Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, April 8, 2013 at 10:39 AM
One might take the position the fact top-seeded Louisville and 4th-seeded Michigan are playing for the NCAA championship is incentive enough to keep the adrenalin flowing for just another 40 minutes - one more time. That thought may carry weight with the romanticists but for handicappers and bettors it is on a collision course with reality.
There is not the slightest doubt in my mind Louisville took the worst of it physically in its 72-68 come-from-behind win over Wichita State. The Shockers are one of the most physical teams in the game, make all their opponents pay the price and I can assure you they really beat-up on the Cardinals.
Much has been made of the fact Michigan did not play well in its 61-56 Final Four win over Syracuse but few have addressed the fact the Wolverines were taken out of their comfort zone and pressed to the limit to hold on and win. It was not easy and Michigan will pay a price for it.
The bottom line: both these teams are tired and the winner of tonight's game will be the team that makes the other blink first. At some point, one of these teams is going to collapse mentally, lose its focus and get beat.
Louisville opened as either a 3.5-point or 4.0-point favorite, depending on where one bet, and both prices are still out there, with Louisville -4 by far the most prominent number. The total opened at 138.5 and today is being offered at various books at 138, 138.5 and 139.
It goes without saying if you like Michigan to win straight up, with no pointspread involved in the outcome, the money line has to be your play, and an attractive one. The money line on the Wolverines is +165, which means you will collect $165 for each $100 wagered. If you want to make a money line play on Louisville you will have to lay -185, for $185 to win $100.
Michigan 5-0 SU, ATS In Tournament
Michigan is an obviously 5-0 straight up (SU) in the NCAA Tournament and is surprisingly 5-0 against the spread (ATS), including wins over both Kansas and Florida as an underdog. Here is Michigan's NCAA record:
Michigan (-1.5) 61, 4th-seeded Syracuse 56
Michigan (+3) 79, 3rd-seeded Florida 59
Michigan (+1.5) 87,1st-seeded Kansas 85
Michigan (-3.5) 78, 5th-seeded VCU 53
Michigan (-12) 71, 11th-seeded South Dakota State 56
Louisville 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS In Tournament
Louisville obviously is 5-0 SU in the tournament and stands 3-2 ATS. Here is Louisville's record:
Louisville (-10) 72, 9th-seeded Wichita State 68
Louisville (-3.5) 85, 2nd-seeded Duke 63
Louisville (-11) 77, 12th-seeded Oregon 69
Louisville (-10) 82, 8th-seeded Colorado State 56
Louisville (-26) 79, 16th-seeded North Carolina A&T 48
50-Unit Side/Total Parlay On NCAA Championship Game
The Louisville (34-5)-Michigan (31-7) big-time showdown affair is tailor-made for a 50-unit side/total parlay and I am releasing it as just that. This is an excellent opportunity to win a 20-unit bet on the side, a 20-unit bet on the total and then to take it to the house with a 10-unit side/total parlay at odds of 13-5.
This is basketball at its absolute best as these two traditional powers collide and you can go 3-0 with me tonight for just $50, charged to your major credit card. The game tips at 9:20 Eastern time and will be televised nationally on CBS. For the record, I split my two Final Four releases, winning a 25-unit play on underdog Wichita State (+10) which covered in a dramatic 72-68 loss to Louisville while losing a 25-unit play on Syracuse (+2) which failed to cover in a 61-56 loss to Michigan.
Baseball On 8-2 Run Wins Two More Today
My Best Bets Baseball Investment Club got the money in a big way again Sunday as I won my 25-unit Game of the Week with the Oakland Athletics (-158) who knocked off the Houston Astros, 9-3. My second play Sunday, the Chicago Cubs (+130) over the Atlanta Braves lost, 5-1, but it was still a big money day and left me 8-2 over the past five days and up a ton of money - and the winning continues today with two more power plays and you can win them both for just $15, charged to your major credit card.
Better yet, click here to get on board for the entire baseball season and win bets every day right through the World Series for just $199.
My Current 8-2 Run
4/7...25 Units...Athletics (-158) 9, Astros 3 (Win)
4/7...5 Units...Cubs (+130) 1, Braves 5 (Lose)
4/6...10 Units...Tigers (-1.5 Runs +110) 8, Yankees 4 (Win)
4/6...5 Units...Rays (-162) 6, Indians 0 (Win)
4/5...10 Units...Mets (-150) 5, Marlins 7 (Lose)
4/5...5 Units...Athletics (-145) 8, Astros 4 (Win)
4/4...10 Units...Nationals (-1.5 Runs -120) 6, Marlins 1 (Win)
4/4...5 Units...Phillies (+120) 2, Braves 0 (Win)
4/3...Giants-Dodgers Over 7 Runs (Win)
4/3...Nationals (-1.5 Runs -120) 3, Marlins 0 (Win)