Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, July 27, 2012 at 12:48 PM
I’m 10-2 over my last 12 major baseball releases…and the secret to my success has been finding dominating scenarios where Las Vegas oddsmakers have underpriced a clear favorite. You’ve heard from too many “experts” over the years that the key to beating the book is focusing underdogs and grinding out a profit. I’ve proven that wrong for decades. And, fine-tuning my Principles of Advanced Handicapping in recent years has helped me and my clients find the true blockbuster situations that allow you to step out with very big investments on plays that are very close to being true locks.
Now, there’s no such thing as an absolute lock. One of your key GAMEBREAKERS might get injured very early in a game, changing the dynamic. Luck exists in all sports, and sometimes you catch several bad breaks in the same game. But, those take care of themselves over time (because sometimes the OTHER team suffers an early injury, and sometimes the OTHER team suffers a string of bad breaks!). Generally speaking, if I tell you I’ve found a baseball team that’s going to win 75% of the time…then they’ll go 9-3 over the next 12 occurrences. If I tell you I have an 80% situation…we’re looking at 8-2 over the next ten. My numbers are RIGHT!
And, in baseball, being right will put you on superior teams in great situations at favorite prices. That’s because:
A 75% scenario should see a moneyline price of -300 on the favorite
An 80% scenario should see a moneyline price of -400 on the favorite
A 90% scenario should see a moneyline price of -900 on the favorite
You don’t see many prices that high in the bases. My huge Thursday Night play on Pittsburgh over Houston was only at -170. For a pennant contender with a good pitcher facing a Minor League caliber team that had been 2-22 its prior 24 games. MINUS ONE-SEVENTY, ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!
Here are the types of favorites Advanced Handicappers should be looking to invest in down the stretch in Major League Baseball:
PENNANT CONTENDERS WHO
Are playing well lately
Have healthy PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS in their offensive lineup
Are throwing a quality pitcher who’s in good health (pitching GAMEBREAKERS)
Aren’t in an obvious lookahead or letdown situation emotionally
Now, remember to be picky here. Don’t just go betting all contenders assuming they have gamebreakers and are playing with a “must win” mentality. Use the checklist! You want the most dynamic teams in the best situations. Notice that I’ve been having about one monster release per day…not four or five. We’re not taking every contender against every non-contender. We’re looking to make big investments when multiple characteristics line up.
And here are the teams you should be looking to fade…
Are below .500 over the past 10-20 days or longer
Have few offensive weapons
Are throwing mediocre pitchers or worse
Have unenthusiastic body language or are the subject of negative media reports about chemistry
Again, be picky. The Cubs and Padres have bad full season records and aren’t contending for the playoffs. Yet, they have winning records over the last month and are playing with enthusiasm. You want to bet against the worst of the non-contenders who are clearly suffering through the dog days of summer.
When the best qualifiers in the first group lines up against the worst strugglers in the second group, the price is going to be in the -150 to -190 range on the road…in games where the “true” line should be -250 or higher; and the price is going to be in the -175 to -225 price at home…in games where the “true” line should be -300 or higher. You might think I’m overstating the edge. A 10-2 record on big plays says I’m not! And, if you’ve been watching baseball closely the past few weeks, you know I’m not exaggerating. Many teams are down in the dumps and just going through the motions. Some contenders are playing like every day is the World Series.
I can assure you that more major releases are on the way this weekend here at this website. If you’re having trouble making the final choice each day as to the best big money option, you can purchase my top plays with your credit card. Some of you have time to handicap in depth. Others don’t. I understand that. Everyone reading this has access to top plays from the Dean of Sports Handicapping.
My next lecture in the College of Advanced Handicapping is set for Tuesday. We’ll be mixing baseball and football through the summer. We may have a few football pieces coming up in succession because the Preseason starts a week from Sunday with the Arizona/New Orleans matchup in the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. Be sure to check out my early-bird rates for 2012 football when you get a chance. I’ll do my best to read and react to news developments in both football and baseball so we can talk about them here in the online coursework.
I hope you’ve been printing out every report so you can create a textbook that can be referred to for years to come. The fundamentals of Advanced Handicapping have proven the test of time. They were powerful 10 and 20 years ago. You’ve certainly seen how powerful they are right now in the Major League Baseball season. I look forward to our next visit. See you on Tuesday.