Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, May 1, 2013 at 7:00 AM
Instead of picking out one game and going in depth…let’s update the math from all three series that are in action Wednesday Night. We have a TV Tripleheader of Game Five action. Atlanta and Indiana are knotted up at two games apiece in a series that’s seen nothing but home blowouts. New York and Oklahoma City will try to wrap up their matchups with Boston and Houston respectively on their home floors, enjoying 3-1 series advantages entering the night.
We’ll take the games in schedule order…
7 p.m. ET BOSTON at NEW YORK
Vegas Line: New York by 8, total of 180.5
New York Leads 3-1
The Knicks would have finished off a sweep if Carmelo Anthony hadn’t missed every jumper and free throw he took in the last three minutes of regulation this past Sunday. They are favored by eight tonight, on a floor where they’ve already won by 7 and 16 points in this series.
Average Margin: New York by 9.3 in regulation
Average Total: 163.8 in regulation
The math by itself is very strongly suggesting New York and Under as the Game Five combination. Oddsmakers have missed the totals in this series by a mile in regulation. Can you believe they started in the low 190’s for the series opener! JIM HURLEY is working with his sources to see if Boston’s overtime success rejuvenated the team enough to create some intensity for tonight. A series doesn’t always follow its early math.
8 p.m. ET ATLANTA at INDIANA
Vegas Line: Indiana by 7, total of 188
Series Tied 2-2
An odd series that’s played nowhere near the Vegas line in any one instance. Home teams have been winning by double digits at affordable spreads. Scoring totals have been hopping around depending on how many treys fall. Things should settle in eventually...but three-pointers are fickle, and so apparently are attention-spans in this series.
Average Margin: exactly even
Average Total: 192.5
Funny that four blowouts have led to exactly a 380-380 tie through 192 minutes. The series is as deadlocked as it gets without there being a single compelling game. JIM HURLEY has been coming through the history books to get a sense of best expectations when this kind of thing happens. He knows something that the oddsmakers don’t!
9:30 p.m. ET HOUSTON at OKLAHOMA CITY
Vegas Line: Oklahoma City by 8.5, total of 208
Oklahoma City Leads 3-1
Oklahoma City was favored by 10.5 and 11 in the games that Russell Westbrook started. So, you can see that the market believes he’s worth about 2 points in the big picture. That’s the same adjustment we saw in Houston once it was announced he had to undergo surgery. The Thunder do lead three games to won. But, that’s one blowout with Westbrook at full strength…then three nailbiters after the mid-game injury.
Average Margin: Oklahoma City by 8.3
Average Total: 207.8
Average Margin of Last Three: Oklahoma City by 1.3
Average Total in Last Three: 206.7
Both teams looked tired in the fourth quarter this past Monday Night…which the Thunder won by a very low score of 19-14. Will the legs be gone with only one day off between games? JIM HURLEY is considering the Under in that light…and he’ll be checking with his sources to see if either team is thinking of adjusting their late game strategy.
You can purchase the final word on Wednesday BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. We may have something for you in all three games. But, we never force a play just because a game is on TV. If you have any questions about NETWORK service…basketball or baseball…call us in the office at 1-800-323-4453.
Back with you Thursday to look at Game Six of Brooklyn/Chicago as the Bulls try to score a first round upset in the Windy City. Does either team really want to face Miami?! The man with the playoff answers is JIM HURLEY!