Submitted by Jim Hurley on Friday, May 10, 2013 at 7:00 AM
The betting markets in Las Vegas and offshore never accepted the Golden State Warriors as being superior to the Denver Nuggets…even as the new kids on the block were covering EVERY single pointspread in the series!
Golden State was seen as inferior even though:
*They led by 12 points on the scoreboard after two games in Denver
*They led by 28 points on the scoreboard after four games (two at each site)
*They led by 25 points on the scoreboard after six games (three at each site)
Golden State’s average performance vs. Denver was a 4-point victory. That’s not one or two fluke victories. That’s a 4-2 series triumph while establishing a consistent advantage. Regardless of what everyone’s Power Ratings had said before the series (where apparently the whole world didn’t realize the difference that having a healthy Andrew Bogut makes), the clear current reality was that Golden State was better than Denver in terms of “playoff” basketball.
Better three-point shooting
Now we’re two games into the San Antonio, and the same pattern is emerging. Golden State is up by seven points on the scoreboard…and that’s with a pair of horrible fourth quarters. The Warriors have won most quarters! Once again, this is happening on the ROAD. Do you know how hard it is to be +12 on the ROAD after FIVE games against the likes of Denver and San Antonio? If you’re better on the road, what does that mean for neutral courts, or at home?
Maybe San Antonio was rusty after the long layoff. Maybe San Antonio will be better positioned later in the series when experience and “getting respect from the refs” will loom larger. Maybe Coach Pop will figure out a defensive gameplan that will get a finger into every hole in the dike. But, handicappers and sports bettors need to be open to the possibility that Golden State is the better team right now. The loss of David Lee only meant losing a horrible defender who was significantly overrated by the media. A healthy Bogut puts them into the “defense and rebounding wins championships” category, buttressed by great long range shooting.
GAME THREE: SAN ANTONIO at GOLDEN STATE
Vegas Line: Golden State by 2, total of 203.5
Series Tied 1-1
Oddsmakers opened the line at San Antonio -1, which tells you that they’re still being stubborn about dissing a team that’s 8-0 against the spread in the playoffs! Sharp money bet the line all the way up to the Warriors by two. Keep an eye on the board in the hours leading up to tipoff to see if the public gets involved. This is now a high profile series…and public money can hit the NBA board on Friday Night’s as a weekend gets started.
JIM HURLEY is working closely with his NETWORK team to cover this game from every angle. Should bettors just keep riding the Golden State streak until it ends? Is THIS the game where San Antonio’s experience finally starts to pay off? What about energy? Golden State’s starting to get drained because a handful of guys are doing the heavy lifting (Steph Curry never got his legs back in Game Two after playing 58 minutes in Game One). Was the market adjustment too much, meaning that Warrior value is FINALLY out of the number?
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Back Saturday with a look at Game Three of New York/Indiana. Oddsmakers are having trouble getting reads on all the teams. Longtime sharps are finding out their preferred strategies aren’t working any more. The money is there for the taking if you understand basketball as it’s being played right NOW! Perfect for the exclusive TEAM HANDICAPPING APPROACH of JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!