Submitted by Jim Hurley on Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:00 AM
If you watched Tuesday Night’s fifth game of the Golden State/San Antonio series, you saw a very tired Seth Curry stagger through a tough night on both sides of the ball. His constant chasing on defense turned into constantly being beaten. He lost his form on offense, leading to a 1 of 7 night on three-pointers and 4 of 14 overall.
We talked about the role fatigue has played with Kevin Durant in the Oklahoma City/Memphis series in yesterday’s edition of the NOTEBOOK. Obviously Curry is dealing with the same cloud. Interesting that both are pure shooters…with skinny arms…who spent most of their youth working perfecting jump shots rather than practicing defense. Durant’s height gives him an edge because he can shoot over a certain percentage of defenders. Curry has to get himself open looks. San Antonio’s stopped allowing those for awhile now.
STEPHEN CURRY’S SHOOTING THIS SERIES
Game One: 6 of 14 on treys, 18 of 35 overall
Game Two: 2 of 6 on treys, 7 of 20 overall
Game Three: 3 of 9 on treys, 5 of 17 overall
Game Four: 5 of 10 on treys, 7 of 15 overall
Game Five: 1 of 7 on treys, 4 of 14 overall
The Spurs learned their lesson in the series opener. Even though San Antonio rallied to steal that game in overtime…it was clear that there were going to be in big trouble in the series if they were going to let one of the best pure shooters in league history take 35 shots.
From that point on, they:
*Guarded him with a passion
*Made him run constantly through picks and screens when he was on defense
*Caught a huge break when he turned another ankle!
Since Game One, Curry is 11 of 32 on treys, 23 of 66 overall. And, that 12 of 34 on two’s is telling because it’s showing you that Curry can’t free himself up for layups or good looks inside. When he drives, he MISSES about two-thirds of the time.
Given what you’ve just read about Curry’s faded production since Coach Gregg Popovich made his chess moves, can you see Golden State winning the next TWO in this series? A possible ace up Golden State’s sleeve is the fact that Game Seven isn’t scheduled into Sunday if things get that far. That would give Curry an extra day to rest.
Before you can think about two games, you have to think about one…Thursday’s Game Six that will either send the San Antonio Spurs to Western Conference Finals, or create a potentially thrilling Game Seven this weekend.
GOLDEN STATE at SAN ANTONIO
Vegas Line: San Antonio by 1, total of 196
San Antonio Leads 3-2
That market estimate splits the difference between “Curry is gassed and the Spurs will wrap it up,” and “Curry will bounce back and the Warriors will even the series.” The Spurs have already won by 10 on that floor, and could again if Golden State has thrown in the towel after hitting a wall. The Spurs, frankly, haven’t established superiority when Curry can move and shoot. If he finds his legs, or if the Spurs defense hits its own wall after playing four very good games…then Game Seven could be something special.
Average Result: San Antonio by 3.8 in regulation
Average Total: 193 in regulation
That average result is a bit misleading because the Spurs just won the last game by 18. The “midpoint” result of the five games is an overtime tie, of which there have already been two.
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