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Submitted by Jim Hurley on Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 7:00 AM

If you watched Tuesday Night’s fifth game of the Golden State/San Antonio series, you saw a very tired Seth Curry stagger through a tough night on both sides of the ball. His constant chasing on defense turned into constantly being beaten. He lost his form on offense, leading to a 1 of 7 night on three-pointers and 4 of 14 overall.

We talked about the role fatigue has played with Kevin Durant in the Oklahoma City/Memphis series in yesterday’s edition of the NOTEBOOK. Obviously Curry is dealing with the same cloud. Interesting that both are pure shooters…with skinny arms…who spent most of their youth working perfecting jump shots rather than practicing defense. Durant’s height gives him an edge because he can shoot over a certain percentage of defenders. Curry has to get himself open looks. San Antonio’s stopped allowing those for awhile now.

 

STEPHEN CURRY’S SHOOTING THIS SERIES

Game One: 6 of 14 on treys, 18 of 35 overall

Game Two: 2 of 6 on treys, 7 of 20 overall

Game Three: 3 of 9 on treys, 5 of 17 overall

Game Four: 5 of 10 on treys, 7 of 15 overall

Game Five: 1 of 7 on treys, 4 of 14 overall

The Spurs learned their lesson in the series opener. Even though San Antonio rallied to steal that game in overtime…it was clear that there were going to be in big trouble in the series if they were going to let one of the best pure shooters in league history take 35 shots.

 

From that point on, they:

*Guarded him with a passion

*Made him run constantly through picks and screens when he was on defense

*Caught a huge break when he turned another ankle!

Since Game One, Curry is 11 of 32 on treys, 23 of 66 overall. And, that 12 of 34 on two’s is telling because it’s showing you that Curry can’t free himself up for layups or good looks inside. When he drives, he MISSES about two-thirds of the time.

Given what you’ve just read about Curry’s faded production since Coach Gregg Popovich made his chess moves, can you see Golden State winning the next TWO in this series? A possible ace up Golden State’s sleeve is the fact that Game Seven isn’t scheduled into Sunday if things get that far. That would give Curry an extra day to rest.

Before you can think about two games, you have to think about one…Thursday’s Game Six that will either send the San Antonio Spurs to Western Conference Finals, or create a potentially thrilling Game Seven this weekend.

 

GAME SIX

GOLDEN STATE at SAN ANTONIO

Vegas Line: San Antonio by 1, total of 196

San Antonio Leads 3-2

That market estimate splits the difference between “Curry is gassed and the Spurs will wrap it up,” and “Curry will bounce back and the Warriors will even the series.” The Spurs have already won by 10 on that floor, and could again if Golden State has thrown in the towel after hitting a wall. The Spurs, frankly, haven’t established superiority when Curry can move and shoot. If he finds his legs, or if the Spurs defense hits its own wall after playing four very good games…then Game Seven could be something special.

 

Average Result: San Antonio by 3.8 in regulation

Average Total: 193 in regulation

That average result is a bit misleading because the Spurs just won the last game by 18. The “midpoint” result of the five games is an overtime tie, of which there have already been two.

JIM HURLEY utilizes a TEAM HANDICAPPING approach that can’t be found anywhere in the industry. His on-site sources are providing insights on both teams. His historians are running through side and total results for all prior Game Six showdowns in this price range. His statheads are running numbers like you saw above for Curry for ALL relevant contributors in this series. His computer programmers are running simulations around the clock for all playoff matchups. And, his Wise Guy sources offshore and in Las Vegas are letting him know what the smart money is doing.

That juggernaut of insight will come together to find your best side and total options in this game and Indiana/New York. Purchase those picks plus baseball right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call us in the office at 1-800-323-4453. Be sure to ask about Saturday’s Preakness Stakes when you call.

Back with you Friday for more basketball or a special baseball report. If you’ve enjoyed our playoff coverage so far, you’ll LOVE what’s coming up in the Conference Finals! Visit the NOTEBOOK daily so you know what’s REALLY happening in the world of sports. And, link up with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK for BIG, JUICY WINNERS!

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