimore at Detroit, and Oakland at Texas. We’ll let weekend results play a role in determining which of those gets spotlight coverage. Tuesday will feature a look at Game Six of the NBA Finals, which is guaranteed to happen since we’re tied at two.
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