Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, July 24, 2012 at 1:25 PM
With the NFL Preseason now less than two weeks away, this is the perfect time for you to start bearing down and really focusing on handicapping the exhibition slate. I’ve found over the years that August can be one of the most lucrative months in all of Las Vegas wagering because my Advanced Principals work so well in what too many ignoramuses call “meaningless” games.
Here’s a list of things you should be doing RIGHT NOW to get ready for the NFL Preseason.
*Make a list of all new head coaches. You need to have these teams on your radar right away because new coaches are most likely to emphasize results in early action. Veterans know that it doesn’t matter who wins or loses these games in the big picture. Some, even many, NEW head coaches want to establish a winning tone right away. Yes, that winning tone often turns out to be an illusion! But, that’s a problem they’ll have to deal with in September and October. You’re looking to find teams who are going to play to impress in August.
*Use that list to make notes on all the new head coaches as they start talking to the press in the lead up to action. Many will make it clear that they expect peak intensity from everyone because all the jobs are up for grabs. Coaches will often come right out and tell you they’re going to cover early Preseason spreads. Make sure you’re listening.
*With all the other NFL head coaches, go through their personal Preseason histories to get a read on how they prioritize each week of the exhibition slate.
Do they have a history of blowing off the opener?
Do they have a history of blowing off the first TWO games?
Do they have a history of going hard in Week Three’s dress rehearsal?
Do they have a history of blowing off Week Four?
You’ll be surprised how often making a score in August involves knowing who cares the LEAST about a game. You fade those teams and collect the money. Many longtime veterans have very clear histories showing how they prioritize the four-game set. Get in synch with their style, and the winners just pick themselves.
*Write up the quarterback rotations for all 32 teams, with an emphasis on knowing who is going to be playing in the second half in Weeks One and Two. You’ll want to back experienced veterans who are fighting for jobs, because they’re most likely to put up good numbers vs. the vanilla defenses that are used in August. You won’t want to back rookies, because they will have trouble even vs. the vanilla defenses during their transition process. Weeks One and Two always have many SECOND HALF BLOWOUTS because of quarterback mismatches in games that are lined near pick-em. Easy money.
*Try to add Over/Under bets to your Las Vegas arsenal. Too many casual bettors pass on totals bets in August because they hate watching guys they’ve never heard of determine their bet. They don’t want to root for sloppy offenses to score. They don’t want to root for rusty defenses to stop people. They HATE totals. Huge mistake. Some very clear tendencies have developed in recent years regarding the urge for many teams to get the games over with as quickly as possible to avoid injuries. This leads to UNDERS. But, there are a few teams who like opening up their offense so they can get a look at a variety of receiving weapons. These teams play OVERS. Instead of passing all 16 Over/Under options each week…try passing 13-14 of them and attacking the two or three that have the most going for them. You might not like betting “Under 32” in August…but you’ll love it when the game ends 10-6!
I’ve given you general guidelines today that will help you find success in NFL Preseason action this year and every year. I’m sorry, but there’s just no way I’m going to get specific with individual coaches or my best individual team angles. I must protect that information for my paying clients. I already have a few games circled EVERY WEEK for very serious play in the 2012 Preseason. Barring injuries, my major releases are mostly set. I’ll tinker with the plans as I hear more from the new coaches. Maybe a backup QB will impress me so much in Week One that I’ll add his team to my list in Week Two. Build a great gameplan. Have the confidence to read and react. Those are the fundamentals of winning football and Advanced Handicapping.
If you’re concerned that you’re going to miss out on August’s best bets, you can sign up for my football service right here at this website. Early bird rates are available. I won’t be saying that much longer because the season will be starting soon!
My next lecture in my College of Advanced Handicapping will be Friday. I’ve currently scheduled a baseball topic for that report. But, that is subject to change if developments warrant. I’m always trying to balance the needs of preparing you for the future, reacting to the present, and understanding the past. All three are vital in the Advanced Handicapping philosophy.
See you later in the week. Please remember that the hard work you’re doing now will be greatly rewarded very soon.